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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 22, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
  CIN at CLE NYG at TEN   Updated

Prediction: JAX 24, BUF 10

The Jaguars come off a dominating win over the Giants but encounter one small problem in this game - they are only 1-3 on the road this year. The Bills just beat the Texans that own the Jaguars but they are only 2-2 at home. But Willis McGahee is still out and there is a good chance that the Jaguars brain trust has spent some time thinking about Lee Evans this week.

Update: Ernest Wilford is questionable to play because of a sore ankle and while he was held out on Wednesday, he return to practice on Thursday and is likely to play. I am slightly lowering his numbers though he could be fine. I am giving slightly higher numbers to Matt Jones who is healthy and the Jags want to involve him more anyway. Wilford has had a nice chemistry with Garrard, but the ankle sprain is a slight concern.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
1 24-17 DAL 10 10-13 HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 26-10 NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 --- @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 --- @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 --- IND
6 Open Bye 15 --- @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 --- NE
8 13-6 @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 37-7 TEN - - MON
JAX at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 0 0 190,1
RB Fred Taylor 90,1 20 0
RB Maurice Drew 60,1 40 0
TE George Wrighster 0 20 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 10 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 50 0
WR Matt Jones 0 50,1 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars could be a top team if they only played at home and the Texans were shifted to another division. But Jacksonville holds their own wildcard destiny with four road games left to play and only two home stands - against NE and IND. That won't make it any easier but this is the week for the Jaguars to show that they can play outside of their own stadium.

Quarterback: Byron Leftwich got a second opinion and was sent for surgery on his left ankle. He'll miss this week if not all the rest this year - the Jaguars are not saying quite yet. David Garrard has had four starts so far and only managed to score in one of them - the home match-up against the Titans. He has been improving in yardage every week though thanks to playing a string of three home games but now hits the road where he was barely used this year.

Running Backs: The two-pronged attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew-Jones continues to thrive even if it means each runner has only managed one game over 100 rushing yards this year. Taylor remains more used as the runner and Drew-Jones has been catching more but either will be used at the goal line - it just depends on who happens to be on the field when they get there. Taylor has been good for at least 80 yards in almost every game this year while Drew-Jones has seven scores to only four for Taylor.

Wide Receivers: Matt Jones has been plagued with drops this year but cured that last week when he caught his only pass for a 49-yard gain. Ernest Willford enjoyed his best game of the year when he had five catches for 72 yards against the Giants and he has regained favor with Garrard playing. Reggie Williams started the season strong with Leftwich but Garrard barely notices him. Williams has never had more than one catch for inconsequential yardage since Garrard became the starter.

Tight Ends: George Wrighster comes off his best (and most uncharacteristic) game of the year when he snared four passes for 54 yards last Sunday. Wrighster had been relegated to just one catch in most games with Garrard.

Match Against the Defense: Garrard will likely have a low game here because everyone just runs on the Bills who rank among the worst against running backs. Look for Taylor and Drew-Jones to both likely score and share a total game of good rushing yardage.

The Bills pass defense rarely gives up much yardage (thanks to the poor rushing defense) but nine different teams have thrown at least one score against them this year. Look for no more than one passing score by Garrard and he could be blanked yet again. If any wideout does score, Wilford gets the match-up most exploit.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 20 2 25 23 6 24
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 11 31 24 12 7 23


Buffalo Bills (4-6)
1 17-19 @NE 10 16-17 @IND
2 16-6 @MIA 11 24-21 @HOU
3 20-28 NYJ 12 --- JAX
4 17-12 MIN 13 --- SD
5 7-40 @CHI 14 --- @NYJ
6 17-20 @DET 15 --- MIA
7 6-28 NE 16 --- TEN
8 Open Bye 17 --- @BAL
9 24-10 GB - - -
BUF vs JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman 0 0 160,1
RB Anthony Thomas 60 10 0
TE Robert Royal 0 10 0
WR Peerless Price 0 30 0
WR Lee Evans 0 70,1 0
WR Josh Reed 0 30 0
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bills come off a big win in Houston that featured a record game by Lee Evans and even ended with a winning score thrown to Peerless Price. But this team also has struggled when facing top defenses and has yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. It was fun while it lasted but Willis McGahee is still out and Lee Evans will be watched very closely - and never from behind him if they scheme correctly.

Quarterback: Nothing like starting the game out with a pair of 83-yard touchdown passes to jack up the stats. J.P. Losman threw for 340 yards and three scores last Sunday when he had never had more than 193 yards for the last month. He had only thrown for one score over the three previous games. It was nice to see for Lee Evans owners, but nothing more than a magic game not likely to be repeated.

Running Backs: Willis McGahee is likely to miss this week as well thanks to his broken ribs and last week Anthony Thomas only gained 56 yards on 19 carries against the Texans. Thomas had two nice efforts over the Packers and Colts but once opponents see him coming, he's not nearly as effective. Throw in a top defense this week and he'll be making no one forget about McGahee.

Wide Receivers: Let's see, two touchdown catches for 83 yards and Lee Evans ended with a total of 265 yards on 11 catches - that's not a bad day. It's almost as much as Evans had gained over the prior five games combined. And he just doubled his season touchdown total in one game. This passing offense is predicated on connecting deep with Evans and when it works, it is deadly. It has only worked a few times this year and nothing even close to rival what he just did in one game.

Peerless Price also scored against the Texans and while he had the eventual game winner, he ended with just two receptions for 24 yards which is about his average. This unit has little fantasy value unless you can catch Evans on those rare big days.

Tight Ends: One catch if he is lucky.

Match Against the Defense: This week should be a problem. The Bills were already limited to running McGahee and throwing to Evans but now it's just Evans who is playing. And no one will dismiss his skill set after last week. The Jaguars have only allowed four rushing scores this year to running backs most struggle to crest 60 yards in a game as will Thomas who will not score.

Losman faces a secondary that has only averaged allowing less than one touchdown per opponent but they can be beaten by speed players like Evans (and Santana Moss). Expect Losman to toss one passing score but even that may be optimistic. That has to favor Evans because no other receiver gets enough passes to do much.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 27 29 17 32 22 13
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 7 5 3 15 1 5