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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
October 18, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
JAX at HOU SD at KC WAS at IND   *updated

Prediction: GB 20, MIA 24

Here's one of those games that someone has to win hard as it is to imagine. The Packers only win this year came on the road and they are coming off a bye week while the Dolphins offense has yet to score more than 17 points in any game. But the Packers have never allowed less than 23 points. Both teams are desperate for a win and this could go either way.

Update: Marty Booker is listed as questionable due to his pectoral strain but has returned to practice and is now expected to play. I am adding him back into the projections but still leaving Derek Hagan there as well since Booker still may not be 100%. Wes Welker was held out of practice on Wednesday with a calf strain but returned on Thursday and is expected to play as well.

Green Bay Packers (1-4)
1 0-26 CHI 10 --- @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 --- NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 --- @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 --- @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 --- ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 --- @BUF - MON THU
GBP at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,2
RB Vernand Morency 40 10 0
RB Ahman Green 40 20 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 30 0
WR Donald Driver 0 70,1 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 20 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 80,1 0
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Packers come off their bye week after nearly beating the Rams in week five. The offense has posted some nice points along the way but on the road this week to Miami is really out of their element. The rushing game will likely get Ahman Green back this week but this game all depends on which colored jersey catches those Favre passes.

Quarterback: Brett Favre's season has been as inconsistent as the Packers entire team. He has thrown for three scores in two different games (NO, DET) but only had one score in the other three match-ups. Most encouraging here is that two of the last three games have been without any interceptions.

Running Backs: This week could be the return of Ahman Green but having over 20 touches in his three starts seemed to take a toll on him and the Packers are not going to overwork him and risk further injury. Pending him later being called out, I am assuming that he does play but will be mixed in with Vernand Morency and Noah Herron.

Morency spawned optimism when he ran for 99 yards against the Eagles but after fumbling twice against the Rams, Herron got the nod and gained 106 yards with the only rushing touchdowns for the Packers this year. This backfield could be hard to nail down for a while and likely will go into a committee with Green merely getting the most.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver came into the year as clearly the primary wideout and started with big games the first two weeks but the opposing defenses have been able to slow him down. Now Favre is relying more on Greg Jennings who has scored in three of the last four games and has two 100 yards games already. Robert Ferguson will be out for several more weeks so Jennings will cement his role. Koren Robinson was starting to figure in but now he is gone with a suspension which strips the Packers of wideouts with any game experience this year. This means that likely the rookie Ruvell Martin will have to move up the depth chart and get some playing time.

Tight Ends: The lack of wideouts still has not translated into any action for the tight ends here. Bubba Franks usually has a couple of catches per week but no tight end has scored for the Packers this year.

Match Against the Defense: Bad news for the Packers run game - The Dolphins rank top 5 against running backs and have not allowed a tailback to rush in a score this year. Expect moderate numbers here in total from some mixture of Green, Morency and Herron as yet undefined with no reasonable chance of a score.

Favre will have to make the difference and he faces a secondary that has given up at least one score every week with Brady and Pennington turning in two scores in the most recent games. Expect at least one score here that favors Driver and around 250 yards because the run is not going to work. There will likely be a late second score that would have to come via the pass.

Miami Dolphins (1-5)
1 17-28 @PIT 10 --- KC
2 6-16 BUF 11 --- MIN
3 13-10 TEN 12 --- @DET
4 15-17 @HOU 13 --- JAX
5 10-20 @NE 14 --- NE
6 17-20 @NYJ 15 --- @BUF
7 --- GB 16 --- NYJ
8 Open Bye 17 --- @IND
9 --- @CHI - MON THU
MIA vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington 0 0 260,2
RB Ronnie Brown 70,1 0 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 60 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 70,1 0
WR Marty Booker 0 40 0
WR Derek Hagan 0 30,1 0
WR Wes Welker 0 60 0
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins extend their losing streak to three games but had a good chance against the Titans and Jets. They could have been 3-2 now for the want of just a couple of plays per game. Harrington hasn't been enough to change the team's fortunes but at least the rushing game has recently shown life. The Dolphins finally return home after a streak of three road games and no one wants to head into the week eight bye at 1-6. That would prove nearly catastrophic with Chicago waiting on the other side.

Quarterback: In two games as the starter, Joey Harrington has turned in games of 232 and 266 yards but only thrown one touchdown and had two interceptions in each game. He's been slightly more effective than Culpepper and only needs to eliminate those turnovers to get a win. Going against the soft Packer defense this week should finally make him look good.

Running Backs: Ronnie Brown was unable to gain yardage against the Patriots in week five when Harrington took over, but at least he scored one touchdown. Last week in New York against the Jets, Brown ran for 127 yards and one score for his best game of the year - by a large margin. Now finally back at home, Brown will look to build upon his improving numbers.

Wide Receivers: With Marty Booker out due to a pectoral strain, the rookie Derek Hagan got the starting nod and turned in six catches for 66 yards against the Jets last week. If he keeps that up, Booker can take all the time off he wants though Hagan was credited with three dropped passes. Hagan will likely start again this week since Booker is likely to still be on the mend. Chris Chambers comes off a season high game though it was only for 60 yards on five catches but he managed to catch the lone Harrington touchdown this season. Wes Welker continues to make the slot matter with his fourth straight game over 50 yards.

Tight Ends: The player most happy about Harrington has to be Randy McMichael who has turned in two games with 84 and 72 yards. That's a good deal more than he had in four games with Culpepper.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers have a solid rush defense and no one has run for more than 81 yards against them. Expect a moderate game from Brown here but one rushing score.

Harrington should have his best game yet against a secondary that has given up two scores in each of the last four games with no opponent falling below 220 yards. This has the potential to be the biggest passing game of the year for the Dolphins if they take advantage of it and don't end up running the ball too much. Look for both scores to go to wideouts - Chambers should be a lock here for one of them.