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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 1, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Late
Sunday night
On Bye
GB at BUF NO at TB CLE at SD *updated NYJ, PHI

Prediction: TEN 3, JAX 24

The Titans bring their two game winning streak into Jacksonville where the Jaguars are undefeated this year. In fact, the Jaguars have won every home game and lost every road game until last week when they did the unthinkable and shut down the Eagles in Philadelphia. This is a divisional game and with the Jags already trailing the Colts by three games, there's no margin for error here.

Update: According to Leftwich, David Garrard will be starting this week despite Leftwich considering himself healthy enough to play. The Jaguars did downgrade him to questionable on Thursday. While Garrard and Leftwich split snaps on Wednesday in practice, Garrard took all the snaps with the first team on Thursday. I originally projected for Garrard anyway, but this update is warranted since it was not certain earlier in the week.

Bobby Wade is questionable this week with a shoulder injury but that happened on the first kickoff of the Houston game last week and Wade continued to play. Wade was held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday but has not been counted out this week. I am leaving his projections alone but be aware that he could end up inactive this week. David Given remains questionable due to his thumb injury but was able to practice this week and may see some playing time. I am not adding him into the projections though he could play.

Tennessee Titans (2-5)
1 16-23 NYJ 10 --- BAL
2 7-40 @SD 11 --- @PHI
3 10-13 @MIA 12 --- NYG
4 14-45 DAL 13 --- IND
5 13-14 @IND 14 --- @HOU
6 25-22 @WAS 15 --- JAX
7 Open Bye 16 --- @BUF
8 28-22 HOU 17 --- NE
9 --- @JAX - - -
TEN at JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young 30 0 120
RB Travis Henry 30 10 0
RB LenDale White 20 0 0
TE Ben Troupe 0 10 0
WR Drew Bennett 0 30 0
WR Bobby Wade 0 30 0
WR Brandon Jones 0 20 0
WR David Givens 0 10 0
PK Rob Bironas 1 FG 0 XP -

Pregame Notes: Back-to-back wins makes for some giddy times in Tennessee but the upcoming schedule is going to be brutal - @JAX, BAL and @PHI. The Titans have played mediocre teams close but have withered whenever facing a good defense. This week - it is a great defense.

Quarterback: The Titans have won two in a row and while Vince Young has been a part of that, it hasn't been much because of his passing numbers. Young threw for a career high 161 yards and one touchdown against the Redskins but only completed 13 of 25 passes. Against the Texans last Sunday, Young only went 7 of 15 for 87 passing yards but he did throw one touchdown. He also added four runs for 44 yards and another score which provided the winning margin. While his yardage and completion percentage has not been impressive, he has gone two games now without a turnover and has shown his worth with running the ball.

Running Backs: Travis Henry looked like a waiver wire gold mine when he had games of 123 and 178 rushing yards but against the Texans, he reverted back to the same Henry of the past. He only gained 29 yards on 15 carries while the rookie LenDale White fared better on his seven runs for 35 yards. The Titans have spent the last several weeks with White getting around eight runs each game while Henry takes the bulk of the load. One game isn't likely enough to change that rotation but two games could be. Henry will be challenged to do much in Jacksonville this week and White could sneak in a few decent runs yet again when the defense sees Henry out of the game.

Wide Receivers: The marginal passing numbers have stripped the fantasy value from this group though Young has always tried to focus on getting the ball to Drew Bennett. Last week that only meant that six passes became just one catch for 23 yards. Brandon Jones had looked like he was starting to slightly emerge but had no catches last week. Bobby Wade scored a touchdown against the Texans but doesn't always have even one catch in every game. It's just not a source for fantasy starters yet.

David Givens appears likely to return this week from his fractured thumb but this is a bad sense of timing really.

Tight Ends: If there is one thing certain about Vince Young, it is that his mobility has bought him enough time that he rarely uses the tight ends for any dump off passes and both Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe have been almost invisible since Young took the reins.

