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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
December 13, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday Late
  JAX at TEN WAS at NO STL at OAK *updated

Prediction: DET 17, GB 27

The Lions season is slowly wafting to the bottom but at least they are in strong contention for the vaunted first pick in the draft in April. The Lions are, of course, 0-6 on the road this season. The Packers are only 1-5 at home this year but already won 31-24 when they visited the Lions in week three.

Update: The Lions have not brought on any new running backs so the rushing load falls to Arlen Harris and Aveion Cason. I am leaving Harris as the primary back. The Lions may still get someone new for the final two games but at the very least it appears that Arlen Harris is as good as it gets in Detroit.

Donald Driver is listed as questionable with a shoulder sprain he suffered last week but he continued to play with it and scored his touchdown after the injury last Sunday. Driver was held out of practice on Wednesday but returned on Thursday and is expected to play. Ruvell Martin is also questionable and has not practiced this week because of a bad chest bruise. He will likely miss this week and Carlyle Holiday has been practicing in his place and I am swapping the two in the projections.

David Martin has been out for the last month with a significant rib injury but he has returned to practice and could play though he remains questionable on the injury report.

Detroit Lions (2-11)
1 6-9 SEA 10 13-19 SF
2 7-34 @CHI 11 10-17 @ARZ
3 24-31 GB 12 10-27 MIA
4 34-41 @STL 13 21-28 @NE
5 17-26 @MIN 14 20-30 MIN
6 20-17 BUF 15 --- @GB
7 24-31 @NYJ 16 --- CHI
8 Open Bye 17 --- @DAL
9 30-14 ATL - - THU
DET at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jon Kitna 0 0 270,2
RB Arlen Harris 30 0 0
TE Dan Campbell 0 30 0
WR Roy Williams 0 110,1 0
WR Mike Furrey 0 80,1 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 40 0
PK Jason Hanson 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: It just never really gets any better. The Lions already perfected the "never quite good enough" defense and now have lost Kevin Jones for the season if not much of next year. Now the offense gets to shrink even more down to just Roy Williams and Mike Furrey.

Quarterback: Jon Kitna ranks fourth in the NFL with 3484 passing yards on the season but that has come with more of a price than a benefit. Kitna has only thrown 14 touchdowns this year and never more than one for the last six weeks. And he has 19 interceptions which trails only Roethlisberger thanks to throwing three interceptions in each of the last two games. Add in seven lost fumbles and there are 26 reasons why the Lions are only 2-11.

Kitna threw for 342 yards and two scores when the Packers visited in week three.

Running Backs: Kevin Jones ends his 2006 season with a Lis Franc injury to his foot that could be a problem through 2007. That only leaves Arlen Harris as the starter for a team that has struggled to run under the best of circumstances. Last week Jones had lost three yards on nine carries. This makes Arlen Harris as an even less attractive free agent. Expect updates if the Lions elect to start someone other than Harris.

Jones ran for 81 yards on 17 carries and scored one touchdown against the Packers this year. Good times... good times...

Wide Receivers: Roy Williams now remains as the only "stud" on the offense and even he has not scored since week nine. Williams gets the majority of throws but has only one game over 73 yards in the last month. Mike Furrey is a solid part of the passing game worth at least 70 yards in recent games because there is almost no other receiver to use. Corey Bradford is back but only adds up to 40 or 50 yards on a big week.

Williams hauled in nine passes for 139 yards against the Packers this year while Furrey had eight catches for 82 yards and two scores.

Tight Ends: Dan Campbell shows up for a couple of catches each week and has scored three times this season.

Campbell caught three passes for 53 yards against the Packers earlier this season.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers are fairly soft against the run but with Arlen Harris and a game likely to get out of hand, don't bother with the rushing game here that is undefined and likely unproductive.

Kitna faces one of the worst secondaries in the league which should help him keep healthy yardage and even increase his touchdown total up to two this week against the worst set of corners and safeties in the league against wideouts. Expect Roy Williams to have a nice game here and even Furrey should chip in some decent numbers since the Lions will likely be throwing for almost every play. The bigger question is how many interceptions there will be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 9 22 14 21 10 27
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 25 32 22 30 14


Green Bay Packers (5-8)
1 0-26 CHI 10 23-17 @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 0-35 NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 24-34 @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 10-38 NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 30-19 @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 10-24 @BUF - MON THU
GBP vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 250,2
RB Ahman Green 120,1 30 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 30 0
WR Donald Driver 0 100,1 0
WR Carlyle Holiday 0 20 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 30 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 50,1 0
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Packers ended their three game losing streak with the win in San Francisco but it only served to show how inconsistent the Packers are this year. These final three weeks include two home games before a final trip to Chicago who may be resting starters by that point. A four game winning streak is by no means impossible here - if the Packers can only win at home.

Quarterback: Brett Favre has been as bad as just 73 yards and as good as 347 yards in games this year but he threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in Detroit this season. He had only 170 yards and no scores in the meeting in Green Bay last year. He has been a lock for one score in games where he was not injured.

Running Backs: Ahman Green ran for 63 yards on 22 carries in Detroit and had eight catches for 68 yards and one score as well. Green did not play in the match-up in Green Bay last year but Samkon Gado ran for 171 yards on 29 carries and scored once in that game. Green has five efforts over 100 rushing yards has scored in two of the last three games.

Wide Receivers: Though defenses know he is coming, Donald Driver has scored in each of the last three games and comes off a nine catch, 160 yard game last week in San Francisco. And that isn't his best performance of the year. Driver has seven scores on the season but never more than one per game. Greg Jennings still has not returned to the form he had early in the season but has been turning in up to 50 yards for the last month.

Driver only had 50 yards on five catches in the previous meeting against the Lions and last year had 48 yards in Green Bay against them. Greg Jennings had five receptions for 86 yards back in week three.

Tight Ends: David Martin was deactivated for the third straight game because of a rib injury. Since his departure, no tight end has had more than 20 yards in a game.

The best Packers tight end against the Lions this year was Bubba Franks with three catches for 39 yards.

Match Against the Defense: Green already had a nice game against the Lions and now their front line is decimated with injuries. If Artose Pinner can run for 125 yards, there's no reason to expect less than a very nice game from Green with a chance for big numbers.

Favre already had a great game in Detroit and now the Lions are even worse. Expect a nice game here for the hometown fans that have not seen nearly enough of them this year. That should include at least two scores with Driver the favored (of course) and another for either Jennings or a tight end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 13 15 12 24 13 9
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 25 24 17 24 29 31