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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 22, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
  CIN at CLE NYG at TEN   Updated

Prediction: HOU 17, NYJ 20

As a perfect sign of their season, the Texans were able to sweep the Jaguars with an upset in Jacksonville and then return home to allow the McGahee-less Bills to beat them using an obscene statistical game for Lee Evans. The Jets managed to take down their nemesis of the Patriots in New England and then turned around to get shut out by the Bears last week. Houston is 0-4 in non-Jacksonville road games and the Jets are just 2-3 at home.

Update: Andre Johnson is only listed as probable with a thigh strain but there is a concern that he may not play this week. He has not practiced fully on Wednesday or Thursday and won't be 100% healthy even if he does play. I am lowering his projections but keep an eye on this if you really need him this week.

Cedric Houston is listed as questionable and he has been held out of some practice sessions but is expected to play as he did last week. It's just the same issue as he had last week.

Houston Texans (3-7)
1 10-24 PHI 10 13-10 @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 21-24 BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 --- @NYJ
4 17-15 MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 6-34 @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 27-7 JAX 16 --- IND
8 22-28 @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 10-14 @NYG - - -
HOU at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 30 0 200,1
RB Wali Lundy 60,1 20 0
RB Samkon Gado 60 20 0
TE Owen Daniels 0 30,1 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 50 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 10 0
PK Kris Brown 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Texans are a bad road team though several games were close because their opponent played down to their level but that won't be the case for the Jets who need every win they can get to vie for a wildcard bid. Unless the Texans can somehow cure their road woes immediately, this is just another lost season. Guess what - just another lost season.

Quarterback: David Carr has been on an impressive streak, now notching four straight games without a passing score even though Sage Rosenfels managed to throw three in his one partial game as the quarterback. His only positive of late is that he has started running the ball again and scored in week nine with around 30 yards in each of the last three games. Unfortunately he is a quarterback who usually struggles to top 200 yards in a game and apparently cannot remember what a touchdown looks like.

Running Backs: That wily veteran of the Denver backfield scheme is at it again. Gary Kubiak made Wali Lundy the starter once again and after two great efforts against the Jaguars and Tennessee, Lundy struggled a bit on the road against the Giants so naturally Kubiak immediately started blending he and Samkon Gado each week. Lundy has scored in each of the last two games but only had eight carries for 61 yards last week against the Bills while Gado ran 10 times for 69 yards and one score. Evidently finding the right mix for Kubiak means changing roles at the first hint of any down game regardless of venue.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson bruised his thigh against the Bills but the injury isn't expected to keep him out this week. After starting the year on such a high note, Johnson has not scored in three games now and turns in normal numbers for just another possession receiver instead of one of the most talented wideouts in the game. Eric Moulds, who should be filling that role, just plods along each week with usually only 30 yards or so and he has not scored since week one. Bet he just loved seeing Evans last week. Moulds had one of his better efforts of the season when he faced his former team but even that was only five catches for 68 yards.

Tight Ends: That Owen Daniels free agent pick you were so happy with just had one catch for ten yards. He's usually better but not much lately.

Match Against the Defense: Now here is a reason to dislike Kubiak. The backfield for the Texans currently is a sharing scenario and yet this week they face the worst team against the run. If Lundy - or even Gado - could take the full load, a big game would be almost a lock. But split between then means moderate yardage for both. They should combine for around 120 rushing yards - everyone does - and score one touchdown. I will credit it to Lundy but it could be Gado just as easily.

Carr faces a big decision this week. Either he goes ahead and breaks his scoring drought or he becomes the first quarterback in nine games to not score on the Jets secondary. I'll project one score for him but only because I am an optimist - his recent past doesn't suggest that is a lock by any means. The score is most likely to end up with Johnson by sheer volume of his passes.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 11 28 22 11 29 31
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 18 32 21 21 10 7


New York Jets (5-5)
1 23-16 @TEN 10 17-14 @NE
2 17-24 NE 11 0-10 CHI
3 28-20 @BUF 12 --- HOU
4 28-31 IND 13 --- @GB
5 0-41 @JAX 14 --- BUF
6 20-17 MIA 15 --- @MIN
7 31-24 DET 16 --- @MIA
8 13-20 @CLE 17 --- OAK
9 Open Bye - - MON
NYJ vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 190,1
RB Kevan Barlow 30 0 0
RB Leon Washington 40 20 0
RB Cedric Houston 60,1 10 0
TE Chris Baker 0 10 0
WR Laveranues Coles 0 70 0
WR Tim Dwight 0 20 0
WR Jerricho Cotchery 0 60,1 0
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jets come off their second shutout of the season and yet at 5-5 they are not theoretically out of any playoff race yet. Given their remaining schedule, it is entirely feasible that the team ends at least 8-8. This week is the easiest game left to play and after that spanking by the Bears, the jets need to get back on track.

Quarterback: While Chad Pennington had a hot start to the season, he's once again been Chad the Lesser since week two and has just ten touchdowns on the year against 11 interceptions. he only has two scores over the last four weeks and threw six interceptions in that time. He has also gone six weeks now without a game over 175 yards. The passing offense has just progressively gotten worse over the course of the season.

Running Backs: In case you needed yet another Jets running back for your roster, now Cedric Houston has returned from his knee sprain and he led all runners with 11 carries for 50 yards last week, while Kevan Barlow had just four totes for two yards and Leon Washington gained 22 yards on 13 carries. Much as I would love to project for "NYJ RB et al", I am honor bound to split them out though by now it means little more than raw speculation. Houston was the best last week so he should get more work this week, but Barlow and Washington also are figuring in.

Wide Receivers: Laveranues Coles continues to get around a dozen passes each week but that usually translates into just 30 or 50 yards in most weeks and he has not scored since week six. Jerricho Cotchery had a nice effort in New England with six catches for 70 yards and a score but he only managed 25 yards last week. In fairness, the Jets have faced several good defenses lately but in reality, Pennington and these wideouts have been only marginally effective for the last eight games.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

Match Against the Defense: The Texans have a weak rushing defense that has allowed ten different runners to score this year but with the trio in New York, who that will be is a coin flip. I will credit Houston with one rushing score but it could be Barlow just as easy. There should be at least good rushing yardage in this game, it'll just likely get split out among two or three runners.

Pennington faces a secondary that has allowed every non-Jaguar opponent to throw for at least one score and three different opponents did not stop until they had three touchdowns. Pennington should toss one score in this game and he could do two but recent history says he'll be dizzy with success after just one. That strongly favors Cotchery with that match-up that Evans went nuclear with last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 21 16 28 31 19
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 26 24 19 3 11 19