fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    


Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
December 27, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
ATL at PHI DET at DAL NE at TEN STL at MIN Sunday Nite
BUF at BAL OAK at NYJ updated GB at CHI

Prediction: JAX 10, KC 17

Here's a game that could produce a wild card but it will all depend on outside factors. If the Jaguars win, then they get the wildcard with losses by the Jets, Bengals and Titans. If the Chiefs win, they heed a loss by the Bengals, Broncos and Titans. Guess what - this is likely the final game for both teams.

Update: Fred Taylor has practiced for the last two days and expects to play this week. I have added him in and lowered Jones-Drew. Sidenote - Taylor is already grousing about getting a new contract so this may be the final time you can see him in a Jaguars uniform.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
1 24-17 DAL 10 10-13 HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 26-10 NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 24-27 @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 24-10 @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 44-17 IND
6 Open Bye 15 17-24 @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 21-24 NE
8 13-6 @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 37-7 TEN - - MON
JAX at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 30 0 190,1
RB Maurice Drew 40 30 0
RB Fred Taylor 50 10 0
TE George Wrighster 0 30 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 40,1 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 30 0
WR Matt Jones 0 50 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Losing the last two weeks quickly erased the benefit of beating the Colts in week 14 and now the Jaguars are likely home in January with no one to blame but themselves. The Jaguars are only 2-5 in road games this year and their fortunes have always been tied to the success of the rushing game and defense. Problem is that home games have been markedly better than road efforts this year and the passing game has never risen above mediocre all year.

Quarterback: David Garrard has posted better passing numbers in road games this year but mainly because the rushing attack is less successful. Garrard threw for two scores in two of the last three games as a visitor but he has never had more than around 230 passing yards on the road this year.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor missed last week with a balky hamstring and assumedly he misses this week as well. Maurice Jones-Drew has shown that being 5'7" does not preclude anyone from being an effective runner and he is only 105 yards short of a 1000 yard season. More importantly, Jones-Drew has scored 14 touchdowns on the season for fourth best in the league and added 420 yards on 42 receptions. He's fast, he's shifty and he hits like a 16 pound bowling ball.

Jones-Drew has only one start on the year and that was last week when he ran for 131 yards on 19 carries with two touchdowns against the Patriots.

Wide Receivers: The lone positive from this group is that Matt Jones has started to be a factor in the end zone where his height yields a definite advantage. Jones has scored only four times this year but all came within the last five games. Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams have both has the occasional decent game but neither offer any consistency or reliability.

Tight Ends: The rookie Marcedes Lewis failed to make any strides this year but George Wrighster has been consistent around 30 yards and has three scores on the season.

Match Against the Defense: Unfortunately the Jaguars head into a problem this week. Like the Jags, the Chiefs play much better at home and will want to end Herman Edwards first season on a high note. So far only one runner has rushed in a score in Kansas City since week one and no opposing runner has topped 100 rushing yards at Arrowhead this season. Look for only moderate numbers here from Jones-Drew who will likely fall short of the 105 yards he needs to break 1000. And more so if Taylor ends up playing.

Garrard faces a good secondary this week and he'll likely be pressed to pass even if only late in the game. Expect at least one passing score here but only moderate yardage. Reggie Williams has the better match-up here though Jones has been the go-to guy for touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 18 2 23 20 5 23
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 8 15 14 15 20 14


Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)
1 10-23 CIN 10 10-13 @MIA
2 6-9 @DEN 11 17-13 OAK
3 Open Bye 12 19-10 DEN
4 41-0 SF 13 28-31 @CLE
5 23-20 @ARZ 14 10-20 BAL
6 7-45 @PIT 15 9-20 @SD
7 30-27 SD 16 20-9 @OAK
8 35-28 SEA 17 --- JAX
9 31-17 @STL - THU SAT
KCC vs JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 160,1
RB Larry Johnson 100,1 20 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 60,1 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 40 0
WR Samie Parker 0 30 0
WR Dante Hall 0 10 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs have a shot - albeit small - at a wildcard but a final home game at Arrowhead is reason enough to want to end the season well. What was feared has transpired - Herman Edwards has taken one of the highest scoring offense in the recent past and brought it down to a run first team that tries to win the games small. The Chiefs offense has scored over 20 points only once in the last seven games and facing the Jaguars defense is not likely to change that trend.

Quarterback: Trent Green returned in week 11 and did little for his first two weeks. Then he had a big 297 yard, four touchdown game against the Browns. And then, of course, he has spent the last three weeks throwing for no more than one score and 185 yards in any game. Sounds like week 13 in Cleveland was the exception and not the rule. When Dick Vermeil left, he took most of passing pages with him.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson ends up the season only 27 carries short of the NFL record of 410 set by Jamal Anderson. His 1651 rushing yards put him near the top of the league but he's still roughly 100 yard short of his 2005 season when he only started eight games that year. After scoring 15 times in the first 12 games, Johnson had a three game drought until last week when he scored once against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers: The anemic passing numbers from the Chiefs meant that no wideouts here had much fantasy value. Eddie Kennison had a career high 1102 yards in 2005 but fell to only 717 yards as of this week. He turns 33 in January and his career is drawing down, hastened by the offensive change with Herman Edwards brought in. Samie Parker has been even worse with only about 500 yards on the season and only one score. If there is passing with the Chiefs, it has gone to Tony Gonzalez in great measure.

Tight Ends: Short of a big final game, Tony Gonzalez is going to end up with roughly the same season that he had in 2005 though his touchdown total was up this year with five scores. Gonzalez turns 30 in February but enjoys a renewed place as the primary receiver in the new directions this year. His yardage may equate to last year but his share of the passes has increased.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars defense will keep this game low scoring but Larry Johnson is safe to get plenty of carries in this game. Look for a chance for one score and decent yardage here but a big game is not likely unless he can run the ball 30 times or more - always a possibility.

Green has not been that productive this year and this is no place to expect a turnaround. Look for sub-200 yard production and the chance for one score that heavily favors Gonzalez.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 28 6 30 2 13 28
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 4 3 4 13 4 17