FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT GUIDE

Johnson comes off one of the most unusual and frustrating seasons of his six years in the league. His 1369 receiving yards were more than any other player. He ranked 8th best in both targets (152) and catches (87). He had seven touchdowns and was a top five fantasy wideout in almost every league. And yet – he did almost all his damage during a three week frenzy when he had 34 catches for 573 yards and five scores. In just three weeks! For the other 13 games of the season, he only had one game over 100 yards and scored only twice more. He only had 786 yards in those 13 games – an average of only 60 yards per game.

Johnson was far more consistent in 2005 when he had at least one score in eight different games and topped 100 yards four times. He ended with 1432 yards that year – 3rd best in the NFL. His inconsistent play – though productive – was bothersome last year to all but those in total points leagues. With the absence of Chris Henry, Johnson will need to be no less integral to the passing attack in Cincy and yet he could endure more coverage – though that would be hard to do. Figure Johnson as a reliable wideout and look for him to return to more consistent play in 2007 with the entire offense (sans Henry for 8 weeks) to be back again this year.

Smith comes off a down year but still had 1166 yards and eight touchdowns in 2006. That paled to the 1563 yards and 12 touchdowns he turned in for 2005.He missed the first two weeks with a hamstring strain but roared back to life with 112 yards in week three against TB. Over the first eight games that he played, Smith totaled 870 yards on 57 receptions but along with the rest of the team, Smith took a nosedive as the wheels fell off the offensive wagon. For the next five weeks – right through fantasy playoffs – Smith never had more than 67 yards and even failed to make a single catch in week 16 when owners needed him most.

Smith was openly critical of the offensive play calling (as were others) and the Panthers have a new OC in Jeff Davidson from Cleveland (but mostly New England). The new playbook calls for a return of the slant pass which Smith has been deadly within the past and Smith is already excited about 2007. He’s healthy and he’s happy. Now he just needs to be as productive as he already has proven he is capable of being. The Panthers have a much lighter schedule this year and Smith should be the direct beneficiary.

08-24-07 Update: Smith falls from the top spot to the #2 mostly because no clear-cut #2 has emerged from Drew Carter, Keary Colbert or Dwayne Jarrett. He will still get a ton of passes and could easily remain the #1 wideout, but the lack of a credible #2 so far means Chad Johnson is a better risk.

Owens' first season in Dallas resulted in 1180 yards and 13 touchdowns - about the same that he had in his final healthy year in Philadelphia. He played much of the year with an injured right ring finger that was blamed for his unusually high number of dropped passes. The finger had two surgeries in the offseason and an entourage everywhere it went. Owens has been faithfully rehabbing the finger with a hand specialist and has already shown up for minicamps. The finger should not be an issue this year and he played with the condition much of last year anyway.

What is most notable about last year was the role that Tony Romo had in Owens' success. Prior to week seven, Bledsoe had only thrown three scores to Owens and two of those came in his final game as a starter when Romo first took the field. In the 12 games that Romo played, Owens scored in all but three of them and had three 100 yard games. He had none with Bledsoe. While Bledsoe had trouble connecting with Owens, Romo knew right where the money was. Terry Glenn's numbers did not really suffer much with Owens, so the defense cannot solely concentrate on Terrell though he obviously will always be a concern. The new coaching staff may change some aspects, but feeding the ball to Owens will not be among the differences from 2006.

Just when it appeared that Harrison was slowing down, he turns in 95 catches for 1366 yards and 12 touchdowns last season – 2nd in both the NFL in yardage and receiving touchdowns. Harrison has not been under 10 touchdowns per year since 1999 and though he turns 34 this season, it does not appear he is ready to slow down quite yet. He had six 100 yard games and scored multiple touchdowns in four match-ups. As long as Peyton Manning is on the other end of the pass, Harrison remains one of the most consistently productive wideouts for the last eight years and has never missed more than one game in any season during that time.

