fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability - Kickers
David Dorey
August 15, 2006
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Kickers

Placekickers have longed carried the reputation for being hard to predict and it ends up as being quite true - with a few notable exceptions. All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. Kickers receive one point per extra point and three points per field goal.

  2001 Pts 2002 Pts 2003 Pts 2004 Pts 2005 Pts
1 J Wilkins 127 J Feely 138 J Wilkins 163 A Vinatieri 141 J Feely 148
2 M Vanderjagt 125 D Akers 133 M Vanderjagt 157 J Elam 129 N Rackers 140
3 J Elam 124 J Carney 130 M Stover 134 J Reed 124 S Graham 131
4 K Brown 124 R Longwell 128 J Kasay 125 D Akers 122 L Tynes 125
5 M Stover 115 M Gramatica 128 G Anderson 123 S Graham 122 J Kasay 121
6 D Akers 115 S Janikowski 128 J Elam 120 R Longwell 120 M Vanderjagt 121
 
7 J Feely 115 J Elam 120 R Longwell 120 M Vanderjagt 119 J Wilkins 117
8 J Carney 113 M Andersen 117 D Akers 114 R Lindell 117 J Reed 117
9 A Vinatieri 113 A Vinatieri 117 J Brown 114 M Stover 117 J Elam 115
10 P Edinger 112 M Hollis 115 A Vinatieri 112 N Kaeding 114 M Stover 113
11 S Janikowski 111 O Mare 114 M Andersen 106 L Tynes 109 R Lindell 113
12 T Peterson 108 J Nedney 111 S Graham 106 J Brown 109 N Kaeding 112
 
13 J Hall 104 M Bryant 108 D Brien 105 S Janikowski 106 J Brown 110
14 R Longwell 104 J Hall 107 P Edinger 105 D Brien 105 O Mare 108
15 J Cortez 101 R Lindell 107 A Elling 102 J Carney 104 J Scobee 107
16 B Conway 100 J Cortez 103 J Carney 102 P Dawson 100 P Edinger 106
17 M Andersen 98 M Vanderjagt 103 J Hall 101 J Hanson 100 T Peterson 104
18 M Gramatica 97 J Hanson 100 J Reed 100 M Andersen 99 K Brown 102
19 O Mare 96 P Dawson 100 B Cundiff 99 S Christie 99 A Vinatieri 100
20 P Dawson 95 M Stover 96 O Mare 99 J Feely 94 P Dawson 100
21 J Nedney 94 P Edinger 95 S Janikowski 94 N Rackers 94 R Bironas 99
22 R Lindell 93 J Wilkins 94 J Hanson 92 J Scobee 93 J Nedney 97
23 J Kasay 91 G Anderson 90 S Marler 90 B Cundiff 91 J Carney 97
24 W Richey 89 S Christie 89 J Feely 89 J Wilkins 89 M Bryant 94
The Following season: Remained Top 6 Became 7-12 Not in Top 12

Top 6 became Avg. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Top 6 1 1 0 1 1 1
7 to 12 2 1 2 2 2 2
Worse than 12th 3 4 4 3 3 3
7 to 12 became Avg. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Top 6 3 3 1 4 4 2
7 to 12 2 1 2 1 1 3
Worse than 12th 2 2 3 1 1 1
Top 6 was Avg. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Top 6 1 1 0 1 1 1
7 to 12 2 3 1 3 3 2
Worse than 12th 3 2 5 2 2 3

The Top 6 each year is closest to being a guide for who will not be in the Top 6 the following year. Not once in the last five years has more than one kicker repeated in the Top 6 the following year. 2002 had none.

The 7 to 12 range kickers actually fared better at becoming Top 6 than those kickers who just were Top 6. They have been twice as likely and last year were four times as likely to show up in the top tier in 2004 though they fell back to just two last year. However - they had their share of duds as well. Overall, this is the best tier for repeating.

Looking backwards, there's still not a lot to glean that can be relied on. Even if you selected two kickers from the previous Top 12, you'd be lucky to get one of them that remained in the Top 12. One caveat to all of this is that those bad kickers - ranked 24+ in the previous season - can pretty much be ignored the next year safely enough. They just do not rise up enough to warrant any consideration.

Another oddity is how many kickers alternate having big years and down years. There is no real reason for it other than it only takes about 20 points to shift a kicker from being Top 6 to being nothing more than a back-up.

  Repeat Reliability 2002 2003 2004 2005
1 J Elam 7 6 2 7
2 S Graham   12 5 3
3 L Tynes     11 4
4 M Vanderjagt 17 2 7 5
5 A Vinatieri 9 10 1 16
6 J Reed   18 3 6
7 D Akers 2 8 4 23
8 R Longwell 4 7 6 20
9 N Kaeding     10 9
10 M Stover 20 3 9 8
11 J Brown   9 12 10
12 J Feely 1 24 20 1
13 N Rackers     21 2
14 J Kasay   4 27 5
15 J Carney 3 16 15 18
16 J Wilkins 22 1 24 6
17 S Janikowski 6 21 13 20
18 J Nedney 12     18
19 R Lindell 15 28 8 11
20 P Dawson 19   16 16
21 J Scobee     22 12
22 O Mare 11 20 30 11
23 P Edinger 21 14 29 13
24 J Hanson 18 22 17 21

The table to the right shows the year end ranking for each of the listed players and is sorted in a manner to suggest the most reliable "repeaters" in fantasy drafts over the last five years. While Akers has not been a #1 before and he's only once been better than 4th in a given year, he was the most reliable - until last year. Same for Longwell. Vanderjagt and Wilkins have been gold in the past but both have been every other year players.

Notable too is that the #1 kicker for the last four years has not repeated with a performance better than 16th the next year.

Kicker Repeatability
12% - 0%

Considering the similar scoring for all kickers, only the Top 6 really can be said to be difference makers. Over the last five years, there is usually only one player that repeats the next year in the Top 6 and yet that tier is almost entirely unrelaible. There is just no measurable way to predict kickers based heavily on past performance. Akers, Longwell, Elam, Vanderjagt, Stover and Vinatieri are the only "repeaters" worthy of relying on and as shown above - that repeat may mean that they are just worth having as a starting kicker, not as a true difference maker. Playing into the numbers as well are many kickers that turn in one or two monster games that pushes them well above the pack and yet the next year doesn't have those one or two games and makes them look like they dropped severely. The reality is that they are pretty much the same as always other than the one or two games.