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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 15, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
CIN at NO PIT at CLE     updated

Prediction: WAS 17, TB 14

Wow. Is this going to be an ugly game or what? The Skins have already thrown in the towel on the season and are starting Jason Campbell at quarterback while the Bucs gave up last week but have no other quarterback to turn to. Portis is out and Cadillac is in but that doesn't mean Williams will have all that much better game than Portis. The stands should be filled with naughty children receiving a tough love punishment from their parents - "I told you, next time you mess up we are going to watch the Bucs and Skins play, mister, so stop your crying!"

The Buccaneers barely clipped the Redskins last year, winning 36-35 in Tampa Bay.

Update: Moss remains questionable with his hamstring strain and didn't participate in practice on Wednesday or Thursday. The expectation at this point is that he will end up playing as he did last week but he only had three catches for 17 yards and was clearly limited. I am lowering his numbers and of course he could end up deactivated potentially. He is not a safe start this week and remains sore and no where near 100% healthy.

I am shifting his numbers and score to Brandon Lloyd but with a completely unseen new quaterback in Jason Campbell, any projection is highly speculative.

Washington Redskins (3-6)
1 16-19 MIN 10 3-27 @PHI
2 10-27 @DAL 11 --- @TB
3 31-15 @HOU 12 --- CAR
4 36-30 JAX 13 --- ATL
5 3-19 @NYG 14 --- PHI
6 25-22 TEN 15 --- @NO
7 22-36 @IND 16 --- @STL
8 Open Bye 17 --- NYG
9 22-19 DAL - MON SAT
WAS at TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 30 0 170,1
RB Ladell Betts 60,1 10 0
TE Chris Cooley 0 50 0
WR Santana Moss 0 30 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 0 50,1 0
WR Antwaan Randle El 0 20 0
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Yeah, so much for that thrilling win over the Cowboys. The Skins are benching Brunell and searching for the replacement for Portis (again) while the defense has spent most of the year trying to keep opponents from scoring more than 20 points in a game. A new start at quarterback probably will help and the Bucs are on a short week but the Skins are only 1-4 on the road and that was back with "all hands on deck".

Quarterback: After sitting on the bench wondering what the NFL is like for the last 25 games, Jason Campbell has finally been given the starting job this week. While well practiced and versed in the scheme for the year and a half, Campbell is a big unknown because he has yet to throw even one pass in the NFL. Let alone become the starter. Often new quarterbacks succeed early if only because there is no way to prepare to face them, but Campbell has the unfortunate luck to get his call when Portis is out for several weeks. Campbell was a star at Auburn with eye-popping stats but how that translates into the NFL remains to be seen. If nothing else, he should add far more mobility to the position than Mark Brunell had.

Brunell threw for 226 yards and two scores in Tampa Bay last year.

Running Backs: Clinton Portis fractured his right finger and will miss up to four weeks. That leaves Ladell Betts as the starter and he comes off a decent effort of 83 yards on 20 carries last week in Philadelphia after Portis was injured. Betts also had the best game by any Redskins runner this year when he ran for 124 yards on just 16 carries against the Texans. His two good games this year both came on the road.

Portis gained 144 yards and one score against the Buccaneers last year.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss will likely approve of the change to Campbell if only because he's not done much this year since week three. Still hampered by a sore hamstring last week, he only had 17 yards on three catches so any change in quarterback is bound to be no worse than what this season has already served up. In particular, Moss could benefit from the extra time that Campbell's legs could buy him on pass plays and allow Moss to get farther down the field or work to get open. There's a chance that both Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El could actually have fantasy value with a new quarterback because like Moss, they have no where to go but up this year.

Santana Moss had four catches for 79 yards in Tampa Bay last season.

Tight Ends: Chris Cooley was enjoying a revival of sorts with three scores over the last four games so a change could impact him negatively. But a big target over the middle is often a new quarterback's best friend, so there's no reason yet to assume Cooley will decline.

Chris Cooley turned in six catches for 66 yards against the Bucs last year.