Wayne ended his sixth season in the NFL last year and had career high receptions (86) and receiving yardage (1310) to rank 9th and 4th in those categories for 2006. He’s been consistently good for the last three years and has never missed a game. With Peyton Manning under center, Wayne is a lock for a 1000+ yard season and it is his touchdown scoring that wavers each year. He split the difference with nine scores last season but had five in 2005 and 12 in 2004. Like Harrison, Wayne is always a solid draft pick with the promise of returning to his 12 touchdown ways. The worst you get is still top ten.

(+Upside) The third season for Fitzgerald did not provide the breakout year (which really was 2005 anyway) but much of that was due because of a balky hamstring that forced him to miss three games and play less than 100% in a couple others last year. Fitzgerald still ended with 946 yards on 69 catches and scored six times. He had only two games over 100 yards though he was pretty solid in turning in 70 or more in most games. This was a big step backwards from his 1409 yards and 10 scores in 2005.

Fitzgerald had one monster game in 2006 – 172 yards against the Vikings in week 12 but never again had more than 93 for the rest of the year. But he did score four times in those final six games as a precursor to what he can do with a more experienced Matt Leinart under center. So long as he can remain healthy – a problem shared with Anquan Boldin – Fitzgerald will overtake Boldin as the clear top wideout in Arizona this year. In the new scheme ushered in by HC Ken Whisenhunt, the two primary wideouts should continue to enjoy fairly heavy use and Fitzgerald’s success in the endzone will be exploited. Also, Whisenhunt has always been noted for creative, "trick" plays that often use wideouts in various rushing or even passing capacities. Fitzgerald is the best athlete for a Cardinals wideout and that too will lead to more use in any gimmick plays dreamed up by the coaching staff.

(+Upside) Following the traditional route, Williams had his breakout season in his third year when 2006 saw him catch 82 passes for 1310 yards and seven touchdowns. He has never had less than those seven scores in a season but he almost doubled his career best yardage in his first year in the Martz offense in Detroit. He ended with six games over 100 yards and four of those exceeded 130 yards. The drafting of Calvin Johnson should not dig into Williams’ numbers (but will for Furrey) since by mid-season, defenses were content on blanketing Williams and letting Furrey end up with 98 catches on the year. Secondaries will not have that luxury once, or if, Johnson can meet his expectations.

Williams is now entering his prime years as an NFL wideout and plays in an excellent offense for generating big passing numbers. While Johnson gathers the attention, don’t forget that Williams’ ranked #3 in the NFL last year with 1310 yards while escorting much of the secondary around the field every week. It’s too early, of course, to overrate Johnson but what worked well with Holt and Bruce now turns into Williams, Johnson and Furrey.

(-Risk) Holt comes off yet another good season with 93 catches for 1188 yards and 10 scores. Those marks all were top eight or better in the NFL last year and Holt’s been golden for the last seven years but perhaps all is not as well as total numbers suggest. Holt comes off his lowest yardage since his rookie year in 1999 and his yards per catch (12.8) was the lowest of his NFL career. He started the year out red hot and by week six, he already had 526 yards and seven touchdowns. But in the final ten games of 2006 – when the new offense was starting to take shape and Jackson was running well – Holt only averaged 66 yards per week and scored in only two of those ten games. Not exactly what the first six weeks suggested would happen.

He topped 90 yards only once in those final ten games despite keeping up with the number of receptions. Even Isaac Bruce averaged 71 yards a game for the last ten weeks. Make no doubt – Holt is one of the most talented wideouts in the NFL and in his prime but the change in offensive scheme has not proven to benefit Holt’s production. Two main culprits exist here – the receptions by Jackson cost Holt some yardage and more importantly, the Rams now use more traditional formations instead of the four and five receiver sets. That means on most plays Holt and Bruce are alone in patterns and that prompts the secondary to devote extra attention to Holt. He did have a knee injury sustained in week 13 but that was his only 100 yard game in that last ten stretch. And he had 75 yards and two scores the following week against the Bears. He still has a solid reception total, but they are shorter catches than ever before. Add in Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael into the mix and Holt improving his numbers is harder to expect.

