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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 15, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
CIN at NO PIT at CLE     updated

Prediction: OAK 3, KC 20

The Raiders come off yet another loss that looked like it could have been a win and the dissension only grows. The Chiefs dropped their game in Miami after three dominating wins over better opponents than the Dolphins. But the Chiefs are 3-1 at home and the Raiders are 0-4 on the road. No reason to expect those trends to change.

The Chiefs swept the Raiders last year, winning 23-17 in Oakland and later 27-23 in Oakland.

Update: Aaron Brooks is splitting first team snaps with Andrew Walter and HC Art Shell said he has not decided on which one to start this week like it will magically make any difference. I will leave the projections as is but in the very unfortunate case you are starting Andrew Walter, realize there is a chance he could split time with Brooks in the game or even have Brooks take all the action. It would be advisable to start another quarterback than Walter this week but it's hard to imagine there would be anyone left on your roster you hadn't already considered.

Trent Green has been cleared to practice and play and will be returning this week. I am adjusting the projections accordingly but the Chiefs should not have to pass much this week and there's no reason to expose Green to any more hits than neccessary.

Tony Gonzalez is listed as doubtful but there is no expectation that he will be able to play this week.

Oakland Raiders (2-7)
1 0-27 SD 10 13-17 DEN
2 6-28 @BAL 11 --- @KC
3 Open Bye 12 --- @SD
4 21-24 CLE 13 --- HOU
5 20-34 @SF 14 --- @CIN
6 3-13 @DEN 15 --- STL
7 22-9 ARZ 16 --- KC
8 20-13 PIT 17 --- @NYJ
9 0-16 @SEA - MON SAT
OAK at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Walter 0 0 120
RB Lamont Jordan 50 10 0
TE Courtney Anderson 0 20 0
TE Randal Williams 0 20 0
WR Randy Moss 0 30 0
WR Alvis Whitted 0 20 0
WR Ronald Curry 0 20 0
PK S. Janikowski 1 FG 0 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Raiders battled the Broncos last week and only lost 13-17. That could have come from the Raiders failing to take the Raiders seriously enough and since they won - who could blame them? Now the Raiders are on the road where three of the four efforts this year have failed to record a single touchdown. Warren Sapp still cares - but it is hard to find him a buddy on this team.

Quarterback: The folly not only continues, it is even getting worse. Andrew Walter is getting battered each week and has already been saved 44 times this season. The Raiders as a team has 47 - 13 more sacks than the #2 worse Browns. Walter hasn't had a touchdown pass in three games and only has three on the season. He's thrown nine interceptions and lost seven fumbles. And now he is complaining about the play calling and ticking off HC Art Shell who evidently doesn't believe Walter has the stature that would justify airing dirty laundry in public. Go figure.

I am going to project for Walter to start this week but Shell has already mentioned that maybe Aaron Brooks is healthy enough to play. If nothing else, some time off might allow Walter's bruises to heal.

Running Backs: In a wonderful piece of irony, Lamont Jordan scored only his second touchdown on the year last week and yet only managed to gain 12 yards on ten carries. This was made possible because Art Shell likes to shuttle in Justin Fargas now so that the can run eight times for a net six yard loss last Sunday. And that was after Fargas only had one run for a two yard loss the previous week. In an alternate universe, this likely all makes sense. In Oakland, that's probably will be where the next offensive coordinator will come from anyway.

Jordan ran for 59 and 93 yards in two match-ups against the Chiefs last year. He scored only once during the home game.

Wide Receivers: Randy Moss finally has settled to the lowest point now, catching only one pass for eight yards last week. Moss mentioned on a radio show that he admittedly is not trying that hard because no one cares and it doesn't matter. But he said if it ever mattered in the future, he would return to being a superstar. Thanks Randy... thanks a lot...

Perhaps Brooks would re-energize this unit but he would be stating at near zero with no where to go but up.

Tight Ends: Randal Williams had never caught more than two passes in any game during his six-year career. Naturally, he caught five passes for 61 yards last week. That's roughly equal to his season total.

Match Against the Defense: What to expect from the Raiders is almost an aside from how they match up with the defense. Given recent history, it's unrealistic to expect a touchdown from any player here. The Raiders have a grand total of three points over the last two road trips and nothing has changed. On the road, the risk far exceeds the reward.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 32 26 29 18 30 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 5 19 24 4 20 16


Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
1 10-23 CIN 10 10-13 @MIA
2 6-9 @DEN 11 --- OAK
3 Open Bye 12 --- DEN
4 41-0 SF 13 --- @CLE
5 23-20 @ARZ 14 --- BAL
6 7-45 @PIT 15 --- @SD
7 30-27 SD 16 --- @OAK
8 35-28 SEA 17 --- JAX
9 31-17 @STL - THU SAT
KCC vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 170
RB Larry Johnson 130,2 30 0
TE Jason Dunn 0 20 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 60 0
WR Samie Parker 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 10 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: That loss in Miami hurt since it dropped the Chiefs two full games behind the Broncos and Chargers. But it came during "upset" week and the previous three games were all high-scoring wins. Trent Green remains on the sideline at least this week and now Tony Gonzalez will be joining him while he recuperates for two or three weeks. The Chiefs will naturally want to look past this game at week 12 when Denver comes to town and likely - they could get away with it.

Quarterback: Damon Huard did himself no favors by failing to score against the Dolphins in the loss last week but the writing is on the wall already - Green gets the job when he is ready. It just won't be this week. Huard has proven to be an adequate back-up but he may be leaving at the right time since Gonzalez has been his crutch in most games.

Green threw for 237 yards and no score in Oakland during 2005 and later had 221 yards and two scores back at home.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson saw his string of three 100+ yard games snap last week when he ended with 75 yards on 18 carries but he still scored once and boosted his season total to 12 touchdowns - second best in the league. His 891 rushing yards ranks #3 in the NFL. This week he gets to face the Raiders at home - the same place where the last two games saw him score a total of six times.

The Chiefs ran for 126 yards and two scores using both Johnson and Priest Holmes in Oakland last year and later Johnson ran for 107 yards and two scores when the Raiders came to Kansas City.

Wide Receivers: The wideouts here haven't done much for the entire season but with Gonzalez out, this crew will need to step up until he returns. Eddie Kennison has just two scores on the year and usually ends up around 50 yards in most weeks while Samie Parker only has one touchdown this season and usually just 20 yards each week. Those numbers cannot continue next week when Denver shows up.

No wideout scored in either of the meetings with the Raiders last year and Kennison's 60 yards in Kansas City was the most put up against Oakland.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez has a sprained shoulder and is currently expected to miss "two to three" weeks as he recuperates. This throws a major monkey wrench into the passing game since he has been the primary receiver for the last month. He has not missed a game since 1999. Jason Dunn will step up into the starting role but he's been little more than a blocking tight end during his time in Kansas City. Kris Wilson is another option though he has moved to fullback since Ronnie Cruz was lost for the season last month. This will be all new for the Chiefs and a huge impact on the passing game beyond his mere production.

Gonzalez had games of 44 and 70 yards against the Raiders last year and never scored.

Match Against the Defense: With the passing game losing Gonzalez and not wanting to tip their hand for the Denver game,. expect a big game here from Johnson and only minimal passing. The Raiders have a decent pass defense and yet are soft against the run. No need to make this one any more complicated than it needs to be.

Expect two scores from Johnson that could go higher.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 23 3 28 3 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 4 21 5 11 28 31