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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 1, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
GB at BUF NO at TB CLE at SD *updated NYJ, PHI

Prediction: HOU 10, NYG 24

Just when the Texans looked like they turned a corner with a win over the Jaguars, they get sent to the corner again with yet another road loss. The Giants are looking like a definite NFC contender now and the Texans merely get in the way temporarily.

Houston Texans (2-5)
1 10-24 PHI 10 --- @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 --- BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 --- @NYJ
4 17-15 MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 6-34 @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 27-7 JAX 16 --- IND
8 22-28 @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 --- @NYG - - -
HOU at NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 190,1
RB Wali Lundy 60 30 0
TE Owen Daniels 0 20 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 80,1 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 10 0
PK Kris Brown 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Texans are on a two game wining streak if you can count only home games (and you cannot) but on the road, they've made opponents look very good. Carr was benched last week for turning over the ball like he was handing out Halloween candy and had to watch Sage Rosenfels come in and throw for three scores in the losing effort. That's as many scores as Carr had in the four previous games combined. But at least one positive carried over from the Jaguars win - the Texans have a running game again.

Quarterback: David Carr was benched last week after throwing an interception and losing two fumbles but HC Gary Kubiak said that it was just a timeout and not any change in the depth chart. Shame too since Sage Rosenfels threw for three scores and 186 yards in less than one half of play. Carr started the year out with games over 200 yards and one score every week. Now he is back to his inconsistent ways that most often go bad on the road.

Running Backs: Looking back, what was Kubiak thinking when he pulled Wali Lundy from the starting rotation after two games against IND and PHI? New offense and two very tough opponents. In the last two weeks, Lundy has locked up the job with efforts of 108 and 149 total yards. Against the Titans he turned 18 carries into 116 yards and added five catches for 33 more yards. More than a few people thought "Domanick II".

Wide Receivers: While Andre Johnson remains the stud here, no other wideouts have been doing much even with the three touchdown game last week. Johnson had nine catches for 78 yards and his fourth touchdown in the last six games but Eric Moulds ended with three receptions for 35 yards and that is about the norm for him over the last month. Kevin Walter in the slot does even less. It's all about Johnson here - no other wideout really matters and no others have scored since week one besides Johnson.

Tight Ends: Owen Daniels is certainly a surprise. A rookie tight end in Houston wouldn't normally evoke much notice but Owens has scored in four of the last five games that he has played, including a nine catch, 99-yard effort last week. That spark in yardage is more than his yardage in all other games combined. But both scores game later in the fourth quarter - and from Rosenfels, not Carr.

Match Against the Defense: Wali Lundy faces one of the best rushing defenses in the league, particularly lately. The Giants have only allowed one rusher to score in New York this year and the Texans and Colts are not considered 1:1. Don't expect a touchdown this week or much rushing yardage but Lundy could still produce some fantasy points via the pass.

Carr seemingly has a great match-up this week! The 29th ranked defense against quarterbacks! Well, think again. The Giants have only allowed one passing score in their three home stands (Peyton) and the last two teams left with less than 140 passing yards each. I like Houston to throw for one touchdown and no more. That pretty much has to favor Johnson but could be with Daniels again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 8 32 20 8 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 29 9 11 25 8 8


New York Giants (5-2)
1 21-26 IND 10 --- CHI
2 30-24 @PHI 11 --- @JAX
3 30-42 @SEA 12 --- @TEN
4 Open Bye 13 --- DAL
5 19-3 WAS 14 --- @CAR
6 27-14 @ATL 15 --- PHI
7 36-22 @DAL 16 --- NO
8 17-3 TB 17 --- @WAS
9 --- HOU - MON SAT
NYG vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 0 0 210,2
RB Tiki Barber 110 30 0
RB Brandon Jacobs 30,1 0 0
TE Jeremy Shockey 0 30,1 0
WR Amani Toomer 0 30 0
WR Plaxico Burress 0 90,1 0
WR Tim Carter 0 20 0
PK Jay Feeley 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Giants are clearly on a roll, with four consecutive wins and never by less than 13 points. That includes road wins over the Cowboys and Falcons. The offense has been hot all season long and now the defense has been stepping up - not a good sign for the rest of the league. As for Houston, they get to go to New York where the Redskins and Buccaneers were only able to post three points on this defense.

Quarterback: About the only thing holding Eli Manning back from bigger numbers is the success of the rushing game. Manning has thrown a score in every game this year and has 14 touchdowns on the season - only McNabb and big brother Peyton has more. Manning worst games have all come at home - because the defense and running game are more than enough so far.

Running Backs: After three straight weeks with 110+ rushing yards, Tiki Barber only managed 68 yards on 28 carries in the blustery game last week. That was his first home game this year less than 100 yards but when the opponent cannot even score one touchdown, there was no reason to worry. Expect a bounce back this week with the soft Texans coming to town.

Brandon Jacobs is like Marion Barber of the North. Jacobs has run for 40 yards and scored in each of the last three games. When the goal line is near, Jacobs straps on a helmet.

Wide Receivers: Even with the windy game last week, Plaxico Burress had seven catches for 86 yards and one touchdown and almost had a second. He has scored in all but two games this year and always at home. Amani Toomer has become almost invisible in this offense now with less than 30 yards in each of the last three games. When the Giants are at home, Burress remains a target but all others have been all but forgotten for the wideouts.

Tight Ends: Jeremy Shockey comes off his worst game in a long, turning in just three catches for 15 yards last week and dropping a couple of passes. Shockey has been off his normal pace this year though he has been slowed by nagging foot and ankle problems. He still has four touchdowns on the year even if his yardage has never been over 59 yards yet.

Match Against the Defense: Let the Texans pick their poison. Playing at home always means a nice game by Barber so expect at least 120 total yards and one score by Jacobs. It could go higher.

Manning will throw for one or two touchdowns because he does not know how not to score but much more than that probably won't happen. With Chicago coming to town next week, the Giants will do only as much as needed to win this game. Expect Burress to continue his scoring streak at home. The Texans are also very weak against tight ends and Shockey needs a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 11 7 7 11 8 6
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 26 25 19 5 21 23