Holt still deserves to be a top wideout draft pick but he may carry more risk this year from the increased options for Bulger with Jackson’s receiving and the addition of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. There are only so many balls to throw in St. Louis. While obviously a solid pick, this season will answer if the change in personnel, team dynamics and scheme are really to blame for Holt’s marginal downturn in 2006.

08-27-07 Update: Holt falls a few spots with the news that his knee is bothering him from back when he had surgery in January. The joint has swollen and prevented Holt from playing in a preseason game. The Rams are taking it easy with Holt who may still not be 100% by the start of the season. Holt already saw a major decline in his production last year when the offense was finally installed and running to form.

True to form, Lee Evans had his break-out during his third season when 2006 provided 82 catches for 1292 yards and eight touchdowns. Evans went from catching the occasional long pass for a score to a consistent receiver with around 70 yards in most games and as high as one magic 265 yard effort he had in Houston. He only had two other games exceed 100 yards but he also ended the year on a high note with touchdowns in each of the last four games. Once the Bills elected for stability at the quarterback spot with J.P. Losman, Evans became one of the better wideouts in the league. His 1290 yards ranked 5th best among all NFL receivers last year and only nine wideouts had more touchdowns.

On the negative side, the Bills have a brutal schedule this year but then again, that will mean that Evans will be called upon no less than in 2006. He still lacks a credible #2 to lessen his coverage, but he excelled last year with the same situation.

(+Upside) Johnson led the NFL in 2006 when he had 103 catches – the only one over 100. He ended with a career high 1147 yards while scoring five times but he stands to improve if only Schaub can meet expectations. Johnson had a good overall season last year but like the rest of the Texans passing game, he did almost all his damage in early in the season and was much less effective as the season progressed. Johnson opened the year with four 100 yard games in the first six weeks and scored four times by midseason.

Johnson could be a great value in your league since the offense will improve with Schaub at the helm and so far there are just no other receivers that seem likely to cut into his action much. That could end up with him constantly double covered, but Johnson is much more talented than the team around him has allowed. The change to Schaub and at least marginally better rushing from Ahman Green should only help Johnson. Expect Johnson to improve this year and make a stronger case for being considered one of the elite wideouts in the NFL.

Thanks to playing with a Hall of Fame quarterback for a team that has not been really active trying to get a great #2 wideout, Driver has shown amazing consistency over the last three seasons with around 1250 yards and seven scores each year. He’s slowly been increasing his number of receptions a year to a career high 92 in 2006 but his average has fallen to only 14.1 – more catches but not that much more done with them.

The beauty in drafting Driver is knowing that Brett Favre is going to throw for good yardage and Driver is always his preferred target. While he had eight scores in 2006, the other six wideouts combined only accounted for five touchdowns. Favre needs 3862 yards to sew up the all-time yardage record and who better to help him than Driver? The worst you will get from Driver is solid and this could be his final year with Favre – the duo will be connecting as much as possible.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Colston was a sleeper wideout for the ages. No other seventh round pick can claim to have made such an impact as a rookie – maybe not for an entire career. Colston wasn’t even the first wideout drafted by the Saints (Mike Haas 6.02) and most figured him to be a tight end since he is 6’4" and 231 pounds. Colston was such a surprise in training camp that Donte Stallworth was sent to Philadelphia while Colston took the NFL and fantasy leagues by storm. He led all Saints receivers with 70 catches for 1038 yards and eight touchdowns. Not bad for a player that was skipped over 260 times in the draft and that came within four picks of being undrafted.

Through week 10, Colston already had 869 yards and seven scores but sprained his ankle, forcing him out for three games. That pace would have given him 1544 yards which would have easily led the NFL but after missing those three, he returned and only managed 169 yards on 16 catches for the next three weeks and then had nothing in the meaningless final game of the regular season. The noticeable drop in production came when the rushing game was going very well and more notably, Reggie Bush was turning in big receiving yardage games. And – Joe Horn was out of the line-up. With Horn gone after week 13, Colston was not nearly as effective and was the main focus of the secondary. The question to be answered this year is if that decline was related to a slow comeback from an ankle sprain, the increased use of Bush and/or the absence of Joe Horn who is gone this year as well. Brees threw for 384 yards in Dallas in week 14 but Colston only had 48 yards. It was Bush (125 yards) and Devery Henderson replacing Horn (92 yards) that had the biggest games.

