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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
October 25, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
BAL at NO SF at CHI NYJ at CLE NE at MIN  
HOU at TEN TB at NYG PIT at OAK   updated

Prediction: HOU 14, TEN 17

Imagine - both of these teams coming off of wins and one of them starts a winning streak. The Texans are coming off one of the biggest wins in franchise history when they throttled the Jaguars and the Titans had their first win of the year come on the road in Washington, D.C.. The difference - if there is one - is that the Texans have played four home games this year and both wins came there. On the road so far, they are losing by 23 points on average. The Titans only home games were week one against the Jets and then when Dallas visited and Young had his first start. That should all be good enough for the rested Titans to come off their bye and take a second win on the year.

The Titans swept the Texans last year, winning 34-20 in Houston and later 13-10 in Tennessee.

Houston Texans (2-4)
1 10-24 PHI 10 --- @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 --- BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 --- @NYJ
4 17-15 MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 6-34 @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 27-7 JAX 16 --- IND
8 --- @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 --- @NYG - - -
HOU at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 10 0 210,1
RB Wali Lundy 60,1 20 0
RB Samkon Gado 20 10 0
TE Owen Daniels 0 10 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 90 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50,1 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 20 0
PK Kris Brown 0 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Call it a trash game by Jacksonville or a miracle turnaround by the Texans, it doesn't matter as long as you call it a win. The Texans dominated the Jaguars last week and potentially found a new runner. Or rediscovered rather. The passing game had already improved this year but suddenly the defense and rushing attack was vastly better - a temporary or permanent change?

Quarterback: David Carr is enjoying his best season yet and now has nine touchdowns on the season against only four interceptions. That includes three games with multiple touchdowns. Carr had very little success against the Titans last year, throwing for 131 and 116 yards but scoring once in both games.

Running Backs: Wali Lundy got the nod last week and against the normally stiff Jaguars defense, Lundy ran for 93 yards on 19 carries and scored once while adding 15 yards on four receptions. It was basically twice what Ron Dayne could do in any game and Dayne has now landed as the #3 back in Houston. Samkon Gado was given playing time as well but only produced 27 yards on ten carries. While there is no guarantee that Kubiak will continue to tinker, the one game results were so vastly better than anything else this year that Lundy has to be considered the starter. Kubiak later said that he felt Lundy profited from sitting on the bench for several weeks and learning the game. That's just another way to say "okay, so I was wrong about Dayne."

The Texans with Domanick Davis ran wild over the Titans in 2005, with Davis turning in over 170 total yards in both losses.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson is coming perilously close to the term "un-coverable". he has caught at least eight passes in each of the last four games while scoring twice and topping 100 yards three times. He's not only the entire Houston passing attack, the defenses still cannot stop him. Eric Moulds rarely turns in more than 50 yards in a game and Kevin Walter is just a novelty. This team is all about Andre Johnson and he is delivering the goods.

Andre Johnson only played in one game against the Titans last year and had only 27 yards on three catches in Tennessee.

Tight Ends: The rookie Owen Daniels was a surprise when he became the week one starter this year but in the last four games he has been thrown passes, he has scored in three of them. Granted - he never has much yardage but he is fast becoming an endzone target of choice for Carr. At least when Johnson is covered.

Match Against the Defense: The Titans have a horrible rush defense but the Houston team through week six couldn't do anything about it anyway. If Lundy is more than a one game oddity, he should have at least moderate numbers here and potentially very good ones. Expect at least 60 rushing yards and a decent chance of one score.

The Titans secondary hasn't been a lot better and the numbers allowed have been depressed because opponents typically just run on them. But this is a defense that just faced a team with one good receiver (WAS) and held Santana Moss to just 50 yards. I actually like Moulds to take the weaker match-up for one score in this game though Johnson will get his 12 to 15 passes anyway and log good yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 10 32 19 11 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 28 11 18 17


Tennessee Titans (1-5)
1 16-23 NYJ 10 --- BAL
2 7-40 @SD 11 --- @PHI
3 10-13 @MIA 12 --- NYG
4 14-45 DAL 13 --- IND
5 13-14 @IND 14 --- @HOU
6 25-22 @WAS 15 --- JAX
7 Open Bye 16 --- @BUF
8 --- HOU 17 --- NE
9 --- @JAX - - -
TEN vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young 20 0 170,1
RB Travis Henry 110,1 10 0
RB LenDale White 20 10 0
TE Ben Troupe 0 20 0
WR Drew Bennett 0 40 0
WR Bobby Wade 0 20 0
WR Brandon Jones 0 60,1 0
PK Rob Bironas 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: After a bye week of rest, the Titans face off against a well known foe of the Texans and the continuation of a season that is fairly brutal after this week - JAX, BAL, PHI, NYG and IND before finally hooking up again with the Texans in week 14. The rushing game has blossomed the last two weeks with Travis Henry and this is the same team that only lost to Indy by one point. The big differences? The defense has been getting better and Young is getting more comfortable.

Quarterback: The Titans have seen improvement with Vince Young as a starter and there have been some very encouraging results - finally notching that first win for the season. Young struggled against the Cowboys but still throw for 155 yards and one touchdown. In Indianapolis, he only completed 10 of 21 for 63 yards but ran for 43 yards and one touchdown which came within one point of upsetting the Colts. His last game came against the Redskins in week six when he completed 13 of 25 passes for 161 yards and one touchdown when he actually was able to pull off that upset win on the road.

This week has Young back at home with the Texans visiting - that's about as good as it gets.

Running Backs: The running back carousel in Tennessee now has Chris Brown tucked away as the #3 back and suddenly Travis Henry has been tearing up the field with back-to-back games of 123 and 178 rushing yards. Both came in road games and his touchdown in Washington was part of the reason why the Titans finally had a win for the year. LenDale White ran well against the Colts when he had 48 yards on eight carries but in Washington - it was all Henry. That was more than the Redskins could handle.

After this week, the Titans head to Jacksonville and then host the Ravens, so Henry's revival may not last long, but it could certainly last into this week.

Wide Receivers: Drew Bennett remains the main target for Young but that has never accounted for more than 84 yards in a game and has been as low as just ten yards. Bennett also has not scored a touchdown since week two. David Givens missed the last two games with a thumb injury and could return this week. In his place Brandon Jones has scored once but he's yet to have more than 34 yards in a game. The passing numbers here limit the fantasy value of any wideout and so far, Bennett has been the only choice with some moderate yardage games.

Tight Ends: The big rushing games by Henry have obliterated all fantasy value of the Titans tight ends. Over the last two weeks, Ben Troupe and Bo Scaife have combined for a mere two catches and eight years. Both had been involved in games prior to week five so this week should be an indicator if the tight ends are losing out to the big rushing efforts or if they will return to use.

Match Against the Defense: Travis Henry has been tearing it up lately and now goes against the #31 team at stopping running backs. Expect at least one score from Henry and at least good yardage that can become great if the Titans can just cover Andre Johnson.

Vince Young is still learning and trying not to make mistakes, but the Texans have been very soft against the pass this year up until last week. Figure on this being Young's best game of his young career and to score at least one passing touchdown. That should have favored David Givens if he ever actually played but instead should end up with Brandon Jones.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 29 22 30 16 28 31
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 25 31 20 7 23 12