Match Against the Defense: The Tampa Bay rush defense has been pretty good at home with Westbrook's 101 yards the best by any opposing runner. Only two teams have managed to get a runner to score a rushing touchdown there though the Eagles had two scores passed to backs. Ladell Betts is an adequate back and there are plenty of reasons to run to protect the new quarterback. Expect a moderate to good game here for Betts.

Whatever Campbell does will be all new since he has never thrown a pass in the NFL so far. The Bucs have always allowed at least one touchdown and three of the last four opponents have scored two or more times against them. With nothing to go on really, look for one passing score and moderate yardage. Campbell has a nice match-up here but he is a complete unknown. Moss has the best match-up in this game while Lloyd goes against Ronde Barber.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 30 12 25 14 27 31
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 28 23 18 13 14 19


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-7)
1 0-27 BAL 10 10-24 @CAR
2 3-14 @ATL 11 --- WAS
3 24-26 CAR 12 --- @DAL
4 Open Bye 13 --- @PIT
5 21-24 @NO 14 --- ATL
6 14-13 CIN 15 --- @CHI
7 23-21 PHI 16 --- @CLE
8 3-17 @NYG 17 --- SEA
9 14-31 NO - MON THU
TBB vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Bruce Gradkowski 0 0 190,2
RB Cadillac Williams 60 20 0
TE Alex Smith 0 20 0
WR Joey Galloway 0 80,1 0
WR Michael Clayton 0 40,1 0
WR Ike Hilliard 0 20 0
PK Matt Bryant 0 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Swirling, swirling, swirling down the drain. The Buccaneers have lost their last three games by 14 or more points which makes comebacks a bit tough to mount (and evidently impossible with Gradkowski there). Carnell Williams cannot outrun the average hotdog vendor and the entire offense seems predicated on Gradkowski either throwing long incompletions near Galloway or just getting smashed by the defensive rush. But this is the same team that somehow beat the visiting Bengals. Problem here is that the Bucs have a short week to prepare and face completely unknown Jason Campbell.

Quarterback: The rookie Bruce Gradkowski comes off the Panther game with just one score but that makes two straight games with a touchdown - a change from the two scoreless efforts previous. Since his start in week five, Gradkowski has never had more than 185 passing yards in a game and he has began to lose the ball at least once each week. His two interceptions against Carolina were his first in four games though he has a problem getting blasted and losing a fumble in most games.

The Buccaneers threw for 279 yards and three scores against the Redskins last year.

Running Backs: The offensive rookie of the year from 2005 has become little more than fantasy depth now with only one touchdown on the season and only one effort that exceeded 100 rushing yards this year. Carnell Williams only managed 44 yards on 15 carries against the Panthers and that was actually his best game in three weeks. The rushing game here has stalled and is in jeopardy of disappearing all together. Mike Alstott is even starting to get a couple of carries again but he's turning in even worse yardage than Williams.

Williams gained only 20 yards on 10 carries against the Skins in 2005.

Wide Receivers: Joey Galloway remains the lone Bucs receiver with any fantasy significance and he has actually turned in two nice efforts recently - 97 yards and two scores against the Saints and then 87 yards in Carolina last Monday. Ike Hilliard had his first touchdown of the season in Carolina but usually ends with just one catch each week. The poor passing effort here has limited all but Galloway. There have only been six touchdowns thrown to a wideout this year and Galloway has four of them.

Galloway had seven receptions for 131 yards and one score against the Skins last year.

Tight Ends: Alex Smith remains marginally used each week with two or three catches but rarely any yardage of any note.

Match Against the Defense: Fortunately Carnell Williams got into the Hall of Fame from his big three game start last year because if this year was a consideration, he'd need a job in the snack shop just to be allowed inside the building. The Redskins rushing defense is about average even though they have only allowed three rushing scores all season. Look for moderate yardage in this game which is actually a step up for Williams.

Gradkowski faces a secondary that always allows a score which is good since he doesn't always throw one every week. The secondary is weak against wideouts and that spells success for Galloway if Gradkowski can remain standing long enough. Expect just moderate yardage here but the chance for two passing scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 26 25 21 21 32 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 26 15 32 22 32 2