Further complicating the situation was that the Saints wrapped up their division early and even Brees took it easier in those final weeks so Colston would naturally have lower numbers. His chemistry with Brees was obvious but he will be the main focus of the coverage this year and that could lead to a sophomore slump after a shockingly good rookie year. For these reasons he is a risk to consider as a #1 fantasy wide receiver for your team but on this offense with that quarterback, he makes for one of the most intriguing #2 wideouts you could draft.

(+Upside) Re-uniting with Chad Pennington hasn’t provided the potential uptick in Coles’ production that was hoped for, even with Pennington remaining healthy for an entire season finally. Coles comes off his seventh NFL season with 91 catches for 1098 yards and six scores – a career best for receptions and tied for 5th best in the NFL last year. But Coles only averaged 12.1 yards per catch and played through two separate concussions last year and also suffered through calf and rib injuries during the year and yet never missed a game. He’s a gamer to be sure and plays much bigger than his 193 pound frame suggests he should.

Coles should be a decent value this season since his numbers from 2006 don’t speak to the fact that he was so often banged up and playing injured. He turned in five efforts over 100 yards and when healthy usually caught six or eight passes per game. Now that Pennington has a full season under his belt and Coles starts the year healthy once again, the addition of Thomas Jones should greatly help out the passing game by giving the defense something more to think about than Coles and Cotchery. He carries some risk from durability concerns but then again – he always plays. Figure on Coles having some upside this year and a good value where you can reach him in fantasy drafts.

Six seasons in the NFL and Houshmandzadeh just keeps getting better – and rewarding anyone who has drafted him in the last two years. Houshmandzadeh comes off a career best 90 catches for 1081 yards and nine touchdowns last year and is getting rich as the Bengals’ starting wideout who is not Chad Johnson. He ranked 7th in the NFL for receptions in 2006 and was tied for 6th best among all wideouts with nine scores. Not only did he have more receptions and scores than Johnson, he was one of the most consistent wideouts in the league last year. Houshmandzadeh scored in eight different games and never went more than two weeks without a touchdown.

The absence of Chris Henry for the first half of the season could benefit Houshmandzadeh but it just as easily could be a detriment for him since Henry stretched the field so well and allowed Houshmandzadeh to operate over the middle and on shorter routes without being double covered. Even if Houshmandzadeh declines this year, it won’t be by much because he is so integral to the passing game. He doesn’t score quite as much as Johnson in most leagues because of yardage differences but he’s much more consistent and historically is a steal where he has been drafted. Carson Palmer relies on him and that can never be a bad thing.

(-Risk) (+Upside) This is simply the most interesting situation of all NFL wide receivers. And the most productive... maybe. The 30-year old Moss had not turned in more than 1005 yards in any of the last three seasons though he did have 13 touchdowns in 2004 during his final year in Minnesota. His time in Oakland produced two injury shortened years and perhaps one of the biggest "malcontent" performances of recent memory. Moss only had 42 catches for 553 yards and three scores last year in the offensive black hole known as the Oakland Raiders of 2006. There are now two parts of the equation to consider what Moss may do this year with Tom Brady throwing him passes.

First - has Moss' skills diminished as reported by sour grape ex-coaches? Hard to say since Moss has been unable to remain healthy all season since 2003. When healthy in 2004, Moss was still very productive with scores in all but two games when he was healthy. His first season In Oakland, his initial four games posted 117 yards per game on average with five catches in each and two scores. But then he was injured and plodded the rest of the year as mostly a decoy. In 2006, the well-documented fall-out with the new coaching staff left Moss little used if for no other reason than the quarterbacks could not even pass the ball before getting crushed. That season should be no measuring stick either. Moss is only 30 years old and has been wildly productive when healthy (which isn't always) and when on a team with a good offense (which wasn't last year).

