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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
September 20, 2006
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GB at DET WAS at HOU STL at ARZ   updated

Prediction: GB 13, DET 20

The 0-2 Packers and 0-2 Lions face off for the rights to the NFC North cellar and these tilts usually end up with the home team. The Packers lost 3-17 in Detroit in the season opener last year and then won 16-13 at home in week 14.

Green Bay Packers (0-2)
1 0-26 CHI 10 --- @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 --- NE
3 --- @DET 12 --- @SEA
4 --- @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 --- STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 --- @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 --- ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 --- @BUF - MON THU
GBP at DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 200,1
RB Vernand Morency 20 20 0
RB Ahman Green 60 10 0
TE Franks/Martin 0 30,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 60 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 30 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 40 0
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Packers came off a shutout against the Bears and had a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the visiting Saints remembered the Packers have a horrible pass defense and rang up 34 points in the final three quarters. The team is yet another fighting to stay motivated in the face of a challenging season and even Favre no longer sounds that optimistic. Still, after getting shut out, posting 27 points feels pretty good.

Quarterback: After only managing to throw for 170 yards and two interceptions against the Bears, Brett Favre finally came to life last week when he posted 340 yards and three scores in the losing effort. The surprising ground game of week one was evidently a temporary event and Favre is looking at a long line of games where he's going to be throwing a lot. Maybe not well or effectively, but the volume will definitely be called for.

Favre threw for 201 and 170 yards against the Lions in 2005 without any touchdowns scored.

Running Backs: After Ahman "Pumpkin" Green rang up 110 yards on just 20 carries against the Bears, he only managed 42 last week on 16 carries but added six catches for 48 yards. Those receptions may likely decrease starting this week with the addition of Vernand Morency and William Henderson could play this week as well.

Wide Receivers: With 340 passing yards to distribute, it would be assumed that the wideouts would share in the bounty and while Greg Jennings had 67 yards and his first NFL score, the bulk of all action went to Donald Driver who had eight catches for 153 yards. Robert Ferguson scored but that came on his only catch of the game. This unit remains mostly just Driver with some help from Jennings who needs to develop quickly into a decent complement to Driver who is second in the league in yardage (249) and third in receptions (15). Favre needs more than one main guy.

Tight Ends: The tight ends were more involved last week when they combined for 62 yards but Bubba Franks only had three catches for 18 yards while David Martin turned six catches into 44 yards. The previous week it was only Donald Lee with a catch.

Match Against the Defense: The Lions may be short a couple of linebackers this week which would help Ahman Green but the Packers have never fared well in Detroit. While Grossman threw for four scores in Chicago last week, Hasselbeck in Detroit was held without a touchdown. The Lions have not surrendered a rushing score yet so don't expect Green to break any new ground here.

Favre struggled in Detroit last year and that was against a team that was tearing apart from the inside. Expect the home Lions to play a better game this week and to hold Favre to just one passing score that should end up with a tight end as easily as a wideout. It could go anywhere. Jennings draws Dre Bly this week and that should keep him quiet.


Detroit Lions (0-2)
1 6-9 SEA 10 --- SF
2 7-34 @CHI 11 --- @ARZ
3 --- GB 12 --- MIA
4 --- @STL 13 --- @NE
5 --- @MIN 14 --- MIN
6 --- BUF 15 --- @GB
7 --- @NYJ 16 --- CHI
8 Open Bye 17 --- @DAL
9 --- ATL - - THU
DET vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jon Kitna 0 0 250,2
RB Kevin Jones 40 50 0
TE Marcus Pollard 0 10 0
WR Roy Williams 0 80,1 0
WR Mike Furrey 0 60,1 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 40 0
PK Jason Hanson 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Lions defense played very well in the opener but in Chicago they fell apart when they committed to the run and allowed Grossman to dissect them with the pass. Throw in far too many penalties and three turnovers and the whooping was on. Back at home this week, the Lions have their best shot at the win column that they will likely see for the first nine weeks of the season.

Quarterback: Jon Kitna only had 230 passing yards last week which mirrored his first game and he still has yet to throw for a score in the new Mike Martz-led offense. He rushed in a score as the only Detroit touchdown on the year during his only rushing attempt of the year. Kitna was plagued by a few dropped passes and untimely penalty calls though and he is showing some progress. He completed 23 of 30 passes against the Bears for a healthy 76% completion rate though he is averaging only ten yards per completion.

Running Backs: Kevin Jones second chance at an NFL career looks surprisingly similar to last year - only 79 rushing yards on 26 carries over two games played. Where he has improved his fantasy stock is with receptions and had 11 catches for 83 yards to double his value. Unlike with Steve Mariucci, the Lions are now using Jones almost exclusively for tailback runs and catches, but the rushing game just has not been there yet.

Wide Receivers: The passing game is supposed to take off with Martz there but so far the results are less than "Ram quality". Roy Williams and Mike Furrey are sharing almost equal duty with similar results and neither has exceeded 71 yards yet. Beyond those two, only Corey Bradford has a couple of catches and those were in the first game. That should change this week against easily the worst secondary they have yet faced.

Tight Ends: The new offense has replicated the Rams scheme in one way - the tight end no longer contributes more than two meaningless catches per game.

Match Against the Defense: For all the defensive woes of the Packers, stopping the rush has not been one of them. No runner has scored and none has topped more than 63 yards that took Thomas Jones 21 carries to reach. Look for yet another mediocre effort from Jones though his role as a receiver should prop up his fantasy stock this week.

Kitna has been close to scoring and close to completing some impressive passes and this should be the one week where it all works. The Packers have given up almost 300 yards per game to the combo of Grossman and Brees so Kitna should finally see some results. Expect two scores here that will favor both wideouts.