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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
December 6, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Nite
BAL at KC NYG at CAR   SEA at ARZ *updated

Prediction: GB 14, SF 23

This game has at least the chance at some fantasy points since these teams rank #31 and #32 in points allowed. If averages meant anything, this would be a 28-27 game. The 49ers have now lost two games since believing they were playoff material while the Packers have lost their last three. This is actually a competitive game, just not probably a pretty one.

Green Bay Packers (4-8)
1 0-26 CHI 10 23-17 @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 0-35 NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 24-34 @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 10-38 NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 10-24 @BUF - MON THU
GBP at SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 220,1
RB Ahman Green 80,1 40 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 20 0
WR Donald Driver 0 80,1 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 20 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 40 0
PK Dave Rayner 0 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Packers now officially have the worst home record of any NFL team - just 1-5 on the season and not exactly a selling point for season tickets. After getting drubbed by the Jets, even Favre publicly questioned if he should have returned this year (and the magic 8-ball says... probably not). No team can give away points like the Packers. If only Favre could face the Packers in a game...

Quarterback: Though the reverse of most, Brett Favre has consistently been better on the road this year than when at home. Every multiple touchdown game other than week two have been on the road. But Favre has suffered there as well from turnovers of all kinds and currently has 12 interceptions and five lost fumbles on the season. Five of the interceptions have come in the last two weeks as well as two of the fumbles. More problematic than anything is that the last three games have only produced two scores and lately it has been either Donald Driver or nothing.

Running Backs: Ahman Green ran for 102 yards on just 14 carries last week and had four catches for 38 yards. Along with Driver he is the only working weapon that the Packers have and even then he only had one touchdown over the last five games. Green still has the ability to move the ball, the Packers just don't have it or keep it often enough.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver caught his sixth touchdown for the season last week when he had only three catches for 41 yards. That makes four scores in the last five weeks and no other Packer receiver has turned in a touchdown since back in week eight when the tight end David Martin scored. Greg Jennings hasn't seen the endzone since week five and only caught two passes for 14 yards on Sunday. Jennings hasn't been above 50 yards receiving in the last four games. This unit just has never progressed and even the early success by Jennings has disappeared.

Tight Ends: With David Martin out with a rib injury, there is virtually no chance that a tight end here has fantasy value. Bubba Franks turned in 18 yards on three catches last week which was his most involvement since week four.

Match Against the Defense: Ahman Green faces the worst team against running backs - expect a good game from him with a touchdown though only two opposing runners have scored there. The 49ers played Alexander tough in his first game back and while the 49ers cave on the road, they have been far better at home where no runner has topped 100 yards since week three.

Favre faces a secondary that always gives up a score and often two but the Packers passing attack has de-evolved this year. Expect just an average yardage game here from Favre and one score that has to favor Driver. No other receiver here has been a factor in scoring.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 13 13 15 21 21 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 22 32 14 30 28 23


San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
1 27-34 @ARZ 10 19-13 @DET
2 20-13 STL 11 20-14 SEA
3 24-38 PHI 12 17-20 @STL
4 0-41 @KC 13 10-34 @NO
5 34-20 OAK 14 --- GB
6 19-48 SD 15 --- @SEA
7 Open Bye 16 --- ARZ
8 10-41 @CHI 17 --- @DEN
9 9-3 MIN - - THU
SFO vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 0 0 170,1
RB Frank Gore 110,1 30 0
TE Vernon Davis 0 20 0
WR Antonio Bryant 0 50 0
WR Bryan Gilmore 0 20 0
WR Arnaz Battle 0 40,1 0
PK Joe Nedney 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The 49ers were feeling good at 5-5 but two road trips have stripped them of any playoff fantasies. The team opted for a pass heavy attack last week with minimal results and all they succeeded in doing is ruining the nice season that Gore was having. Back at home this week against a soft opponent, the 49ers should get back on track. With the Cardinals due in for week 16, a 7-9 finish is likely.

Quarterback: In a strategic error, the 49ers came out passing last week and then fell behind which led to more passing - it just wasn't very good. Alex Smith ended with just 171 yards and one score while throwing three interceptions. Running Gore allows the game to stay under more control but throwing - and poorly at that - on most first downs only led to asking too much from Smith who has only thrown for three scores in the last five weeks and has not been over 200 passing yards in six games.

Running Backs: Despite the fact that Frank Gore had gained over 130 rushing yards in the last three games, the 49ers opted to use him on 13 runs last week that turned into just 40 yards. That should be in just the first series - not the entire game for one of the most productive runners in the league. Gore has been lighter on the touchdowns with only five on the season but he has been electric when rushing against all but the best defenses.

Wide Receivers: The lone positive from last week was that Antonio Bryant finally scored a touchdown for the first time in five games and he had 79 yards on four catches - his best since week two. Arnaz Battle has been locked in around 40 yards in most games and had just 43 last Sunday. Even when the 49ers try to pass more it doesn't translate into more than just a decent game for Bryant. The sub-par passing of Smith has prevented these wideouts from having any reliable fantasy value.

Tight Ends: Eric Johnson is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a left knee sprain and he was unable to play last week. That gave Vernon Davis the clear start that he turned into just one catch for 21 yards in a game that was virtually nothing but trash time from the second quarter onward.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers on the road actually sport a decent rushing defense when Alexander is not ripping them apart for 200 yards. No other runner had topped 95 yards against them and only two players have rushed in score during a road game for the Packers. But this week should be a return to more rushing for Gore who will end with a solid game that could turn into spectacular. Expect at least 100 rushing yards and a bit via the catch with a chance for one score but likely no more.

Smith evidently doesn't matter regardless of the quality of the opposing secondary. He is going to throw for around 170 yards and a score at best. He has a great opportunity this week but nothing this season says he will be able to take advantage of it. Since the Packers are particularly bad against split ends, look for Battle to finally score this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 29 10 24 23 13 23
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 24 32 15 30 15