Secondly, Moss now plays for the Patriots and their passing game that never focuses much on one receiver by design. Then again, there have been few receivers there that rank highly. For the last five seasons, the Patriots have had a different lead receiver in every year. But under Brady, there have been individual performances in the past with fantasy value. Troy Brown turned in 1199 and 890 yards in his first two seasons with Brady. Branch then had 803 in 2003 and then 998 yards in 2005. Those first two seasons with Brady had Troy Brown catching 101 and 97 passes. But also relevant, the Patriots have Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker to add to the same mix that played last season. There are only so many balls to distribute in New England and Brown's big years were when there were almost no other decent receivers. This will be a fascinating year for Moss and one that could define his career. Play back to form and head into the playoffs or tail off as he has and get injured once again. Regardless, Moss brings a very nice target in the endzone this year even if his receptions and yards wane.

07-27-07 Update: Moss tumbles a couple of spots because he hasn't been able to practice with Brady due to a hamstring issue. The Pats still contend that Moss will be ready for the start of the season but there is just more risk with Moss not practicing with his new team and new quarterback while nursing yet another hamstring strain. Big upside here but equally troubling risk.

For the first time since his rookie season, Boldin played all 16 games last year though he was hampered by a bad back for a while around mid-season. But he only had 83 catches last year and ended with 1203 yards and only four touchdowns. This partially was due to the learning curve of Matt Leinart. In the first four games, Boldin averaged 74 yards per game while under Leinart; he still had 76 yards per game. Not much change though three of his scores came from the rookie quarterback as did three of his four 100 yard efforts.

The more bothersome fact was that as the offensive line and rushing game improved the less that Boldin was used – particularly near the goal line. He had only one score in the final 10 games. The maturation of Larry Fitzgerald also had a definite effect on Boldin’s numbers as he managed four scores in the final five games with Leinart. With the new offense being installed this season, Boldin should continue to provide a rock solid possession role but his higher scores of years past may be over. Boldin often had more yards per game than Fitzgerald last year but lost out when the endzone neared.

(+Upside) This is the year that Branch either takes the final step up or ruins his chance to ever be a stud wideout in the NFL. After five seasons in the NFL, his best year came in 2005 when he had 78 catches for 998 yards and five scores for the Patriots. He was traded so late to the Seahawks in 2006 that he did not play in the first two games and it wasn’t until week six that he had more than three catches in a game. With 13 starts, Branch managed to turn in 53 catches for 725 yards and four scores.

Branch only had one game over 76 yards last year but he remained good for at least three or four catches per week (or more) and averaged 14.0 yards per catch when he played with Hasselbeck in the game. Now that he has a season in the offense, Branch moves over to the flanker spot vacated by Darrell Jackson – the first place that Hasselbeck has been targeting since joining forces with Jackson. With D.J. Hackett assuming the old split end spot, Branch is now a true #1 wideout for the first time in his career. He was Brady’s favorite target as well in New England but that scheme spreads the ball out far more than what Seattle will do. This is show time and Branch had the talent – now he has the opportunity.

(-Risk) Two seasons with the Giants and Burress remains one of the better fantasy wideouts in the league but mainly because of his touchdowns. He scored ten last year to tie for 3rd best in the league but his yardage fell from 1214 yards in 2005 to only 988 in 2006. His yards per catch remained almost the same but falling from 76 to only 63 catches last year was reflective of the passing problems of the Giants in 2006. Still, Burress scored in ten different games and typically had four or more catches every week. He only had two games over 100 yards last year and both came against the Eagles but he was at his best when facing NFC East opponents.

With the departure of Tiki Barber, the Giants will likely be motivated to throw the ball more and that should directly benefit Burress. The biggest problem that he has from becoming a leader in yardage is the decline of Amani Toomer and the lack of any other credible replacement so far. The drafting of Steve Smith this year may help, but Sinorice Moss last year was supposed to offer the same optimism. His role as a touchdown catcher maintains his value as a #1 WR in fantasy terms and a very strong one if he can be landed as a #2.

