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Repeatability - Tight End
David Dorey
August 15, 2006
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Kickers

Repeatability, if it exists at all, is critical for tight ends because simply enough there are never more than a dozen of them with any real fantasy significance. Look at the numbers from every season - it is only the top six that really matter and have any appreciable "per game" difference from the rest.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. For tight ends, that entails 1/10 yardage points and six point touchdowns.

  2001 Pts 2002 Pts 2003 Pts 2004 Pts 2005 Pts
1 T Gonzalez 124 T Heap 120 T Gonzalez 144 A Gates 169 A Gates 170
2 M Pollard 117 T Gonzalez 111 S Sharpe 119 T Gonzalez 161 J Shockey 131
3 S Sharpe 86 J Shockey 94 T Heap 90 J Witten 128 T Heap 126
4 D Clark 86 S Sharpe 82 B Williams 68 A Crumpler 106 C Cooley 118
5 F Wycheck 83 B Franks 82 M Pollard 67 R McMichael 97 A Crumpler 117
6 B Chamberlain 79 M Pollard 77 A Crumpler 67 J Shockey 97 J Witten 110
 
7 B Franks 79 B Miller 73 I Mili 66 J Wiggins 87 T Gonzalez 102
8 D Sloan 78 A Crumpler 68 R McMichael 64 E Johnson 86 R McMichael 88
9 W Walls 70 R McMichael 67 F Jones 64 D Graham 74 L J Smith 85
10 E Conwell 70 K Brady 65 J Shockey 62 B Franks 70 J Stevens 85
11 C Lewis 70 C Fauria 62 D Graham 59 D Clark 66 H Miller 81
12 J Riemersma 69 E Conwell 59 J Kleinsasser 58 L J Smith 64 B Troupe 75
 
13 F Jones 58 I Mili 58 A Becht 58 C Cooley 63 D Clark 72
14 A Becht 56 C Lewis 56 E Kinney 50 J Putzier 63 M Pollard 68
15 D Carswell 52 S Alexander 52 D Clark 48 M Pollard 61 B Watson 66
16 E Johnson 51 A Becht 50 M Ricks 48 S Heiden 56 E Kinney 65
17 D Moore 47 D Jolley 48 B Miller 47 K Dilger 48 J Wiggins 61
18 A Crumpler 45 M Ricks 43 B Franks 47 J Stevens 48 S Heiden 56
19 K Brady 42 W Walls 42 A Gates 46 M Campbell 47 C Anderson 48
20 K Dilger 41 J Kleinsasser 42 J Weaver 41 F Jones 47 J Putzier 47
21 R Williams 41 F Wycheck 41 M Schobel 40 T Heap 45 A Smith 47
22 C Cleeland 35 K Dilger 39 E Conwell 37 K Mangum 45 Z Hilton 44
23 E Williams 34 J Stevens 38 D Clark 36 A Shea 43 D Lee 41
24 J Wiggins 33 F Jones 36 J Witten 35 B Williams 42 D Graham 41
The Following season: Remained Top 6 Became 7-12 Became 13-24 Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became Avg. 2001 2002 2003 2004
Top 6 3 3 4 2 4
7 to 12 1 0 1 0 2
13 - 24 1 1 1 2 0
Duds 1 2 0 2 0
7 to 12 became Avg. 2001 2002 2003 2004
Top 6 1 1 1 2 0
7 to 12 1 0 1 1 1
13 - 24 2 2 2 1 3
Duds 2 3 2 2 2
Top 6 was Avg. 2002 2003 2004 2005
Top 6 3 3 3 2 4
7 to 12 1 1 1 2 0
13 - 24 1 0 0 2 2
24+ 1 2 2 0 0

Each season has seen typically two or three tight ends rule the position with a handful more only moderately important. The rest are meaningless in fantasy terms. Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the two top dogs for several years and since Sharpe retired, a replacement was needed. Enter Antonio Gates who outscored Sharpe's career best season. Gates who scored more touchdowns than anyone in the position had ever. Last year was different too in that there were other tight ends of note - Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler, Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey chimed in and gave us the highest scoring Top 6 in the history of the NFL.

2005 merely cements what we have all come to know - those top tight ends remain top guys the next year. Four remained top 6 and the other two ended up ranked 7th and 8th. That means of the top six tight ends, all ended up at least top eight the next year - that is astounding consistency.

Looking backwards, it is still only the top 6 that contributes heavily to the next season simply because they are already the few tight ends that have dominant receiving roles for their team. There is just not a lot of variation that happens in this position. A sleeper tight end? Just never happens anymore.

  Repeat Reliability 2002 2003 2004 2005
1 Gates, A   19 1 1
2 Gonzalez, T 2 1 2 7
3 Shockey, J 3 10 6 2
4 Crumpler, A 8 6 4 5
5 McMichael, R 9 8 5 8
6 Heap, T 1 3 23 3
7 Cooley, C       13 4
8 Pollard, M 6 5 15 14
9 Witten, J   24 3 6
10 Graham, D 42 11 9 24
11 Clark, D 75 23 11 13
12 Franks, B 5 18 10 33
13 Smith, LJ   28 14 9
14 Kinney, E 47 14 31 16
15 Troupe, B     30 12
16 Wiggins, J 58 59 8 17
17 Stevens, J 23 72 19 10
18 Putzier, J   75 12 20