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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 22, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
  CIN at CLE NYG at TEN   Updated

Prediction: GB 16, SEA 27

The Packers hit the road this week where they are 3-2 even though their home games have only resulted in a 1-4 record. Coming off a 35-0 shutout is a great reason to take a trip out west. The Seahawks come off their own loss, a surprise in San Francisco that drops them to 6-4 and leaves them only one game ahead of - 'gulp' - the 49ers. But Seattle is 4-1 at home this year and should see their first game with both Alexander and Hasselbeck since week three.

The Packers won 23-17 when the Seahawks came to Green Bay in week 17 last year. Right before the playoffs, the Seahawks were resting their players.

Update: Hasselbeck returned to practice with the first team on Thursday and is expected to play barring any setbacks. Shaun Alexander is no longer on any practice report and should take a full load this week. Also Bobby Engram could return on Monday after his lengthy absence due to illness but I am not adding him back in until it is obvious that he can deal with his thyroid condition and that the Seahawks will use him.

I am not changing the projections for Brett Favre either though he is still not completely sure to play or be 100%. Favre will start just to keep his streak of 251 games alive but how much and how well he will play beyond that is less certain. He has a bruised right elbow with some damage to his ulnar nerve. The Packers hope to have a better idea on Friday if he can practice and the plan is to have him go through a full practice on Saturday. His final status may not be completely known up until gametime though he seems a lock to at least start. Unfortunately this is a Monday game and both quarterbacks have at least minor concerns this week. Realize the risk before you start either this week.

Green Bay Packers (4-6)
1 0-26 CHI 10 23-17 @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 0-35 NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 --- @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 10-24 @BUF - MON THU
GBP at SEA (MON) Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,1
RB Ahman Green 60 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 10 0
WR Donald Driver 0 100,1 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 20 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 60 0
PK Dave Rayner 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Packers had a scare last week when Brett Favre injured his elbow and Aaron Rodgers finally had significant play after two seasons in the NFL. Of course that all meant that Rodgers broke a bone in his foot and was placed on injured reserve while Favre is expected back this week. Brett has started over 250 straight games. Rodgers lasted about 35 minutes - not a positive sign for the future.

Quarterback: Brett Favre injured his throwing arm last week with a blow to the ulnar nerve but he has already had most strength return to his hand and arm. He won't likely practice until Friday but is expected to play on Monday at this point.

Favre threw for 259 yards and one score against the Seahawks last year.

Running Backs: Ahman Green was on a nice streak with three games over 100 yards and three touchdowns scored but he's only turned in 55 and 28 yards in the last two games while turning in no receiving yardage. Green has faced decent defenses in MIN and NE but his drop is sharper than expected. William Henderson, Vernand Morency and Noah Henderson figure it but mostly as receivers.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver had a monster 191 yard game against the Vikings but only came up with 42 last week with Favre sidelined. Prior to that game, Driver had scored in three of the previous four games. Greg Jennings has been back for three weeks but has actually declined each game. He's just not shown the same speed and hands since his injury. Ruvell Martin plays but only because they need a warm body and he doesn't get in the way when Driver makes catches.

Driver ended 2005 with six catches for 118 yards against the Seahawks.

Tight Ends: David Martin didn't play in the second half Sunday after suffering a rib injury. The X-rays taken during the game were negative but I am not projecting for him until word he will be practicing and playing. It does not matter much in a fantasy sense, the Packers tight ends have been of little value other than two weeks by Martin about a month ago.

Match Against the Defense: The Seahawks have only allowed two rushing touchdowns by running backs in Seattle and the Packer rush game has been dormant for a couple of weeks. With Hasselbeck and Alexander back, expect the Seattle defense to enjoy better field position and for Green to turn in just a moderate game at best.

Favre goes against a secondary that can be lit up by the right team but the Packers are limited to just Donald Driver lately. Expect one passing score here to Driver but there could be two if Favre is truly 100% and there's enough trash time in the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 14 12 14 17 17 11
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 16 16 22 10 17 29


Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
1 9-6 @DET 10 24-22 STL
2 21-10 ARZ 11 14-20 @SF
3 42-30 NYG 12 --- GB
4 6-37 @CHI 13 --- @DEN
5 Open Bye 14 --- @ARZ
6 30-28 @STL 15 --- SF
7 13-31 MIN 16 --- SD
8 28-35 @KC 17 --- @TB
9 16-0 OAK - MON THU
SEA vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 0 0 250,2
RB Shaun Alexander 70,1 10 0
TE Jerramy Stevens 0 20 0
WR Darrell Jackson 0 110,1 0
WR Deion Branch 0 80,1 0
WR Nate Burleson 0 20 0
PK Josh Brown 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: All the excitement of Shaun Alexander returning last week left when the 49ers took the win and held Alexander to just 37 yards on 17 carries. With a long week to prepare and shake off rust, Alexander is bound to be improved this week and even should enjoy getting Hasselbeck back after his lengthy recovery. Seattle was 4-1 before the bottom dropped out of the offense thanks to injuries and yet they still lead the NFC West with just a 6-4 record.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck hasn't played since week seven but is on track to return for the Monday night game. It should take a little time to get back into the flow after his four game absence and he was inconsistent before the injury. Hasselbeck has ten touchdowns over his six games played but eight game came in only two match-ups. He was just starting to hit his groove with Jackson and Branch when he left.

Running Backs: Shaun Alexander only had 37 yards on 17 carries in San Francisco last week and he still has a long way to go to recapture any of his 2005 magic. Even prior to the injury in week three, Alexander had only gained 187 yards on 65 carries - an average of just 2.9 yards per carry. With Alexander rusty and his offensive line weaker than last year, his monster efforts of the past may not show up anytime soon as it is.

Alexander ran for 73 yards and one score in Green Bay last year to secure the touchdown record but then left the game.

Wide Receivers: While Seneca Wallace has done an admirable job in relief of Hasselbeck this past month, the wideouts must be pleased with the chance that the starting quarterback is back. In Hasselbeck's final two games, he had connected with Deion Branch for 76 and 60 yards with two touchdowns and had Darrell Jackson turn in efforts of 94 and 136 yards with scores in both games. D.J. Hackett has managed a few nice efforts along the way but Hasselbeck's return should make this unit more productive for both starting wideouts.

Tight Ends: The same week that Jerramy Stevens started playing again was the one that Hasselbeck was injured. While Stevens was a factor last year, he'll be starting over with Hasselbeck and there are more options in the passing game than there were last year.

Match Against the Defense: This game is harder to forecast with the "new" dynamics of Hasselbeck and Alexander mixed back in. The Packers rushing defense is better than the ranking suggests - no runner has topped 100 rushing yards against them this year. With Alexander easing back into the flow, expect good but not great yardage here and a good chance he will turn in his third touchdown this year ( a bit off his 2005 pace).

The best news is that Hasselbeck appears ready to play just in time to greet one of the worst secondaries in the league. Expect at least two scores here and decent yardage but his first game back could have a bit of rust on it. Nothing the Packers secondary should not help oil though.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 10 31 5 27 23 10
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 22 30 14 26 12