08-28-07 Update: Burress takes a small tumble in the rankings because he continues to suffer injuries and has not been able to practice or play. Burress has had ankle sprains and the flu and a bad back and now the back is flaring up again. He carries more risk this year.

The speedy wideout turns 36 years old this year and yet he hasn’t shown a lot of signs that his skills have diminished. Though the Buccaneers struggled as a team in 2006, Galloway still had 62 catches for 1057 yards and seven scores – a very healthy 17.0 yard average per catch and this while the Buccaneers passing game fell apart otherwise. The addition of Jeff Garcia would likely help Galloway with more accurate passing but Garcia’s arm strength would come up short on the deep routes that Galloway has always excelled with. The Buccaneers have a very favorable passing schedule for 2007 and with no upgrades to a lethargic rushing attack, it is reasonable to expect the passing game to pick up this year regardless which quarterback takes the starting role.

Galloway only had four games over the 100 yard mark in 2007 but his season high came in week two with Chris Simms at quarterback. Potential upgrades in Jerramy Stevens and especially the improving Maurice Stovall could yield a passing attack that gives defenders more than just Galloway to consider (unlike last year). He’s too old to be doing as well as he has, but with no other wideout nearly as adept as Galloway, the old man still is running fast and should be the focus of the passing game.

The 1.25 draft pick by the Steelers was the first wideout taken in 2006. He would have been the most productive rookie wideout had it not been for the aberration of the decade in Marquez Colston. Holmes ended up second only to Hines Ward for the Steelers last year when he turned 49 catches into 824 yards and a very healthy 16.8 yards per catch. He only scored twice last year but came on strongly towards the end of the season, topping 80 yards in three of the final four games and ending the season with his first game over the 100 yard mark. Those final four games were also the only ones that he started, having taken the #2 role from the ineffective Cedrick Wilson.

All things considered, Holmes had an excellent rookie season and should be even better this year. Hines Ward will attract enough attention that Holmes will continue to get the lesser coverage at least until he starts to show up Ward which could come sooner than later. He should come as a very good value in drafts this year since he only scored twice in 2006 and yet he only started four games and ended with 824 yards. That’s just the start of what should be a more productive Holmes for 2007.

Javon Walker made a big splash as a Bronco last year, ending with 1084 yards on 69 catches with eight touchdowns scored. But that wasn’t good enough to rank in the top ten for any receiving category of NFL wideouts in 2006. Where Walker made up some ground was in rushing nine times for 123 yards and one score. His numbers were boosted in week nine in Pittsburgh when he caught six passes for 134 yards and two scores, and added a 72-yard touchdown run for one of the highest scoring weeks of any fantasy wide receiver last year. He only had three games with more than 100 receiving yards.

Most relevant is that once Jay Cutler became the starter in week 13 (AKA just when you needed him most), Walker only averaged 46 yards per game for the rest of the year after turning in around 78 yards each week. He scored once in games against the Bengals and Cardinals but only once had more than 52 yards when Cutler was playing. Walker had problems from a lack of a #2 wideout to worry the defense and relieve coverage on him. Rod Smith has lost two steps by now while Brandon Marshall is still learning the game. Walker is clearly talented but that works against him until Cutler becomes more comfortable throwing into the tight coverage that Walker’s talent attracts. Expect a season that improves as Cutler gains more experience and realize that four of his eight scores came in just two games with Plummer as quarterback and those games produced 264 receiving yards – about 25% of his season totals.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Edwards tore his ACL during his rookie season and there was guarded optimism that he would not miss much time in 2006 and that he could return without too many problems. Ends up modern medicine is a good thing. Edwards richly rewarded fantasy teams when he caught 61 passes for 884 yards and six touchdowns in 2006. That included three games over 100 yards and six different efforts with one touchdown. All things considered, the second-year player had a banner year.

