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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 22, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
  CIN at CLE NYG at TEN   Updated

Prediction: CAR 20, WAS 13

The Panthers come off a dominating shutout of the Rams and now are tied with the Saints for the NFC South lead. The Skins have lost Portis, dumped Brunell and their biggest hope now is that the Eagles without McNabb can eventually join them in the cellar of the NFC East. The Skins are 2-2 at home and the Panthers are 2-2 on the road but these teams appear to be headed in two different directions.

Update: DeShaun Foster has not practiced due to his hyperextended elbow and remains questionable. He will be re-evaluated up until game time but it appears most likely that Williams will play the most if not exclusively so I am not changing the projections. The Panthers were pretty pleased with what he did against the Rams last week.

Santana Moss is still questionable with his hamstring strain and has not been able to fully practice yet but they may try to increase his workload today and Saturday if he can take it. But I am not adding him into the projections either since he won't likely be 100% in the very best case. He could end up inactive this week just as easily.

Carolina Panthers (6-4)
1 6-20 ATL 10 24-10 TB
2 13-16 @MIN 11 15-0 STL
3 26-24 @TB 12 --- @WAS
4 21-18 NO 13 --- @PHI
5 20-12 CLE 14 --- NYG
6 23-21 @BAL 15 --- PIT
7 14-17 @CIN 16 --- @ATL
8 14-35 DAL 17 --- @NO
9 Open Bye - - MON
CAR at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Delhomme 0 0 240,2
RB DeAngelo Williams 100 30 0
TE Kris Mangum 0 10 0
WR Steve Smith 0 120,2 0
WR Keyshawn Johnson 0 50 0
PK John Kasay 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Nothing like a shutout to make you feel good about your defense. Other than the one "oops" against the Cowboys, this defense has been consistently good at limiting points. The offense may only be Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams, but that should be good enough again this week. There's no reason to look ahead either now that the scheduled games against the Eagles and Giants suddenly do not seem nearly so daunting.

Quarterback: Jake Delhomme continues on his rather average season with just 11 scores on the year but at least his best games have come on the road. His best efforts so far were in those last two trips away from Carolina when he had two scores and nice yardage against the Ravens and Bengals. But over half the time Delhomme ends up with less than 200 passing yards. Those road trips have proven to be close fought matches so far, so Delhomme has never had the luxury of just handing the ball off to Foster or Williams.

Running Backs: Deshaun Foster suffered a hyperextended elbow in the second quarter last week and did not return to the game. Since HC John Fox was less than forthcoming about the severity of the injury (which looked a bit gruesome as his elbow bent the wrong way), I expect that Foster sits this week and DeAngelo Williams gets the starting job for now. It is week 12 already and high time for Foster to get his annual injury.

WIlliams had his first heavy-load game of the year and responded well against the Rams. He gained 114 yards on just 20 carries and added 24 yards on two catches. This scenario was precisely why the Panthers drafted Williams.

Wide Receivers: No matter how few passing yards there are, it is a safe bet that Steve Smith will get most of them. He had 90 yards and a score last week for a total of five touchdowns on the season. That was also his fourth 90+ yard game in the last five weeks. Smith has only played in three road games this year and never ended with less than 112 yards in any.

Keyshawn Johnson hovers around 50 yards almost every game but has only scored once in the last five weeks. Keary Colbert and Drew Carter have not even had a catch since week seven - just Smith and Johnson are used.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

Match Against the Defense: DeAngelo Williams goes against a defense that has only allowed three runners to rush in a score this year but several had turned in 100+ yard games. Expect a good showing here by the rookie since the WAS offense is no longer as potent and field position should favor the Panthers. Chances are better that he will not score but this is a new Skins team now and that should benefit Williams.

Delhomme goes against a secondary that has always allowed at least one score and even up to four to opponents this year. Since Jake typically does better on the road, look for a very nice game here from him with two scores and healthy yardage. The Skins are #31 against wideouts so flip a coin to see if Steve Smith scores once or twice.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 23 20 10 30 13 20
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 24 14 31 23 32 2


Washington Redskins (3-7)
1 16-19 MIN 10 3-27 @PHI
2 10-27 @DAL 11 17-20 @TB
3 31-15 @HOU 12 --- CAR
4 36-30 JAX 13 --- ATL
5 3-19 @NYG 14 --- PHI
6 25-22 TEN 15 --- @NO
7 22-36 @IND 16 --- @STL
8 Open Bye 17 --- NYG
9 22-19 DAL - MON SAT
WAS vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 0 0 210,1
RB Ladell Betts 40 30 0
RB T.J. Duckett 40 0 0
TE Chris Cooley 0 70,1 0
WR James Thrash 0 40 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 0 40 0
WR Antwaan Randle El 0 20 0
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: Sure, the Skins lost to the lowly Saints but the debut of Jason Campbell went reasonably well and it finally reversed their trend of winning the close ones or losing by a big margin. Now they can lose the close ones too. The Skins finally reach a three game stretch of home games and a chance for Campbell to start his career in more hospitable surroundings.

Quarterback: So far one game under his belt and Jason Campbell has two touchdowns and no interceptions. He completed 19 of 34 passes for 196 yards and that was without Santana Moss in the game. As with all new quarterbacks, he now has a bit of game film on him for defenses to study and his real development starts this week.

Running Backs: The loss of Clinton Portis is evidently going to be an issue. Ladell Betts took the start last week in Tampa Bay and only managed to gain 18 yards on seven carries though he added 48 on five catches. Betts had one good game back in week three in Houston but last week casts doubts on the rest of the year. T.J. Duckett had five carries for 26 yards and should continue to figure in as well. If the Skins ever reach the goal line, Duckett is a natural choice to pound it over. Until the backfield sorts itself out, and it may never, I am projecting for Duckett and Betts to share the load.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss was inactive last week with his hamstring strain after expecting to play earlier in the week. Moss pulled himself from the start and could do that again this week. Until he practices and appears healthy, I will exclude him from the projections. Updates if warranted.

The new starter Campbell did not have much success throwing to wideouts last week anyway. James Thrash led the crew with just four catches for 46 yards and Brandon Lloyd ended with only 24 yards on two catches. Antwaan Randle El - one reception for 14 yards. Changing to a new quarterback has not helped this unit that had no where to go but up - except to remain insignificant.

Tight Ends: Where the passes did end up with Campbell was primarily with Betts and Chris Cooley who had five receptions for 58 yards and one touchdown. The second passing score went to tight end Todd Yoder for his only catch on the season.

Match Against the Defense: Back at home will help, but the poor rushing game meets a pretty good defense that should limit both Betts and Duckett to minimal yardage and no scores.

Campbell faces an average pass defense but one that has held most teams to just one passing score and just moderate passing yardage. Now there is a bit of film on Campbell, so expect just one passing score here that will heavily favor Cooley against the #30 defense against tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 29 11 26 12 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 14 9 5 30 9 6