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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 29, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
ATL at WAS MIN at CHI   TB at PIT Updated

Prediction: KC 24, CLE 13

The Chiefs have won their last two games but both were at home and they are only 2-3 on the road this year. The Browns have lost their last two games and remarkably are only 1-5 at home. This is a must-win for the Chiefs as they all are now but the Browns are coming off a 30-0 shutout by the Bengals and will not be in a good mood for visitors.

Update: Tony Gonzalez is probable to play this week but did not attend all team drills on Wednesday and Thursday. Not to worry - he is expected to play this week and his sore shoulder is just getting a rest. Rueben Droughns is questionable to play and missed practice on Wednesday but returned on Thursday and will be playing. The Browns were rather displeased with the pathetic showing of the rushing game last week when Droughns, Harrison and Wright all played and Droughns may see an increased workload because the others did not show anything last week.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
1 10-23 CIN 10 10-13 @MIA
2 6-9 @DEN 11 17-13 OAK
3 Open Bye 12 19-10 DEN
4 41-0 SF 13 --- @CLE
5 23-20 @ARZ 14 --- BAL
6 7-45 @PIT 15 --- @SD
7 30-27 SD 16 --- @OAK
8 35-28 SEA 17 --- JAX
9 31-17 @STL - THU SAT
KCC at CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 180,1
RB Larry Johnson 120,2 30 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 40 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 30 0
WR Samie Parker 0 50,1 0
WR Dante Hall 0 20 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs are starting to get the offense back on track with Trent Green on board and Larry Johnson leading the way but unlike years past, HC Herman Edwards is more than happy to win games with less than 20 offensive points as long as they win the game. With Johnson leading the league in rushing yards, the games are likely to remain low scoring since the Chiefs defense has stepped up lately. But - can they continue that in road games?

Quarterback: Two weeks back and Trent Green has hardly set the world on fire. Then again, he had no need to throw against the Raiders and faced a top defense against the Broncos. Last week Green completed 13 of 22 for 161 yards and still no score on the season. What's even worse is that HC Herman Edwards is really happy with the wins even if they have come with less than 20 points scored the last couple of weeks. With Larry Johnson running well, there's no need to use Green and the passing game so far. That will likely be true at least this week as well.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson has scored in each of the last nine games and currently has 15 touchdowns on the season. Edwards says that he is not concerned with overworking Johnson yet despite the 65 carries over the last two weeks. Johnson may have disappeared from the passing game, but that has almost disappeared all together anyway. Johnson has gained at least 150 rushing yards in four of the last five games and leads the league with 1202 rushing yards. His current pace would place him just over 1700 rushing yards on the season.

Wide Receivers: In the two games since Green has returned, Samie Parker has been the primary wideout with games of 71 and 44 yards but that has to do with the match-ups that Eddie Kennison has been getting. Bottom line here - if Green is not going to throw for more than 150 yards in a game and never score, then none of the wideouts here have much fantasy value.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez was able to return last week after missing the Raiders match-up with a sore shoulder. He ended with just 35 yards on four catches against the Broncos though, no less affected by the minimal passing numbers than the wideouts.

Match Against the Defense: The Browns at home have only allowed three rushing touchdowns but they have not faced a top runner the likes of Johnson. Combined with road efforts where more tough match-ups have happened, the Browns have allowed five runners to top 100 rushing yards and all but one (Foster) also scored at least once. Expect a solid game here by Johnson that should top 100 and could go on higher. He should score at least once and likely twice. The Browns are reeling after their shutout last week and Johnson would love to steam roll them here.

The Browns passing defense has been statistically good but mainly because the run has always worked best against them and the Browns rarely score many points. Look for another low number game here from Trent Green who should throw no more than one passing score if that. The score favors Samie Parker slightly but could go to any player.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 29 3 30 6 10 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 12 18 23 7 24 31


Cleveland Browns (3-8)
1 14-19 NO 10 17-13 @ATL
2 17-34 @CIN 11 20-24 PIT
3 14-15 BAL 12 0-30 CIN
4 24-21 @OAK 13 --- KC
5 12-20 @CAR 14 --- @PIT
6 Open Bye 15 --- @BAL
7 7-17 DEN 16 --- TB
8 20-13 NYJ 17 --- @HOU
9 25-32 @SD - - THU
CLE vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Charlie Frye 20 0 180,1
RB Reuben Droughns 20 0 0
RB Jason Wright 40 20 0
TE Kellen Winslow 0 70,1 0
WR Joe Jurevicius 0 20 0
WR Braylon Edwards 0 30 0
WR Dennis Northcutt 0 40 0
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: Nothing says "we got our ass kicked" like a demoralizing 30-0 shutout by a team that wasn't noted for having a great defense. The Browns passing game fell apart and the rushing game never rose up. The defense had been good enough to keep them in most games but at 3-8, not all that great. The Browns have three road games in the four remaining weeks after this Sunday and the lone home game against the Buccaneers holds their best shot at the elusive fourth win.

Quarterback: After a nice start to the season, Charlie Frye has settled down into mediocrity with only two of the last eight games exceeding 200 passing yards (and just barely at that) and his string of games with just one touchdown pass ended three weeks ago. Not only has he not scored in the last two games he comes off a four interception effort against the Bengals. It takes significant trash time for Frye to top that 200 yard mark and that shouldn't happen against an opponent that likes to run.

Running Backs: Reuben Droughns returned last week to start and after his two carries for four yards, the Browns had seen enough and let Jason Wright back in so that he could gain a whole 12 yards on five carries. This rushing attack has never been more than mediocre and typically fails to reach that high. The Browns own the worst rushing rank in the entire league and have only three touchdowns by running backs this year. It appears likely that both Droughns and Wright will play this week so that no one has to shoulder the entire blame for the lack of rushing yards.

Wide Receivers: Braylon Edwards got into a yelling match with Frye last week and since he only had two catches for 29 yards, it is understandable. His problem was that he had racked up 137 yards against the Steelers the previous week and thought that was his norm. It is not. Five of his last seven games have come in very close to those 29 yards. Dennis Northcutt surprised last week with 61 yards but 43 came on one play and his six previous games barely totaled that many yards. The passing always goes to Winslow here and then Edwards - if that even happens. Joe Jurevicius has not topped 20 yards in three games.

Tight Ends: As always, Kellen Winslow was the most common target for Frye last week and while he has been solid as a tight end, he only has three touchdowns on the season.

Match Against the Defense: The Browns should score at least one touchdown here but how that happens is hard to see, The Chiefs are very good against the pass while Frye is not much for scoring himself. But the Browns rushing a score? It could happen but it would only be the fourth time this year. Expect low numbers from everyone in this offense with the standard yardage going to Winslow from a sheer volume of passes. I will project one passing score to go to Winslow because he is due and the rest of the offense fosters almost no confidence.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 22 32 29 4 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 6 14 16 12 16 10