Now entering his third season, he is in a nice spot for a break-out but that will be controlled by the fortunes of the team more than by him. The Browns have a fairly brutal schedule and did nothing to address the #2 spot other than cross their fingers that Joe Jurevicius can play 16 games for the first time in his nine year career and allow Dennis Northcutt to leave in free agency. No doubt that Edwards will be the primary target in the passing game, but he’ll also be the primary target of the defense. If Winslow has any problems stemming from his knee surgery, then Edwards won’t be seen this year due to all the different colored jerseys surrounding him on every play.

Also notable is that the Browns may go to the rookie Brady Quinn at some point which could actually be a good thing, but it all introduces more risk in expecting the nice breakout that Edwards seems so capable of having. Edwards has already gone on record as supporting Fry to remain the starter but that will likely end up short-sighted because Quinn will get his shot at some point and likely that comes during the season. Vastly talented with great potential, Edwards is rather unlike most of the other offensive players.

Chambers turned in a career best 1118 yards and scores in 2005 and by some accounts was slated to step even higher in 2006 with the addition of Daunte Culpepper. Instead Chambers took a big leap backwards, recording a career low 677 yards on 59 catches and only four scores. His 11.5 yards per catch also was a career low mark. The reality here is that his 2006 season wasn’t all that big of a drop when you factor in that he had a 238 yard game in 2005 that greatly increased his normal season totals. His typical year was only around 900 yards anyway. Chambers usually would turn in only moderate yardage in most games and have a couple of big efforts each year. In 2005, he had two big efforts and one was a true monster. In 2006, he only had one game over 100 yards.

The entire offense had struggles last year even without the numerous injuries that occurred. Chambers has been a solid yet unspectacular possession receiver for his entire career but this year could signal a change. The Fins are switching Chambers over to the split end position to give him better match-ups and hopefully create more space for him on routes. Converting from flanker – where most possession receivers play – could add a spike to Chambers numbers or it could result in little difference since he is not exceptionally fast – he just runs precise routes with sure hands and has never shied away from the middle.

The worst that Chambers should post in 2007 should be his standard fare but there is upside from the new position in a new offensive scheme. He will be the primary focus of the passing game as well. As a #3 fantasy wideout, Chambers would be a gem and even as your #2, he shouldn’t hurt your team and could end up a nice surprise.

08-30-07 Update: Chambers was reportedly shopped around for a trade which is not likely to happen but he drops a few spots because HC Cam Cameron appears intent on putting question marks onto the few offensive players that matter in Miami.

(+Upside) Brown enters his third season and is positioned for a breakout year. After recording 571 yards and four scores as a rookie, he led all receivers with 816 yards on 46 catches and scored eight times last year. He fared better when Donovan McNabb was still playing and recorded 489 yards and five scores in the first seven games. He had two 100 yard games with McNabb but then suffered until Jeff Garcia heated up and ended his season with three straight weeks of 70+ yards. After two seasons, Brown has emerged as the preferred target for whoever the quarterback is. The addition of Kevin Curtis should not have much impact since he replaces the oft-injured Donte Stallworth and should actually help Brown by giving the secondary more to think about every play. His numbers from 2006 already make him a viable #2 wideout for your team and that was just his second season. He’ll be better this year.

(+Upside) Break-out time. His rookie season featured 44 catches for 471 yards and just two scores, and in 2006 he basically doubled that with 939 yards and five scores. Even better still was that Clayton had 562 yards in the final eight games including week 17 when he barely played. He turned in three of his four 100+ yard games in the final half of the season with his new quarterback Steve McNair. While Derrick Mason was supposed to be the primary wideout last year, the two wideouts ended with roughly the same number of catches but with Clayton having 189 more yards and three more scores.

This is his third year which could be a true breakout season. Clayton has all the markings of a player ready to take the final step up and will only be limited by how often the Ravens need to throw. That could limit Clayton, but there’s no reason to expect anything less than a solid season with some nice upside.

08-30-07 Update: Clayton has an ankle sprain that likely won't be healed by week one. Clayton claims that he will play regardless if it is ready but he drops a few spots from what could be a slow start.

