FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

It's summer! Six months down, two to go. The (over) hype of the NFL draft has been over for a while now and the truly hardcore fantasy football fan has already started getting ready for 2006. Have you wondered how valuable Reggie Bush really is? How about the Indy backfield of Addai and Rhodes, how much do they cost? And the Big Three of Larry, Shaun, and LaDainian? How is the market pricing them compared to the rest of the field?

Hundreds of questions abound and we're here to provide quantifiable answers. We're going to take an early look at the market – the average auction values of three expert auctions recently held at FantasyAuctioneer.com. The results will be published in a number of fantasy football magazines this summer. (Special thanks to The Huddle, SportsBlurb, and Fantasy Index for letting us host their auctions. Make sure you check out their magazines to see the individual experts' perspectives on their specific auction.)

While three auctions are admittedly a small sample size, all the participants were fantasy sports writers who follow the NFL 12 months out of the year. These guys know what they're doing, so three auctions should be sufficient, especially this early in the game. As the season draws closer and more auctions are run on our site, we will publish weekly average value updates on all our auctions to give you a look at the current market.

First, the rules. All three expert auctions had the following rules:

• 12 teams, $200 salary cap
• Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
• 10 yards rush/rec = 20 yards pass = 1 point
• Passing TD = 4 points
• Rush/Rec TD = 6 points
• Int thrown = -1 point
• Standard defensive and Kicker scoring

Take into account there are 20-22 rosters spots per team, which means that if you normally have 16 roster spots, then there could be as many as 72 less roster spots in your league. This will mean that the prices you see in this article should probably go up a dollar or two.

The Big Picture:

One of the things we like to do is see how the AAVs break down in sets of 12. It's almost like comparing ADPs with AAVs:

a. Round 1 (1-12): $75-$38
b. Round 2 (13-24): $38-$27
c. Round 3 (25-36): $26-$21
d. Round 4 (37-48): $21-$17
e. Round 5 (49-60): $17-$12
f. Round 6 (61-72): $12-$10
g. Round 7 (73-84): $10-$8
h. Round 8 (85-96): $8-$7
i. Round 9 (97-108): $7-$5
j. Round 10 (109-120): $5-$4
k. Round 11 (121-132): $4-$3
l. Round 12 (133-144): $3-$3
m. Round 13 (145-156): $3-$2
n. Round 14-16+ (157-192+): $2-$1

The Top 12 ($38-$75):

Not surprisingly, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and LaDainian Tomlinson are far and away ranked higher than anyone else, with LJ at the top ($70-$75).

The second tier of running backs (Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, and Edgerrin James) weigh in at $48 to $52.

The third tier of running backs include Steven Jackson, LaMont Jordan, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Rudi Johnson with prices ranging from $41 to $45.

Steve Smith caps off the top 12 as the #1 WR on the board.

One of the things that really jump out is how expensive the top tier guys are. While we've always been big proponents of having a lot of depth, this makes us wonder even more if the top guys are worth the premium. Consider the following RB scenarios:

Team One spends $87 on its top 2 RBs:
RB1: Larry Johnson ($75)
RB2: Dominic Rhodes ($12)

Team Two spends $87 on its top 2 RBs:
RB1: Steven Jackson ($45)
RB2: Cadillac Williams ($42)

Team Three spends $97 on its top 2 RBs:
RB1: LaDainian Tomlinson ($70)
RB2: Brian Westbrook ($27)

Team Four spends $95 on its top 2 RBs:
RB1: Clinton Portis ($52)
RB2: LaMont Jordan ($43)

Who do you think comes out better? It obviously depends on how much you like the individual players mentioned, but the addition of AAVs allows for a quantifiable comparison. For those in snake draft leagues that allow trading draft picks, this type of exercise can help you figure out if a certain trade is worth it.

POSITIONAL ANALYSIS:

Quarterbacks:

At $38, Peyton Manning is (not surprisingly) in a tier by himself. While a bit high for our tastes, owners may be rewarded if he returns to levels even close to 2004.

Among the second tier of QBs we find Eli Manning at $25 a bit of a reach given his second half swoon and tough 2006 schedule. His high placement, however, illustrates how his value can be affected by two people in your league who really believe in him. Considering how well he did overall in his first full year starting and his pedigree, there is a definite segment of fantasy GMs out there who believe he has top QB potential. In an auction, it only takes two of those guys to get into a bidding war to drive Eli's price up.

