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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 29, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
ATL at WAS MIN at CHI   TB at PIT Updated

Prediction: NYJ 24, GB 23

The Jets rise to 6-5 with their win over Houston last week and this team travels fairly well with a 3-2 record on the road. The Packers come off a loss in Seattle and a short week to prepare but are only 1-4 at home this year. This is a coin flip game to be sure but Green Bay has a knack this year of never being quite good enough.

New York Jets (6-5)
1 23-16 @TEN 10 17-14 @NE
2 17-24 NE 11 0-10 CHI
3 28-20 @BUF 12 26-11 HOU
4 28-31 IND 13 --- @GB
5 0-41 @JAX 14 --- BUF
6 20-17 MIA 15 --- @MIN
7 31-24 DET 16 --- @MIA
8 13-20 @CLE 17 --- OAK
9 Open Bye - - MON
NYJ at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 240,2
RB Cedric Houston 20,1 0 0
RB Leon Washington 40 20 0
TE Chris Baker 0 10 0
WR Laveranues Coles 0 100,1 0
WR Tim Dwight 0 20 0
WR Jerricho Cotchery 0 90,1 0
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Nothing really new with the Jets. After 12 games there still is no rushing game despite trying every available back. The passing game is limited to just two players but that can work on weeks like this against a soft secondary. The Jets defense is what has kept them in games - whenever the opponent has 20 points or less the Jets are 5-2. Imagine if they had an actual rushing game...

Quarterback: Chad Pennington comes off his best game in the last ten weeks when he threw for 286 yards and one score against the Texans last week. That was his first game over 200 yards in the last seven games and only his third score in the last five weeks. His production is linked directly to the quality of cornerbacks he faces - no other players besides Cotchery or Coles really matter in this passing attack.

Running Backs: The mind-numbing rotation continues and each week you can pretty much see all the Jets backs play. Cedric Houston scored last week but only gained 13 yards on 11 carries. Kevan Barlow has gained a hefty seven yards on 12 carries over the last two games combined. Leon Washington has recently topped out around 35 rushing yards per week. It all combines for less than what the average mediocre back will gain in the NFL.

Wide Receivers: Laveranues Coles comes off his best fantasy game of the year with 111 yards on nine catches for one score and that gives him four 100 yard games on the year and his first since week six. Jerricho Cotchery has been rather quiet for the last month and a half but he too had 110 yards on seven catches for a big game against the Texans. All other wideouts here rarely have more than one catch in a game, but at least the duo of Coles and Cotchery have performed well when facing a bad secondary like this week.

Tight Ends: No shred of fantasy value here.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers have never had a game without allowing at least one passing score so look for Coles and Cotchery to both have meaningful games here. Pennington will throw for just over 200 yards in this game since the secondary is so weak but he just hasn't been able to do much more than that in the best case scenario (which this is).

The Packers rush defense is about average in most cases and the Jets have no running game anyway. There is a chance that Houston could score but there should not be much yardage here from any individual back. There never has been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 21 13 28 28 17
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 21 32 14 30 17


Green Bay Packers (4-7)
1 0-26 CHI 10 23-17 @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 0-35 NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 24-34 @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 10-24 @BUF - MON THU
GBP vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,1
RB Ahman Green 90,1 30 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 20 0
WR Donald Driver 0 70 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 30 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 80,1 0
PK Dave Rayner 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Packers looked great while the snow fell in Seattle but once that stopped, Shaun Alexander never did. The Packers lost with Favre throwing more interceptions and the weak secondary once again allowed the game to slip past them. The Packers have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way but so far they have been challenged to take advantage of opponents when they cannot stop the pass. Ending with a .500 record would require a nearly undefeated end to their season and nothing so far has said that they are capable.

The Packers still rank dead last in points allowed (286).

Quarterback: Just when it seemed that Brett Favre had cured his interception woes, he threw three picks in Seattle and could have had a couple of others. But to his credit he had been throwing for more than 250 passing yards in each of the last three full games he has played and scored in each. Favre has almost always been good for one touchdown each week but has thrown for two scores only once in the last five games.

Running Backs: Ahman Green scored last week but only had 44 yards on 14 carries and hasn't had a decent rushing game in three weeks now. But he had six catches for 46 yards thanks to Favre dumping off to him very late in the game. Vernand Morency is getting slightly more play but doing very little with the chance. It's either Green or no one in this offense but his inclusion in the passing game last week was nice to balance his general ineffectiveness as a runner lately.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver scored his fifth touchdown on the year last Monday and he is the only Packers wideout that has scored since week five. Greg Jennings turned in 50 yards on six catches for a better than usual effort last week but his use is inconsistent and tends toward the low side in most games. Ruvell Martin has been almost no help at all. Driver rules and the others support with mediocre numbers in most weeks.

Tight Ends: As has been the typical case, the tight ends did very little last week and just rarely matter. Bubba Franks had a shot at a nice touchdown catch of about 30 yards but the ball was intercepted. That would have only been the third tight end score this year for the Packers and Frank's first one of the season.

Match Against the Defense: Look for a better game here from Ahman Green against one of the worst defenses at stopping the run. He should manage good numbers here and score once unless Favre turns it into a short pass to boost his career numbers.

Favre faces a secondary that is a little below average and that has suffered from problems with the right corner for the entire season. that match-up should give Jennings a decent game here unless the Packers move Driver into the match-up which would be no surprise. I am projecting for a score to Jennings because of the match-up but Driver is usually the better bet.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 14 14 15 21 17 6
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 20 29 22 21 9 6