(+Upside) Henderson takes over Joe Horn’s spot this year, at least until someone takes it away from him like the rookie Robert Meacham. But since Meacham appears to be progressing slowly, Henderson could end up a very nice draft pick for you in the #1 passing offense from 2006. Starting in week nine, Henderson took over for the missing Horn and later Colston and turned in games of 111, 169 and 158 yards in those three games. He also had a 92 yard game in Dallas when Colston was doubled and Horn was out again. Otherwise he did almost nothing last year and his 745 yards and five scores happened almost entirely in those four games. With Horn gone and Colston the main focus of the secondary, Henderson is in a great spot to have a surprisingly good year because Brees was deadly whenever a wideout was single covered. With Colston a hotter property in fantasy drafts, Henderson is a definite sleeper type that is available much later. Meacham’s presence is a concern but unless he shows up well in training camp, Henderson could be a safe play the entire year – and a productive one.

It’s been three long seasons since the 49ers had a wideout of any note but the addition of Darrell Jackson should final give the fans someone to get excited about. Jackson was very consistent in Seattle with around 1100 yards and eight scores in years that he was not injured but his durability has been a big issue the last two years and undoubtedly was a part of the reason why Seattle allowed him to leave. Jackson missed ten games in 2005 and three games last year due to a variety of injury issues but even despite having only 13 games in 2006, he scored a career best ten touchdowns and had a 15.2 yard average per catch until he suffered a turf toe condition. His toe was still a problem earlier this spring but should be cleared up for training camp – or at least until he suffers something else.

Jackson is only 28 years old and has several good seasons left in him if he can hold up. He’s one of the lowest risk fantasy wideouts this year in the sense that it is guaranteed that he will be the starter and receive the majority of wideout catches. He brings not only terrific possession ability, but his 47 career touchdowns is far more than all other SF wideouts combined. He will be a factor in the endzone though tight end Vernon Davis will as well. The 49ers defense should be improved this year and rushing game is already stellar. That will place Jackson primarily into a possession, “keep the chains moving" role that should produce consistent numbers each week, even if they rarely ever turn into a truly big game. Alex Smith enters his third season and will improve – and to large extent because he actually has a top-flight wideout finally and not a set of receivers that make the average 49er fan thumb through the game program to see who they are.

The third year wideout had a breakout season of sorts in 2006 when he beat out Justin McCareins for the starting job and then turned in an impressive 82 catches for 961 yards and six touchdowns. He only had three games with 99 or more yards last year but was good for around 50 yards in all but three efforts last season with the occasional good game to reward teams using him as a #3 fantasy wideout. Cotchery has proven to be everything that Justin McCareins was supposed to be – a solid complement to Coles that can offer solid production in games and has enough big weeks to make him rate as one of the better #2 wideouts in the league. Since Cotchery only had 25 career catches prior to 2006, his outlook for this year should be no less than a good 2006 campaign and could be at least a little better.

(-Risk) (+Upside) When Johnson was drafted with the 1.02 pick in April, most people believed the Lions netted the best player of the draft – his hype is that high. Johnson is viewed as mixing the work ethic and smarts of Marvin Harrison, the physical ability of Terrell Owens and the speed of Randy Moss. Johnson stands 6’4" and yet runs a 4.35. During his 28 games at Georgia Tech, he accounted for 40% of their entire passing game and scored 20 touchdowns. He has the size to tower over most cornerbacks and the speed to beat almost anyone to the endzone. And now he plays in a pass-happy offense in Detroit.

The problem with Johnson is that it would almost be impossible for him to live up to the hype that went so far as to deem him the “most gifted wideout in the history of college football". Unlike other star wide receivers, he is not heading to a team starved of talent since Roy Williams and Mike Furrey already accounted for 2396 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Johnson doesn’t have to save the franchise from day one though many will expect nothing less. The reality is that he is a very talented, much heralded wideout who is still just a rookie with only 28 college games as the starter. He left after his junior season.

Johnson could not have asked for a better situation to land in the NFL short of playing with Peyton Manning if Harrison and Wayne were not playing. The extreme measuring stick with rookie wideouts is Randy Moss who had 1313 yards and 17 touchdowns in h