Brady, Palmer, and Hasselbeck are solid values at $17-$20. Palmer's knee is the wildcard here but he may outperform either of the Manning Brothers. We think McNabb at $17 is a little high, given the lack of WRs and his decreasing rushing production. We like Bulger to be the bargain of this group at $15. If healthy, he should easily reach 26-28 TDs.

The third tier is the value tier and offers many solid options for relative bargains from $8 to $12. Despite his many detractors, Michael Vick leads the tier at $12. His relatively low price will allow for additional funds to be spent elsewhere to compensate for the inevitable off-weeks he will suffer. Others offering good value are Drew Bledsoe, Jake Delhomme, & Kurt Warner. Injuries and/or new teams make Ben Roethlisberger, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, and Drew Brees speculative buys. Perhaps my favorite in this tier is Trent Green at $8. He quietly went over 4000 yards and started every game for the third year in a row. (He actually hasn't missed a game since he was a Ram.) Unfortunately, Favre's best days are behind him and he might be a little overvalued at $8. We think Jake Plummer, who threw for over 4000 yards and 27 TDs two years ago and finished 7th last year, is a little underrated at $7.

Most of the remaining QBs qualify as backups. There are, however, a few that are undervalued and worth noting. Jon Kitna, David Carr, Billy Volek, Matt Leinert, and Steve McNair all offer value at $2-$5.

Wide Receivers:

While not surprising that Steve Smith is the top WR, it is interesting that he was valued the same as Peyton Manning at $38. Overall we think the top tier of WRs is slightly undervalued with Terrell Owens, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chad Johnson going for $32-$36.

The second tier of WRs also offers significant value, perhaps the greatest being Chris Chambers at $23. He's priced at a significant discount to Chad Johnson ($32), but capable of similar stats (especially if Culpepper regains his old form). Others in this tier include Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, the dynamic duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and Hines Ward from $23-$29.

Moving to the third tier we move to the weaker #1 WRs and strong #2 WRs. Many in this group have question marks but offer significant upside for their value. Top among them are Roy Williams at $18 (will Martz make a big difference in year one?), Javon Walker at $17 (how is that knee?), and Koren Robinson at $12 (can he stay sober?). Somewhat safer plays are Darrell Jackson at $20, Plaxico Burress at $18, and Donald Driver at $12.

With WRs, it seems the lower you go, the greater the value and we see that in tiers 4 and 5. Among the tier 4 guys who stand out are veterans Derrick Mason and Rod Smith at $8, each of whom should benefit from recent additions (McNair and Walker respectively). Others that could greatly outperform their values are Michael Clayton at $8, Ernest Wilford at $5, and Kevin Curtis at $5.

The 5th tier offers a number of players likely drafted as #4 or #5 WRs but still has some upside. Isaac Bruce at $4, Eric Moulds at $3, and Mark Clayton at $3 lead the veterans. Among rookies, Chad Jackson and Santonio Holmes are worth a flyer for $1.

The Running Backs:

Get ready to spend if you want one of the Big 3 this year, it will likely cost you at least 35% of your salary cap. Larry Johnson is at the top followed closely by Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only tier 1 backs.

Tier 2A consists of three backs that are worthy #1 backs on fantasy teams: Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, and Edgerrin James. Tier 2B consists of the following five backs: Steven Jackson, LaMont Jordan, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Rudi Johnson. Overall these backs are fairly valued but we'd be more inclined to focus on Tier 2B, who should produce quality stats but are generally available at a slight discount to their cohorts.

Tier 3 consists of the last of the #1 backs and high end #2s. Domanick Davis and Willis McGahee lead the group at $34 followed by Reggie Bush at $28. We feel both McGahee and Bush are a bit over-valued, but Davis can be a steal if he can shake off his injuries and take advantage of new HC Gary Kubiak's backfield expertise. Julius Jones at $26 could also provide great value for owners if he can start all 16 games as could Tatum Bell at $24 if he earns the starting job. Just remember to handcuff those last two with Marion Barber and Ron Dayne respectively.

