FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability - Tight End
David Dorey
August 15, 2006
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Kickers

Repeatability, if it exists at all, is critical for tight ends because simply enough there are never more than a dozen of them with any real fantasy significance. Look at the numbers from every season - it is only the top six that really matter and have any appreciable "per game" difference from the rest.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. For tight ends, that entails 1/10 yardage points and six point touchdowns.

	2001	Pts	2002	Pts	2003	Pts	2004	Pts	2005	Pts
1	T Gonzalez	124	T Heap	120	T Gonzalez	144	A Gates	169	A Gates	170
2	M Pollard	117	T Gonzalez	111	S Sharpe	119	T Gonzalez	161	J Shockey	131
3	S Sharpe	86	J Shockey	94	T Heap	90	J Witten	128	T Heap	126
4	D Clark	86	S Sharpe	82	B Williams	68	A Crumpler	106	C Cooley	118
5	F Wycheck	83	B Franks	82	M Pollard	67	R McMichael	97	A Crumpler	117
6	B Chamberlain	79	M Pollard	77	A Crumpler	67	J Shockey	97	J Witten	110

7	B Franks	79	B Miller	73	I Mili	66	J Wiggins	87	T Gonzalez	102
8	D Sloan	78	A Crumpler	68	R McMichael	64	E Johnson	86	R McMichael	88
9	W Walls	70	R McMichael	67	F Jones	64	D Graham	74	L J Smith	85
10	E Conwell	70	K Brady	65	J Shockey	62	B Franks	70	J Stevens	85
11	C Lewis	70	C Fauria	62	D Graham	59	D Clark	66	H Miller	81
12	J Riemersma	69	E Conwell	59	J Kleinsasser	58	L J Smith	64	B Troupe	75

13	F Jones	58	I Mili	58	A Becht	58	C Cooley	63	D Clark	72
14	A Becht	56	C Lewis	56	E Kinney	50	J Putzier	63	M Pollard	68
15	D Carswell	52	S Alexander	52	D Clark	48	M Pollard	61	B Watson	66
16	E Johnson	51	A Becht	50	M Ricks	48	S Heiden	56	E Kinney	65
17	D Moore	47	D Jolley	48	B Miller	47	K Dilger	48	J Wiggins	61
18	A Crumpler	45	M Ricks	43	B Franks	47	J Stevens	48	S Heiden	56
19	K Brady	42	W Walls	42	A Gates	46	M Campbell	47	C Anderson	48
20	K Dilger	41	J Kleinsasser	42	J Weaver	41	F Jones	47	J Putzier	47
21	R Williams	41	F Wycheck	41	M Schobel	40	T Heap	45	A Smith	47
22	C Cleeland	35	K Dilger	39	E Conwell	37	K Mangum	45	Z Hilton	44
23	E Williams	34	J Stevens	38	D Clark	36	A Shea	43	D Lee	41
24	J Wiggins	33	F Jones	36	J Witten	35	B Williams	42	D Graham	41
The Following season:			Remained Top 6		Became 7-12		Became 13-24		Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became	Avg.	2001	2002	2003	2004
Top 6	3	3	4	2	4
7 to 12	1	0	1	0	2
13 - 24	1	1	1	2	0
Duds	1	2	0	2	0
7 to 12 became	Avg.	2001	2002	2003	2004
Top 6	1	1	1	2	0
7 to 12	1	0	1	1	1
13 - 24	2	2	2	1	3
Duds	2	3	2	2	2
Top 6 was	Avg.	2002	2003	2004	2005
Top 6	3	3	3	2	4
7 to 12	1	1	1	2	0
13 - 24	1	0	0	2	2
24+	1	2	2	0	0

Each season has seen typically two or three tight ends rule the position with a handful more only moderately important. The rest are meaningless in fantasy terms. Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the two top dogs for several years and since Sharpe retired, a replacement was needed. Enter Antonio Gates who outscored Sharpe's career best season. Gates who scored more touchdowns than anyone in the position had ever. Last year was different too in that there were other tight ends of note - Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler, Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey chimed in and gave us the highest scoring Top 6 in the history of the NFL.

2005 merely cements what we have all come to know - those top tight ends remain top guys the next year. Four remained top 6 and the other two ended up ranked 7th and 8th. That means of the top six tight ends, all ended up at least top eight the next year - that is astounding consistency.

Looking backwards, it is still only the top 6 that contributes heavily to the next season simply because they are already the few tight ends that have dominant receiving roles for their team. There is just not a lot of variation that happens in this position. A sleeper tight end? Just never happens anymore.

	Repeat Reliability	2002	2003	2004	2005
1	Gates, A		19	1	1
2	Gonzalez, T	2	1	2	7
3	Shockey, J	3	10	6	2
4	Crumpler, A	8	6	4	5
5	McMichael, R	9	8	5	8
6	Heap, T	1	3	23	3
7	Cooley, C			13	4
8	Pollard, M	6	5	15	14
9	Witten, J		24	3	6
10	Graham, D	42	11	9	24
11	Clark, D	75	23	11	13
12	Franks, B	5	18	10	33
13	Smith, LJ		28	14	9
14	Kinney, E	47	14	31	16
15	Troupe, B			30	12
16	Wiggins, J	58	59	8	17
17	Stevens, J	23	72	19	10
18	Putzier, J		75	12	20