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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
September 27, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
MIA at HOU SF at KC NE at CIN   updated

Prediction: MIA 17, HOU 13

The Dolphins were happy to get their first win but that was about the only joy that came from the match-up that saw the Fins at home struggle against the Titans. The Texans are at home for the third time this season and yet have not lost by less than 14 points in any game. The Miami offense may be bumbling, but their defense is still close to average. That's miles beyond the Texans right now.

Miami Dolphins (1-2)
1 17-28 @PIT 10 --- KC
2 6-16 BUF 11 --- MIN
3 13-10 TEN 12 --- @DET
4 --- @HOU 13 --- JAX
5 --- @NE 14 --- NE
6 --- @NYJ 15 --- @BUF
7 --- GB 16 --- NYJ
8 Open Bye 17 --- @IND
9 --- @CHI - MON THU
MIA at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Daunte Culpepper 10 0 230,1
RB Ronnie Brown 110.1 20 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 30 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 70,1 0
WR Marty Booker 0 40 0
WR Wes Welker 0 50 0
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Any win is good but when it happens with only one touchdown scored against a team that had surrendered 63 points in the two previous games, it's not that big of an accomplishment. The rushing game improved slightly thanks mostly to an increase in volume not effectiveness and thankfully the defense held Tennessee to only ten points in the game.

Quarterback: On the plus side, Daunte Culpepper had no turnovers last week for the first time as a Fin. Then again, he only had 168 yards and no passing scores either. On the season, he has only one touchdown pass and has returned Chris Chambers to being just another possession receiver only this time it doesn't include scoring (other than the lone touchdown). Culpepper has taken to running the ball lately and scored via the run last week. But there's hardly much similarity between this Culpepper and the one we saw in Minneapolis before last year.

Running Backs: Ronnie Brown comes off his best rushing effort of the year with 90 yards on 26 carries against the Titans but his inclusion in the passing game went from six catches for 52 yards in week two down to just two catches for ten yards last week. Brown still only averaged 3.5 yards per carry and now Culpepper takes the rushing score from him.

Wide Receivers: So far the leading receiver for the Dolphins is Wes Welker with 14 catches for 167 yards over three games. He's the slot receiver. Marty Booker only has eight catches for 133 yards and Chris Chambers has 13 receptions for 153 yards and the lone passing score. So far the passing game has been only worth up to 50 or 60 yards per player at best.

While no one had much faith in Welker or Booker, Chambers big season is looking more and more like just a blip in his career unless Culpepper makes a quick turn around.

Tight Ends: Randy McMichael is still used, but only for a couple of completions per game. He's lost almost all his fantasy value by now.

Match Against the Defense: We said it last week and it did not happen but once again, Ronnie Brown has an excellent chance for a big game here with a chance for at least one score - if Culpepper doesn't hawk it again. The Texans have already given up five rushing scores this season and the Redskins rang up 245 rushing yards last week. If Brown cannot top the century mark here, he may never this year. It just doesn't get much better than this.

Culpepper goes against a secondary that has been ravaged by quarterbacks - even Brunell - so Culpepper too has his second golden opportunity. After last week, it's safe to assume that the Fins concentrate on rushing mostly so Culpepper won't post the gaudy numbers that the match-up suggests is possible. But he should ring up at least one passing score here. This has to be a scoring game for Chambers.

Houston Texans (0-3)
1 10-24 PHI 10 --- @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 --- BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 --- @NYJ
4 --- MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 --- @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 --- JAX 16 --- IND
8 --- @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 --- @NYG - - -
HOU vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 210,1
RB Ron Dayne 60 10 0
RB Samkon Gado 10 10 0
TE Daniels/Bruener 0 30,1 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 80 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 10 0
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: Times are tough in Houston again and this time the team cannot lose by less than two touchdowns. The season started on a downer playing the Eagles and Colts, but even the Redskins had their way with the Texans. The Fins are the worst team yet that they face, but that doesn't mean they are weak enough to log a Houston win. This is their best chance to be sure but nothing yet says that they can take advantage of it.

Quarterback: While the defense has gone into hiding, the offense is looking better at least for the passing game. David Carr has three straight games of around 210 yards and two scores and he has six touchdowns on the year. He is not running as he did in seasons past but he also only has one interception so far.

Running Backs: The bottle stopped spinning when it faced Ron Dayne last week and that reaped 58 yards on 14 carries, most of which should not have happened because the Texans were already hopelessly behind on the scoreboard. Samkon Gado had just one run for no gain and Wali Lundy now stays on the sideline. It's as if HC Gary Kubiak refuses to believe that he has no rushing game and is expecting something Denver-esque to happen. It's not.

So far the offense has scored no rushing touchdowns and has that 58 yards as a season high for the team.

Wide Receivers: While the passing game has improved, that has come almost entirely to the benefit of Andre Johnson who comes off an 11 catch game for 152 yards over the Skins - his second 100+ effort of the year. No other wideout here has done anything other than Eric Moulds and his ever declining production that is now down to just 27 yards last week.

Tight Ends: Neither Owen Daniels or Mark Bruener has anything much in yardage, but both are tied for the team lead with two touchdowns on the season that almost all came on their only catch in that game. Jeb Putzier has similarly low numbers only he never scores.

Match Against the Defense: The Dolphins have not allowed a rushing score yet which matches well with the Texans who have not scored one either. Look for moderate numbers from Dayne here if only from volume of carries.

Carr goes against a secondary that has allowed at least one score in every game but all he uses is just one wideout - Johnson. There should be one score here but it likely favors another quick flip to one of three tight ends. Travis Daniels has kept the split ends like Johnson quiet so far so Moulds has a better spot this week.