We really like the value in the 4th tier. Tightly knit between $19-$22 are backs such as Warrick Dunn, Reuben Droughns, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, and Chester Taylor all provide considerable value.

The 5th tier is primarily the somewhat lesser committee members of the league's RBBCs: Deuce McAllister at $16, Joseph Addai at $15 and Dominic Rhodes $12, Ron Dayne at $14, Ahman Green at $11, DeAngelo Williams at $11, Cedric Benson at $10, and Frank Gore at $12. Although RBBC is never good for fantasy owners, taking one of these backs as a number 3 RB or flex position makes fiscal sense. RBBCs are detailed further below.

After the above 34 backs are gone, most are sleepers, flyers, or insurance. Given the low prices, you can take a few chances without crippling your cap. Among these lower-priced backs take a close look at the following based on projected cost. Veterans Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor and rookies Laurence Maroney and LenDale White at $8. Brandon Jacobs and Duce Staley at $4, Cedric Houston and Mike Anderson at $3, and Ryan Moats at $2 all offer decent value for #4 or #5 backs.

RBBC Spotlight:

More than any other time in the last several years, there are a number of running-back-by-committees in the NFL. While some will avoid RBBCs like the plague, others will try to corner the market on a team's backfield, hoping one of the backs will step up to win the feature back job either through performance or injury. Here are all of them and what they would cost you:

a. Saints: Bush ($28) + McAllister ($16) = $44
b. Broncos: Bell ($24) + Dayne ($14) = $38
c. Cowboys: J. Jones ($26) + M. Barber ($6) = $32
d. Bears: T. Jones ($22) + Benson ($10) = $32
e. Steelers: Parker ($26) + Staley ($4) = $30
f. Panthers: Foster ($19) + D. Williams ($11) = $30
g. Patriots: Dillon ($21) + Maroney ($8) = $29
h. Colts: Addai ($15) + Rhodes ($12) = $27
i. Falcons: Dunn ($19) + Duckett ($4) = $23
j. 49ers: Gore ($12) + Barlow ($2) = $14

Notice that all of them, except for the first and last (Saints and 49ers), are all legitimate play-off contenders. Backs on good teams are usually the guys you want, so we would recommend you buy the set you like as your #3 and #4 backs. You could even buy one of the RBBCs that seems to have a clearer starter (e.g. Cowboys, Steelers, maybe Panthers) as your #2 and #3 and make up for it at the other positions, preferably WR.

Tight Ends:

Based on the expert auctions, it will pay to be patient with TEs. Antonio Gates at $23, Tony Gonzalez at $17, and Jeremy Shockey at $15 lead the group, but are they really that much more valuable than Jason Witten at $7, Chris Cooley and LJ Smith at $5, or Heath Miller and Randy McMichael at $4? While value is in the eye of the buyer, we'd rather have McMichael and the extra dollars to put towards a higher tier RB. Vernon Davis is a bit of a surprise at $8.

Kickers:

Always tough to predict, we recommend allotting only a couple of dollars for a kicker. If you are going to open the wallet to the tune of $3 or $4, proven veterans such as Mike Vanderjagt, Adam Vinatieri (now in a dome), and Jay Feely may work out. Otherwise, the likes of Jeff Wilkins, David Akers, Lawrence Tynes, and others are decent options for a buck or two.

Team Defense/Special Teams:

As with Kickers, we suggest not paying much for defenses due to year-to-year volatility. We probably won't pay $7 for the Bears; we'll consider the Colts, Giants, Steelers, Falcons, Eagles for $3; but we probably like the Seahawks, Buccaneers, Ravens, or Dolphins for $2 the best. As a $1 flyer we'd also consider the Packers.

While no two auctions are the same, this should provide a good barometer of how players will be valued come draft day. We will continue to publish our Average Auction Values as the season draws closer. Future AAVs will have a much larger sample size and be more up-to-date.

Remember that value is the key. Be patient, let others overspend, and jump on the bargains when they present themselves. Make sure you check out our other auction draft articles to help you prepare for the big day. Happy auctioning!

George del Prado and Andrew Woodring are syndicated fantasy sports writers for FantasyAuctioneer.com, home of the first and only real-time auction-draft software on the Internet. In developing and maintaining the website, they are convinced they have participated in more fantasy auctions than anyone on the planet and hope you can learn from their experience.