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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 1, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
GB at BUF NO at TB CLE at SD *updated NYJ, PHI

Prediction: KC 20, STL 27

The Chiefs come into this game only 1-2 on the road and needing a win to hope to keep pace in the AFC West where they trail both Denver and San Diego by one game. The Rams are tied with the Seahawks for the NFC West now that Seattle has broken down for three losses. The Rams are 2-1 at home and trying to break a two game losing streak.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
1 10-23 CIN 10 --- @MIA
2 6-9 @DEN 11 --- OAK
3 Open Bye 12 --- DEN
4 41-0 SF 13 --- @CLE
5 23-20 @ARZ 14 --- BAL
6 7-45 @PIT 15 --- @SD
7 30-27 SD 16 --- @OAK
8 35-28 SEA 17 --- JAX
9 --- @STL - THU SAT
KCC at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Damon Huard 0 0 220,1
RB Larry Johnson 80,1 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 40 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 50 0
WR Samie Parker 0 50,1 0
WR Dante Hall 0 10 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs have won their last two games and taken down the Seahawks and Chargers in the process but those did come at home. The last road game was the 45-7 stomping that the Steelers gave them and even the lone win was by just a field goal in Arizona. Huard is getting antsy again since Trent Green is getting better but at least there's no question about Larry Johnson - long as he is at home.

Quarterback: Damon Huard comes off a career best game with 312 yards and one score against the Seahawks last week but the big concern here is that the Chiefs on the road are not that good and Huard leads the retreat. In Arizona, Huard did have 288 yards and two scores but his other two road efforts against more formidable defense came up with just 133 yards in Denver and 162 yards in Pittsburgh - without any scores.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson warmed many fantasy owners' hearts last week when he had four touchdowns and 181 total yards. His 39 carries was a franchise record as was his 41 touches. He had a monster game the week before that as well. Problem here is that Johnson has been unstoppable at home when he has had over 100 yards and at least two touchdowns in each of the last three games at Arrowhead. But on the road, Johnson only has one score in three games. In the last two efforts away from home, he only had 25 and 36 rushing yards. When his rushing yardage goes down, his receiving yards go up but he is consistently a far less productive runner on the road.

Wide Receivers: Not unlike Johnson, the wideouts struggle on the road as well and Samie Parker has the lone touchdown in an away game. No wideout has turned in more than 72 yards on the road and Eddie Kennison in particular has been much worse away from Arrowhead. Kennison only has a high if 57 yards when playing an away game and has never scored.

Tight Ends: This dichotomy between home and away is just as pronounced with Tony Gonzalez. He comes off the last two weeks with 116 and 138 yards - both at home. On the road this year, he has a total of six catches for 47 from three games combined and a high of just 25 yards.

Match Against the Defense: The Rams have been particularly soft against the run this year but that mostly comes from facing players like Tomlinson on the road (240 yards, 3 TD's last week). At home, the Rams have given up three scores and two games over 90 yards so there is hope that Johnson can still get some good numbers this week. It won't be as big as the last two weeks, but he should total 100 yards and score once.

Huard faces a secondary that has been tough against all tight ends - even Gates - but that has allowed several receivers to turn in decent games, hence their higher rankings. Plus the Rams have not faced a running back that has been catching many passes either. Look for one score from Huard - every team has that much but more than that will be a surprise. That favors Parker the most.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 4 25 9 13 24
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 10 30 31 2 24 13


St. Louis Rams (4-3)
1 18-10 DEN 10 --- @SEA
2 13-20 @SF 11 --- @CAR
3 16-14 @ARZ 12 --- SF
4 41-34 DET 13 --- ARZ
5 23-20 @GB 14 --- CHI
6 28-30 SEA 15 --- @OAK
7 Open Bye 16 --- WAS
8 24-38 @SD 17 --- @MIN
9 --- KC - - MON
STL vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Marc Bulger 0 0 270,2
RB Steven Jackson 80,1 40 0
TE J. Klopfenstein 0 20 0
WR Torry Holt 0 90,1 0
WR Isaac Bruce 0 70,1 0
WR Kevin Curtis 0 40 0
PK Jeff Wilkins 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Rams were cruising along this year until both Seattle and San Diego beat them in the most recent games. Now at 4-3, the Rams need to get back on the winning track. The defense has been getting worse as the season progresses but the passing offense has been heating up just like Linehan did in Miami last year. That's come at the expense of Steven Jackson's rushing numbers but even he has been included in the passing game. All they need now is just a win before they head out to Seattle and Carolina for even bigger challenges.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger has benefited from the new offense more and more every week. He is not throwing interceptions any more - only one on the season - and he's not constantly battered as in previous years. That has left him to turn in four of the last five games over 300 yards and the last month has seen him with at least two scores in every game. In the first three weeks of the season, he only had two touchdowns. In the last four games, he's added ten more.

Running Backs: Steven Jackson has not passed the 100 yard mark since week two but that hasn't stopped him from topping 100 total yards in all but one week. His role in the rushing game has been around 20 carries each week and he's scored three of the last four times. But he has been stuck around 80 yards in most games. But his inclusion in the passing game has made all the difference here, and he's been averaging about five catches for 50 yards for the last five games. He's turning into Marshall Faulk on steroids.

Wide Receivers: Torry Holt finally had a quiet game when he only managed five catches for 48 yards in San Diego but that was the first time he was denied a score in six games. Holt leads all fantasy wideouts currently even with the clunker game because he's not only had the big games, they are consistent and always include a score. Holt has never had less than 80 yards in a home game this year. Isaac Bruce comes off a season high 105 yards last week but his use is much less consistent than Holt. This offense can move with Bruce and Kevin Curtis, but the entire game plan is predicated on Holt first.

Tight Ends: Joe Klopfenstein only had one catch for three yards in San Diego, but he has been staying around 25 yards or so in the previous four games.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs defense on the road has been far less stout and has given up over 100 total yards to at least one runner in each road game. Look for Steven Jackson to continue his normal pace this week.

Bulger has been hot recently and the Chiefs secondary on the road has been rather cold giving up five scores in the last two away games. Holt will get his yards and a score even if they have to move him around but no wideout has had more than 82 yards against the Chiefs this year. Look for Bruce or Curtis to supply the other score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 7 15 1 23 3 18
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 6 17 22 8 22 20