fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    


Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 29, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
ATL at WAS MIN at CHI   TB at PIT Updated

Prediction: HOU 13, OAK 24

Now here is one delightful game to predict. The Texans who cannot beat anyone besides the Jaguars against the Raiders who almost defy description. The Raiders are slightly favored in this game by the standard three points to the home team but Janikowski is no lock to make it anyway. But Houston is still trying to win and is 2-2 on the road. It all adds up to a coin flip and then change the channel.

Update: While it remains to be seen if it means anything, Ron Dayne has practiced with the first team this week and could be active this week for the first time in four games. Sebastian Janikowski is questionable to play after missing the last two days of practice and may not play. The Raiders are working out Paul Edinger and Kurt Smith just in case that Janikowski's back spasms continue to be a problem on Sunday.

Houston Texans (3-8)
1 10-24 PHI 10 13-10 @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 21-24 BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 11-26 @NYJ
4 17-15 MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 6-34 @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 27-7 JAX 16 --- IND
8 22-28 @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 10-14 @NYG - - -
HOU at OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 220,1
RB Wali Lundy 50 40 0
RB Samkon Gado 40 10 0
TE Owen Daniels 0 30,1 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 70 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 10 0
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Texans are on a two game losing streak that is more like five when you remove the Jaguars from consideration. But the Texans have a shot at ending the season on a high note with match-ups against OAK, TEN and CLE left to play. But a road win? That has never been in the bag of tricks for the Texans

Quarterback: David Carr finally had a touchdown pass in a game when he threw for a season high 321 yards against the Jets last week. Carr had not thrown a score since week seven and his yardage Sunday was almost 100 yards better than any other game this year. Carr typically does not score and ends up at or below 200 yards in most weeks. He has run in two scores this year but his rushing yardage remains low each week.

The Texans lost their back-up quarterback when Sage Rosenfels fractured his right thumb and his place has been taken by Bradlee Van Pelt.

Running Backs: It did not matter that the Jets had a bad rush defense last week, the Texans were unable to mount anything on the ground and Wali Lundy ended with just 11 yards on eight carries while Samkon Gado had just four yards on three runs. But Lundy remained in on passing downs and caught a career best eight passes for 68 yards to salvage his fantasy value. Since HC Gary Kubiak decided to mix in healthy doses of Gado, neither back holds much fantasy value though Lundy remains the more likely to score.

Wide Receivers: Though Carr had a big yardage game last week, that did not translate too much to the wideouts. Lundy kept 68 yards and Andre Johnson had a healthy 10 catches for 98 yards and the lone Texans score while Eric Moulds turned in 79 yards on ten receptions as well. That was a season high for Moulds who still has not scored since week one. The wideouts had bigger numbers than usual but still did not manage to crest 100 yards individually. Johnson's last 100 yard game came back in week seven.

Tight Ends: Owen Daniels had a slightly better game than the previous week when he caught five passes for 34 yards. That's becoming about his norm each week and his earlier scoring spree has ended as of week eight.

Match Against the Defense: The Raiders rushing defense is underrated because of big games allowed to Tomlinson twice and Larry Johnson. It's a pretty rough division to expect to have the best rushing defense. Outside of those players, the Raiders have been very good against the run in Oakland and have not given up a rushing score in the last four home games. Look for Lundy and Gado to combine for only marginal yardage here and likely not score.

Carr finally turned in big yardage last week but he still has very few scores on the year. The Raiders have been giving up one or two touchdowns in most home games and what is most pertinent here is that the Raiders have intercepted 11 passes over the last four home games. Factor that into any start of Carr in a league with big negatives for interceptions. Look for only an average Carr game here of one score and around 220 passing yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 11 30 20 12 30 31
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 2 24 3 10 26 30


Oakland Raiders (2-9)
1 0-27 SD 10 13-17 DEN
2 6-28 @BAL 11 13-17 @KC
3 Open Bye 12 14-21 @SD
4 21-24 CLE 13 --- HOU
5 20-34 @SF 14 --- @CIN
6 3-13 @DEN 15 --- STL
7 22-9 ARZ 16 --- KC
8 20-13 PIT 17 --- @NYJ
9 0-16 @SEA - MON SAT
OAK vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Brook s 20 0 230,2
RB Justin Fargas 70 10 0
RB Zack Crockett 20,1 0 0
TE John Madsen 0 30 0
TE Randal Williams 0 40 0
WR Randy Moss 0 50,1 0
WR Alvis Whitted 0 30 0
WR Ronald Curry 0 60,1 0
PK Raider Kicker TBD 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Raiders still hold their lock on the lowest points scored of any NFL team but they only trail the Bucs by 10 points so there is hope that this week could be the magic bullet that could catapult them into 31st place. The Raiders are on a four game losing streak and this week should be as good as it will get for the rest of the year. If they cannot beat the road Texans, then it will almost certainly be a 2-14 ending to the season.

Quarterback: The return of Aaron Brooks hasn't meant more than one touchdown or 190 yards in a game but both his starts have come against solid defenses on the road. Back at home against a soft secondary like the Texans should allow the Raiders to have their biggest passing effort of the year and possibly even that elusive multiple passing scores in one game.

Running Backs: So far Justin Fargas hasn't amounted to more than 50 or so rushing yards as a starter but like Brooks, he took over right when the schedule became very tough on the road against the Chiefs and Chargers. This too will be one of the easiest rushing games of the year for whatever that is worth. The biggest surprise is that Fargas has made it two straight weeks as the starter without getting injured.

Zack Crockett still figures in each week with about half a dozen carries but they never amount to more than around 20 yards. Crockett would take goal line runs if the Raiders ever actually had any if Reshard Lee doesn't do like last week and come on for the one scoring run and then sit the rest of the game.

Wide Receivers: After being blanked in week 11, Randy Moss roared back to life with three catches for 26 yards last week. He still remains as the most common passing target with eight passes thrown to him last week but he's not doing much with them. Alvis Whitted and Ronald Curry have struggled to top 30 yards in most games though Curry turned in 85 yards against the Chiefs. Facing a weaker secondary this week should help this crew a lot.

Tight Ends: Brooks has used Randall Williams much more than Walter did. Over the last two games, Williams has caught seven passes for 70 yards but the big surprise last week was John Madsen who had three catches for 69 yards and the lone Raiders' touchdown. Prior to last week, Madsen had never caught more than one pass for 25 yards in any game. Madsen led all Oakland receivers last week because he caught a 57 yard pass for a score. I will add Madsen into the projections but one catch hardly makes Madsen a hot commodity yet.

Match Against the Defense: The Texans have allowed opponents at least one rushing score every week during road games if not more than one. Expect only moderate yardage from Fargas but there could be a rushing touchdown here that any of the backs could score. I'll credit Crockett as most likely but only marginally so.

Brooks faces a secondary that almost always allows at least one passing score and decent yardage to quarterbacks who bother. This will be the easiest match-up of the year for the Raiders so look for at least one passing score and possibly two with moderate to good yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 32 27 31 14 31 18
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 25 23 21 3 18 21