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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 1, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
GB at BUF NO at TB CLE at SD *updated NYJ, PHI

Prediction: GB 24, BUF 20

A messy match-up between two struggling teams, but one interesting note - the Packers are 2-1 on the road this year and the Bills are only 1-2 at home. And the Packers are on a two game winning streak while the Bills have dropped their last three. The Bills are coming off their bye week and the Packers look like they are finally having fun again. Flip a coin on this one.

Update: Greg Jennings remains listed as questionable this week with his sprained ankle but participated in individual drills on Wednesday and then practice fully on Thursday. I am adding him into the projections as it now appears he will likely play.

Green Bay Packers (3-4)
1 0-26 CHI 10 --- @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 --- NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 --- @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 --- @BUF - MON THU
GBP at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 220,2
RB Ahman Green 90,1 30 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 10 0
TE David Martin 0 30,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 70,1 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 50 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 20 0
PK Dave Rayner 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Yeah, sure. The Packers still have a terrible secondary and usually give up at least a couple of scores every week but the rushing game has come to life and Brett Favre has decided to stop thinking about the playoffs and just have fun with it despite missing most of his wideouts. The Packers have scored over 30 points for two straight weeks and Favre is jumping up into the stands for the first time in his career. Nice to see one of the greats actually enjoying what he does for a living.

Quarterback: While Brett Favre may have settled down to around 200 yards and one score in games during the past month, he has not thrown an interception since week four and scored in all but one of the last six games. He even ran in one touchdown last week. The biggest limitation on Favre hasn't been a lack of recievers, it's been the success of the rushing game.

Running Backs: Since returning in week seven, Ahman Green has gained over 100 yards in both match-ups and scored three times. He's running as well as he has in a long time and that's not just because of the opponents. Vernand Morency has a lower back strain and is not expected to play this week so look for Noah Herron to spell Green when the need arises.

Wide Receivers: The Packers receivers are yet again going through injury woes this year. Donald Driver sprained his ankle last week but continued to play and is expected to suit up on Sunday if only because there aren't any more wideouts to use. Greg Jennings was inactive last Sunday because of his sprained ankle and will be questionable this week too. I will assume he misses one more week but will update as needed.

Ruvell Martin has been pressed into service and has back to back games of just two catches for 25 yards. Without Driver, this would easily be the worst cast of wideouts in the league.

Tight Ends: The expectation last week was that Favre would rely on his tight ends more but he used David Martin who ended with four catches for 48 yards and one touchdown. Neither Donald Lee nor Bubba Franks even had a pass thrown to them. The success running the ball had much to do with that. In week seven, Favre used all three tight ends and again scored with Martin.

Match Against the Defense: Ahman Green gets to run against the 27th ranked defense against running backs and he'll be called on again this week to help carry the team. The Bills have given up five rushing touchdowns in just the last three games.

Favre goes against a secondary that has always allowed at least one or two touchdowns and usually decent yardage. But really big games never happen because opponents can run easier than pass. Look for one score from Favre and around 200 yards with a couple of scores that will favor Driver and Martin or Franks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 13 8 15 15 10 9
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 12 27 23 11 11 22


Buffalo Bills (2-5)
1 17-19 @NE 10 --- @IND
2 16-6 @MIA 11 --- @HOU
3 20-28 NYJ 12 --- JAX
4 17-12 MIN 13 --- SD
5 7-40 @CHI 14 --- @NYJ
6 17-20 @DET 15 --- MIA
7 6-28 NE 16 --- TEN
8 Open Bye 17 --- @BAL
9 --- GB - - -
BUF vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman 0 0 260,2
RB Willis McGahee 70 20 0
TE Robert Royal 0 10 0
WR Peerless Price 0 50 0
WR Lee Evans 0 120,2 0
WR Josh Reed 0 50 0
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Standing at 2-5 with a three game losing steak, it's hard to remember how the Bills were able to beat the Vikings. The offense has never scored more than 20 points in any game this year while the defense regularly gets ripped via the run. With McGahee stuck in second gear and Losman occasionally going into reverse, the Bills aren't getting too far down the road this year.

Quarterback: J.P. Losman continues to slide, coming off a 193 yard effort against the Patriots in week seven with no scores. He had been throwing for one touchdown in each of the five previous weeks but only once got as high as two scores. Just as important, Losman has been on a turnover kick lately with five interceptions and three lost fumbles in the last three games. He's doing his career no favors as of late.

Running Backs: As the Bills offense stumbles, so does the production of Willis McGahee who only has one game over 100 yards - week three against the visiting Jets. He only has one score on the season as well and has been below 70 rushing yards in each of the last three games. McGahee had 61 yards on just two catches in the last game played but typically only has about two catches for ten yards in most games.

Wide Receivers: While the Bills will mix in Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed with Peerless Price, none of the three have any reliable fantasy value this year. Other than the 104 yards that Parrish gained in week three, none of the trio has exceeded 53 yards in any game this year. Lee Evans had been clicking along with 80 or more yards for the last month, he too settled down with just one catch for 11 yards against the Patriots in week seven. Evans only has one score on the season but he is the only Bill's receiver with any fantasy merit each week.

Tight Ends: Robert Royal comes off a season high game with four catches for 36 yards but that was the first time this year he had more than one catch in a game.

Match Against the Defense: Willis McGahee looks to have another moderate game this week against a rushing defense that is actually pretty good. There's a chance he could get his second score on the year here but the yardage allowed by the Packers has yet to produce a 100 yard runner in 2006.

Losman faces a horrible secondary and needs to have a big game here because he is not cementing his future in Buffalo with his recent play. Look for two passing scores this week that have to favor a big game for Lee Evans finally. There should be another wideout score here but neither Price nor Reed have done much to promote confidence. If only because of his heavy workload, I will give the second score to Evans but it is no lock of course. There is no strong side to the Packers defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 25 28 18 30 23 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 20 32 10 27 14