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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
October 25, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
BAL at NO SF at CHI NYJ at CLE NE at MIN  
HOU at TEN TB at NYG PIT at OAK   updated

Prediction: JAX 13, PHI 27

The nearly unthinkable loss to the Texans sends the Jaguars tumbling to a 3-3 record which breaks down rather neatly. Playing at home, 3-0. Playing on the road, 0-3. A rather consistent pattern prompted by their easiest games coming at home and the toughest match-ups being on the road - until last week. The Eagles are 4-3 now as well after watching a 62 yard field goal beat them on the final play in Tampa Bay. The two teams with the most surprising losses of last week now meet and one stat still matters a lot. The Jaguars are 0-3 on the road.

Update: Byron Leftwich is listed as questionable to play and was held out of practice on Thursday while David Garrard took all the snaps. It looks more likely now that Leftwich will miss the game this week (and should have last week) and I am adding David Garrard into the projections. I am lowering the game score but increasing the passing yardage slightly because of increased "trash time" for Garrard to throw more.

L.J. Smith is questionable with a sore back and was held out on Wednesday but practiced on Thursday and is expected to play. He could be a little limited so I am lowering his projections slightly.

Donte' Stallworth is probable to play and has practiced. I am adding him into the projections but be aware that he could suffer a setback or, of course, hurt his hamstring again during the game. I am taking out Hank Baskett and adding Stallworth.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
1 24-17 DAL 10 --- HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 --- NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 --- @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 --- @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 --- IND
6 Open Bye 15 --- @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 --- NE
8 --- @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 --- TEN - - MON
JAX at PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 10,1 0 210,1
QB David Garrard 20 0 230,1
RB Fred Taylor 50 10 0
RB Maurice Drew 20 60 0
TE George Wrighster 0 20 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 70,1 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 40 0
WR Cortez Hankton 0 10 0
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Nothing like looking all-world with a 41-0 win over the Jets to being dominated by the Texans in every facet of the game. Leftwich played with a sore ankle but the problem was far deeper than just his leg. Having a great defense is fine, but until they remember to load it onto the plane for a road game, the frustration will continue. And now they face the highest scoring offense in the league.

Quarterback: Not unlike his entire career, Byron Leftwich has been all over the map with his production this year. His best game was 289 yards and three scores in Washington when it was not expected. His worst came last week with just 125 yards and no scores against the worst secondary in the league. He is inconsistent and as usual, already banged up this year.

Running Backs: Other than the Washington game, Fred Taylor has quietly been posting at least moderate fantasy numbers this year and comes off a 16 carry, 84 yard effort in Houston with a 19 yard catch added. He also lost his first fumble of the year last week. Taylor only has two scores on the season and both, of course, came in home games.

Maurice Jones-Drew has scored in each of the last four games and has been a constant factor in each game. He had 58 yards on seven catches in Houston and becomes a bigger factor in the passing game whenever the opponent is tough and the game is on the road. He has scored in every road game this year and outplayed Taylor in each.

Wide Receivers: While still waiting for Matt Jones to return, the Jaguars wideouts have been almost replaced by Jones-Drew - at least enough for a noticeable drop. Reggie Williams had been enjoying his best year yet until last week when he had five passes and no catches. Ernest Wilford just chugs along at 30 yards every week regardless of situation and no longer is an endzone target.

Jones was listed as doubtful last week with his lingering groin and hamstring issues and I will assume he misses yet another week. The Jaguars schedule lightens up after this week, so if he has landed your waiver wire and you have the room, he could show up again this year. He's been the biggest disappointment for the Jags this year.

Tight Ends: The plan was for Marcedes Lewis to begin to figure in while phasing out George Wrighster a bit. So far Wrighster has been in decline but Lewis had no catches last week.

Match Against the Defense: In fantasy terms, the Philly defense is nothing special because they typically allow trash time yards if not scores. But the Jags are so inconsistent from week to week and particularly on the road, it is hard to be very confident that they will run will this week. Expect only a moderate to low game from Taylor but for Jones-Drew to show up in the passing game even more. The only backs to score against the Eagles have been big players like Michael Robinson and Marion Barber. The Jags won't likely score on the ground this week.

Leftwich goes against a secondary that has not allowed a passing score in Philly for the last two games and he's hardly been the model of consistency anyway. The Eagles MUST have this win and at home will not let yet another team sneak into the end of the game. The performance of Leftwich will depend in great part on what the Jags defense does to limit McNabb and Westbrook, but the safest bet here is that Leftwich throws for one score and only moderate yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 18 2 25 24 15 20
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 23 17 15 12 21 25


Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)
1 24-10 @HOU 10 --- WAS
2 24-30 NYG 11 --- TEN
3 38-24 @SF 12 --- @IND
4 31-9 GB 13 --- CAR
5 38-24 DAL 14 --- @WAS
6 24-27 @NO 15 --- @NYG
7 21-23 @TB 16 --- @DAL
8 --- JAX 17 --- ATL
9 Open Bye - - MON
PHI vs JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Donovan McNabb 30 0 280,3
RB Brian Westbrook 60 60,1 0
TE L.J. Smith 0 30,1 0
WR Donte Stallworth 0 40 0
WR Reggie Brown 0 100,1 0
WR Greg Lewis 0 30 0
PK David Akers 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Being an Eagle fan this year must be quite a roller coaster ride and almost half the time the coaster jumps the track right at the very end. The Eagles have lost their last two games - both road trips - and now find themselves out of first place in the NFC East despite having a nearly prolific offense. Tampa Bay won last week and never scored an offensive touchdown. The week nine bye awaits after this weekend and a solid win is just the ticket to make the last couple of fiascos seem a little less painful.

Quarterback: Donovan McNabb has been so productive this year that now he has taken to throwing multiple touchdowns to the defense as well. He has never had less than two scores in any game this year and four times has scored three or more times. Playing at home, McNabb has yet to end up with less than 288 passing yards. The Jaguars bring in a good defense that weakens on the road and McNabb needs to win this game with his arm - and not for the opposing defense this time.

Running Backs: If Brian Westbrook's knee is still hurt, he should be outlawed when he is healthy. Westbrook turned in 101 rushing yards on only 13 carries last week in Tampa Bay and he had a mere 113 yards on seven receptions in the same game. He has scored in all but one game this year. You cannot stop him, you cannot contain him. All you can do is just watch. He has a free week coming up to heal any soreness from this game anyway.

Wide Receivers: Donte Stallworth started out huge with two great games to open the season and then hurt his hamstring (Part 9). He will be back, eventually, and it could be this week. I'll update if it appears imminent but with Stallworth you can never be sure.

Reggie Brown has taken over now anyway. Brown has scored in five games this year and comes off a season high 121 yards against the Buccaneers. Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett are relative non-factors since the "triplets" here are Westbrook, Brown and L.J. Smith.

Tight Ends: While L.J. Smith only had 38 yards last week and 48 yards in the game prior that that, his best games this year have been at home with performances of 111 and 63 yards. He always good for 40 yards and at home, usually good for even more.

Match Against the Defense: The vaunted Jaguars defense has never done as well on the road and with multi-threat Westbrook it doesn't really matter much. Expect a good game here and hope for a great one as always.

McNabb is pitted against a secondary that has been much softer on the road this year. All opponents have at least one score and Mark Brunell had three. David Carr just had two. Sure - no reason to expect McNabb to experience any downturn this week. Figure on the usual suspects and a good game by the triplets.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 1 6 1 5 19 6
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 10 13 10 9 6 11