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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 29, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
ATL at WAS MIN at CHI   TB at PIT Updated

Prediction: ATL 20, WAS 17

The Falcons are reeling from a four game losing streak and just one more loss not only dooms any hint of the playoffs, it could send the coaches and managers into some soul-searching. The Redskins finally ended their own four game losing streak when they surprised the Panthers last week. While this game could go either way, the only near lock is that there will not be many points scored.

Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
1 20-6 @CAR 10 13-17 CLE
2 14-3 TB 11 10-24 @BAL
3 3-23 @NO 12 13-31 NO
4 32-10 ARZ 13 --- @WAS
5 Open Bye 14 --- @TB
6 14-27 NYG 15 --- DAL
7 41-38 PIT 16 --- CAR
8 29-27 @CIN 17 --- @PHI
9 14-30 @DET - MON SAT
ATL at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 80,1 0 140,1
RB Warrick Dunn 50 10 0
RB Jerious Norwood 30 10 0
TE Alge Crumpler 0 50 0
WR Ashley Lelie 0 20 0
WR Michael Jenkins 0 40,1 0
WR Roddy White 0 10 0
PK Morten Andersen 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Four games lost. Michael Vick flipping off fans in the Georgia Dome. Never scoring more than 14 points for the last month. Not exactly good times for the Falcons who have fallen from being a division leader to being in jeopardy of missing the playoffs and undergoing changes next year that usually accompany such a catastrophic collapse. The Falcons offense has now declined until all that remains is Michael Vick - and he is running and not throwing.

Quarterback: Michael Vick currently has 870 rushing yards, leading all but ten running backs in the NFL. He ranks as the top fantasy quarterback currently in many fantasy leagues even though his 1770 passing yards ranks as worst among all quarterbacks that have played 11 games. Vick comes off his best rushing game of the year with 166 yards but his worst passing effort where he only completed 9 of 24 passes for 84 yards. Vick is great for a fantasy team, but as an NFL quarterback is undergoing an attack from all sides now since he cannot move the team any way other than by running. He is not helped by a set of receivers that drops as many as they catch, but some of that circles back to Vick and the way he throws the ball.

Running Backs: Warrick Dunn ran in his fourth touchdown of the season but only ended with a paltry 52 yards on 19 carries against the Saints. That sort of yardage is almost exactly what he has done in four of the last five weeks and either he has finally hit the age wall or the offensive line is in shambles. Since Vick can run, figure Dunn is playing more like he is done.

Wide Receivers: Not really. Michael Jenkins might catch a touchdown but no other wideout has this year and not once has any wideout topped 100 yards if they even reach 10 in a game.

Tight Ends: The passing game has been so bad that Alge Crumpler led all receivers last week because he caught one pass for 43 yards. If anything happens in the passing game it favors Crumpler, but that doesn't mean something has to happen with the pass.

Match Against the Defense: Strengthening the case for a low scoring game is that the Redskins rush defense has only allowed three rushing scores to opposing running backs this year - and only one in the last ten games. The yardage can be decent but Dunn seems stuck around 50 yards and he is on the road this week anyway.

The Skins always give up at least one passing score in every game so Vick should manage to connect with Jenkins this week but as always it appears his rushing ability will be key. Vick really needs to quiet the critics this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 2 17 32 8 13 20
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 23 15 31 22 32 2


Washington Redskins (4-7)
1 16-19 MIN 10 3-27 @PHI
2 10-27 @DAL 11 17-20 @TB
3 31-15 @HOU 12 17-13 CAR
4 36-30 JAX 13 --- ATL
5 3-19 @NYG 14 --- PHI
6 25-22 TEN 15 --- @NO
7 22-36 @IND 16 --- @STL
8 Open Bye 17 --- NYG
9 22-19 DAL - MON SAT
WAS vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 10 0 160,1
RB Ladell Betts 70,1 10 0
TE Chris Cooley 0 60,1 0
WR Santana Moss 0 40 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 0 20 0
WR Antwaan Randle El 0 20 0
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Skins already have their first win under Jason Campbell and apparently Ladell Betts is going to fill in for Portis well enough to get a win. Problem is that the Skins probably enjoyed an attempt by the Panthers to mail in a game instead of preparing enough and the Redskins are not quite bad enough yet to allow that to happen.

Quarterback: Two games in as a starter and Jason Campbell has thrown for two scores in each game with only one interception and he still has yet to play with a completely healthy Santana Moss. Campbell only has yardage of 196 and 118 yards so far but he's been solid in his first two starts - and one was a win.

Running Backs: While Ladell Betts was completely ineffective as a replacement for Portis in Tampa Bay, he ripped off 104 yards on 24 carries last week against the Panthers. T.J. Duckett is getting a half dozen carries each week in a supporting role but the Redskins ability to score on the ground hasn't happened yet without Portis there. Betts scored once back in week three but otherwise no Redskins runner has a touchdown this year.

Wide Receivers: Campbell hasn't yet done much with the wideouts though Antwaan Randle El scored in week 11 on his only catch. Santana Moss hasn't amounted to more than 17 yards in a game since Campbell took over though he is limited by a sore hamstring. Until Campbell can show that he can hit the deeper routes, the wideouts here have no real fantasy value.

Tight Ends: The lone player enjoying Campbell as a starter is Chris Cooley who has scored in both games and comes off a season high 89 yards last week thanks to a 66-yard score. So far Cooley has 147 yards on eight catches for two scores since Campbell took over - clearly the primary receiver for now.

Match Against the Defense: The Falcons rushing defense is better than most though it has been dinged deeply as of late. Atlanta is getting desperate so they will be preparing in full for this game. Expect that to depress the rushing numbers here to only moderate gains by Duckett and Betts and a good chance that Betts could score once.

Campbell faces a secondary that has been bad against wideouts but Campbell hasn't really used them this year. Look for Campbell to drop down to just one passing touchdown this week that likely favors Cooley the most given what Campbell has done so far. Cooley is due for a lower game but there's been no real success with the wideouts so far.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 31 16 26 9 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 19 10 29 15 23 13