Match Against the Defense: The Titans bring an offense that ranks in the bottom ten in most categories to face a defense that is top ten virtually everywhere and is at home where they have never lost a game. This bodes poorly for a rushing game that hasn't done much this year until Henry had a temporary revival that died against the Texans. Look for low rushing numbers here that could be even less if White continues to cut into Henry's action.

Young hasn't been throwing much or particularly well and that won't change here. He doesn't even have a favorite receiver yet and the minimal passing will get spread throughout the cast of receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 24 25 29 17 31 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 7 10 7 6 7 6

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
1 24-17 DAL 10 --- HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 --- NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 --- @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 --- @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 --- IND
6 Open Bye 15 --- @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 --- NE
8 13-6 @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 --- TEN - - MON
JAX vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 20 0 160,1
RB Fred Taylor 100,1 10 0
RB Maurice Drew 60,1 30 0
TE George Wrighster 0 10 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 30 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 20 0
WR Matt Jones 0 50,1 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Nothing like getting throttled in Houston and then dominating the Eagles to display the wonderful sense of inconsistency of the Jaguars. But back at home this week should be almost a given since the team is 3-0 there and have already recorded shutouts in the last two efforts.

Quarterback: With Leftwich inactive last week, David Garrard took the start and directed the team to a very impressive win. He just didn't do it as a passing quarterback. With the rushing game working so well, Garrard only threw 17 passes in the game with 10 completions for 87 yards. But he took off on eight runs for 36 yards, often extending drives with his legs rather than his arm.

Byron Leftwich expects that he will be ready to start practicing on Wednesday and that he will be ready to play this week. That remains to be seen and until he is named the starter, I am going to project for Garrard as the starter. Updates on Friday as warranted. The starter in this game could have some nice fantasy numbers unless the running game continues to dominate. HC Jack Del Rio is already playing games by declining to name a starter as if it will have some big bearing on the outcome of this game.

Leftwich threw for 259 yards and three scores in Nashville last year but was out injured for the second meetings.

Running Backs: The Jacksonville running game was awesome last week when Fred Taylor cruised for 103 yards and one score on just 15 carries. That makes three straight games over 80 yards for Taylor who has been kept fresh this year by the rookie Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars elected to feature Jones-Drew more last week when he had a season high 21 carries for 77 yards and added 20 more on three receptions. Jones had scored in each of the four previous games until last week. While both runners are limiting what either could do with a more full-time role, the net result has been more than satisfactory for the Jaguars. There's no reason to change anything.

Taylor only played in the first game against the Titans last year and lost eight yards on six carries. Greg Jones took over and gained 33 yards on 16 runs. In the home match-up, Toefield ran for 102 yards and one touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Matt Jones returned to the lineup after missing two games with a hamstring injury and caught two passes for 32 yards last week. He's only played in four games this year and has yet to score or top 73 yards in any game. For a supposed sleeper pick last summer, Jones has been a flop thanks at least in part to his injury. Jones has two catches but only had two passes. He's not completely back quite yet. Reggie Williams was hot before the week six bye but hasn't done anything since. In the two games played, he only had one catch. Other than in the Redskins match-up, these wideouts have only been effective in home games this year.

Matt Jones never had more than 55 yards but he scored in both games against the Titans in 2005. The only other wideout with any yardage or scores was Jimmy Smith.

Tight Ends: George Wrighster teased with his performance prior to the bye week break and even had a touchdown catch but he only had three catches for seven yards in the last two games. That could be related to needing a healthy Leftwich as much as anything.

Match Against the Defense: The rushing game was on fire last week for the Jags and now the #29 defense against running backs comes to town. Look for very solid efforts from both Taylor and Jones-Drew and at least two rushing scores between them.

Garrard - or even Leftwich - shouldn't have big numbers here because they won't need them. In the past the Texans had a good rush defense and a bad secondary but now it's pretty much all bad - at least on the road it will be. Look for one passing score just because they can but for lower yardage. No need to press since there are harder games to come. While Reggie Williams was the favorite of Leftwich, Matt Jones is back and has a good chance for one score here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 23 2 27 25 12 23
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 25 29 26 21 13 15