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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 15, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
CIN at NO PIT at CLE     updated

Prediction: NYG 17, JAX 20

Here's a big game that featured the banged up Giants needing a win to stay in the lead for the NFC East and the Jaguars coming off an embarrassing, error-filed loss to the Texans.... AGAIN. At 5-4, the Jaguars can pretty much write off ever catching the Colts this year but their very playoffs hopes for a wildcard could be in jeopardy with another loss. The Giants were cruising along and looking "super" until they lost Amani Toomer and LT Luke Petitgout. By the time Chicago was done with them last week, the Giants were curled up in a fetal position wondering what just happened. This is a Monday night game that could leave the audience wondering "what happened to the offenses?"

As an added bonus, this game features HC Tom Coughlin returning to Jacksonville where he was the head coach until being fired.

New York Giants (6-3)
1 21-26 IND 10 20-38 CHI
2 30-24 @PHI 11 --- @JAX
3 30-42 @SEA 12 --- @TEN
4 Open Bye 13 --- DAL
5 19-3 WAS 14 --- @CAR
6 27-14 @ATL 15 --- PHI
7 36-22 @DAL 16 --- NO
8 17-3 TB 17 --- @WAS
9 14-10 HOU - MON SAT
NYG at JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 0 0 180,1
RB Tiki Barber 100 30 0
RB Brandon Jacobs 10,1 0 0
TE Jeremy Shockey 0 50,1 0
WR David Tyree 0 30 0
WR Plaxico Burress 0 60 0
WR Tim Carter 0 10 0
PK Jay Feeley 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: What to think about a team that was on a five game winning streak with impressive road victories over Atlanta and Dallas but the team just imploded last week and now has injury problems on both sides of the line. While any team can drop a game in any given week, the loss of Michael Strahan, Amani Toomer and now Petitgout seemed to really take its toll. The Giants were unable to mount a comeback when things went badly and now they head to yet another sound defense.

Quarterback: Eli Manning is staging another late season decline. Starting out with good yardage through the first five weeks, he dropped below 200 yards and hasn't been above the mark since. Manning had multiple scores in all but one game through week seven but then had single touchdowns and last week there was no score against the Bears. And he had just 121 passing yards against two interceptions. The Giants really need a confidence builder right now but have two road games before hosting the suddenly resurgent Cowboys in week 13. Manning needs to get back to form or a great start is going to fall apart due to injuries and Manning's failure to adjust and compensate.

Running Backs: Tiki Barber injured his thumb last week but re-entered the game and still turned in 141 rushing yards on just 19 carries against the Bears defense - he is not the source of any problems. Barber only has one touchdown on the season but that's what Brandon Jacobs is for. The bruising second-year player has six scores on the year and had two touchdowns against the Bears - the only ones they have allowed to a running back this year.

With no indication that Barber's thumb is an issue, I am assuming that he'll be fine this week.

Wide Receivers: The loss of Toomer has hit this squad hard, and if Plaxico Burress has any more back problems, it could be a killer. Burress only managed to catch four passes for 48 yards against the Bears and became an even greater focus of the defense without the veteran Toomer around. The Giants will likely use Tim Carter as the starting flanker and put David Tyree as the slot receiver. The options are limited and Carter has been a non-factor in almost every game this year. Tyree has had marginal success in limited play but has scored once this year.

The Giants also drafted Sinorice Moss this year but he has been unable to play due to a lingering quad injury. It's pretty much up to Burress now.

Tight Ends: Jeremy Shockey was needed to step up last week with Toomer gone but he only managed to catch one pass for 15 yards. With Carter and Tyree unlikely to shine in a possession role, Shockey is the natural choice to fill the void - if Manning can get him the ball.

Match Against the Defense: Not a great time for struggles on the offense going to Jacksonville where a top ten defense in every category resides. But Jacksonville has had their own set of problems offensively and that bleeds over to the defense. Barber is easily the best back to face the Jaguars this year and he's remained hot even with the other problems. Expect at least a decent rushing effort by Barber who could have a greater call in the passing game now that Toomer has left. Figure on Jacobs scoring once in this game.

Manning faces a secondary that has allowed only two passing scores in the last five home games and never much yardage. No reason why Manning cannot score once but more than that would be a major success and the yardage should remain below 200 again this week. Look for Shockey to reel in the score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 18 7 14 11 13 9
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 6 8 4 9 2 6


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
1 24-17 DAL 10 10-13 HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 --- NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 --- @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 --- @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 --- IND
6 Open Bye 15 --- @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 --- NE
8 13-6 @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 37-7 TEN - - MON
JAX vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 0 0 180,1
RB Fred Taylor 70 10 0
RB Maurice Drew 50,1 30 0
TE George Wrighster 0 10,1 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 20 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 60 0
WR Matt Jones 0 40 0
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Texans don't have much to hang their hat on this season, but playing the Jaguars has certainly been a high point to their year. The Jags lost, again, to Houston and this time around treated the hometown fans with the spectacle. The offense is sputtering when it tries to pass while the defense has remained generally good so far, at least in all the home games. There's still controversy swirling around the quarterback position and losing two of the last four games has cast a shadow on the rest of the season. Those pesky Texans have ruined what has otherwise been a promising year.

Quarterback: Here's a mess. Byron Leftwich insists he is healthy enough to play but the Jaguars do not agree (or maybe don't care - depends on who you ask). Leftwich is due to get a second opinion this week on his ankle so there will be updates is warranted. While Leftwich wasn't playing at a high level when he was injured, Garrard has been even worse and comes off a four interception game against Houston. In three starts, Garrard played well against the Titans but had no scores against the Eagles or Texans.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor is running plenty well lately, he just rarely gets the chance to turn in a big game because of a lack of carries. Taylor has not had more than 16 runs in any of the last four games despite gaining 329 yards on just 56 carries in that time. That's a 5.9 yard average.

Maurice Jones-Drew is partly to blame but even he has only had 11 carries over the last two weeks. Jones was used at the goal line against Houston and scored his sixth touchdown on the season. He still factors in more on third downs in a receiving role.

Wide Receivers: The sloppy passing by Garrard has been made worse by a crew of wideouts that have dropped passes. Matt Jones only had one catch for 11 yards last week though he allowed two catchable balls to ping off him for interceptions. Reggie Williams just gets one catch per week for the last month and Ernest Wilford only had two catches last week for a total of 50 yards - his best effort since week one. The passing game has changed dramatically without Leftwich and not for the better.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value outside the rare touchdown catch by George Wrighster.

Match Against the Defense: The Giants defense is much worse then their rankings lately, particularly without Michael Strahan to harass the opposing quarterback. The Giants have given up three rushing scores to road opponents this year and that should result in at least one rushing score in this game. Taylor and Maurice-Jones should have at least moderate games here but either could have a big one if the Jags could and would commit to the run.

Garrard has been wildly erratic so far and the Giants secondary is not the greatest but how that plays out is hard to forecast. Most reasonably look for one score to go to Wrighster while the wideouts divide up marginal production.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 20 2 26 22 10 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 29 7 13 25 6 10