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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

Prediction: JAC 17, KCC 20

The Jaguars come off their bye week with only the opening day loss to the Titans while the Chiefs come into this game after a shocking win in San Diego last week. Both teams come into this week coming off big road wins that finally saw them score more than 14 points in a game. What needs to be answered this week is whether either team is really as good as they seemed in their last game.

The Chiefs won 35-30 during week 17 of last season when the Jags came to Kansas City.

Update: Josh Scobee is still bothered by his quad injury and has not practiced. He will be replaced by John Carney again this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC   -2 36
6 HOU 14-Oct SUN 1:00 PM
7 IND 22-Oct MON 8:30 PM
8 @TB 28-Oct SUN 4:05 PM
9 @NO 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 @TEN 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 SD 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 BUF 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @IND 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CAR 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @PIT 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 OAK 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 30,1   160,1
RB Fred Taylor 70    
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 40 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   40,1  
WR Dennis Northcutt   50  
WR Ernest Wilford   30  
WR Reggie Williams   20  
PK John Carney 1 FG 2 XP  
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off a restful bye week still wondering what happened to that vaunted rushing attack of 2006? Sure the Jags are 2-1 on the season but the only rushing score came from Greg Jones. The defense has been very good by only allowing around 11 points per game which is the only reason they are 2-1. This offense was predicated on a great rushing game last year and lost because the passing attack couldn't get the job done when needed. So far that has not been a big need yet but that won't last all year. The defense will keep the team in games but the offense needs to step up if the Jaguars have designs on doing anything in the playoffs.

Quarterback: Three games into the season and David Garrard has been solid though unspectacular. He's thrown for one score in every game and never more. His only road game so far was in Denver where he only threw for 154 yards but he had a season high 52 rushing yards that week. He has never run for less than 20 yards in a game. Garrard does like to hold on to the ball which is why he is always sacked at least three times every week but he has not thrown an interception yet.

Garrard threw for 140 yards and one score at Kansas City last year. This was the game where Quinn Gray also played and threw for 166 yards and ran for two scores as well in the week 17 meeting.

Running Backs: The drought continues for Maurice Jones-Drew. After three weeks, he is stuck at turning in between 31 and 37 rushing yards per game despite getting up to 15 carries in a game. He has not scored and he has not had more than just a couple of meaningless catches per game. Fred Taylor has fared a little better and comes off a season high 84 yards on 17 carries in Denver but he too has not scored and had even less a role in the passing game than Jones-Drew. For a unit that scored rushing touchdowns at will late last year, these players cannot score even when they are near the goal line.

Jones-Drew gained 46 yards on 12 carries and scored once in Kansas City last year while Taylor only had 26 yards on his seven runs.

Wide Receivers: The starters here are Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford and yet the only ones with any scores are John Broussard who only played in the first game and Reggie Williams who has two touchdowns but only four catches for 52 yards over two games played. Northcutt has supplied a possession role with a season high of 79 yards in a game but overall this unit does not score and has only marginal fantasy value at best. Matt Jones did not even have a pass thrown to him in the last game. This team wants to run first and foremost, but so far about they have done is not pass much.

Matt Jones actually had 104 yards against the Chiefs last year and Reggie Williams turned in 90.

Tight Ends: The tight ends are showing more use and consistency here than in years past, but that only means that Marcedes Lewis usually turns in around 40 yards per week.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs always play tougher at Arrowhead Stadium but this week they will either be re-energized with confidence from their big win in San Diego or play flat because it was such a huge game last week. Since they have no room for error and it's hard to get too excited about their struggling team, look for the Chiefs to play at home as they normally would and hold the duo of Jones-Drew and Taylor to around 100 total rushing yards with a chance for one rushing score that should go to Jones-Drew but could go anywhere.

Garrard is not passing all that well and the Chiefs have a very good pass defense that will hurt the Jags if they get forced into a heavy passing mode. Expect only moderate numbers here at best.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 32 24 18 26 25
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 3 19 4 9 20 27


Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 3-20 +3 38
2 @CHI 10-20 +12 34.5
3 MIN 13-10 -3 33.5
4 @SD 30-16 +13 38.5
5 JAC   +2 36
6 CIN 14-Oct SUN 1:00 PM
7 @OAK 21-Oct SUN 4:05 PM
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 DEN 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 @IND 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 OAK 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 SD 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @DEN 9-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
15 TEN 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @DET 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @NYJ 30-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
KCC vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Damon Huard     200,1
RB Larry Johnson 110,1 30  
TE Tony Gonzalez   60,1  
WR Samie Parker   20  
WR Dwayne Bowe   70  
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: Not only did the Chiefs finally get some offense going this year, they waited until perhaps their toughest spot to start playing better - on the road in San Diego. Larry Johnson finally looked like the LJ of old even if it took most of the game to get there and even Damon Huard hooked up with Dwayne Bowe for a long score. With two home games in a row, the Chiefs have a shot at AFC West crown this year which is incredible considering how badly they played in those first two games. But the AFC West is very weak this year and the Chiefs just may be turning it around.

Quarterback: Slowly but surely, through four games Damon Huard has improved his yardage and comes off a season high 284 yards in San Diego that had two scores but two interceptions. His numbers were boosted by a 51-yard score by the rookie Bowe and he never connected with any other wideout in the game, but Huard has thrown better and the rushing game could finally be emerging which will only help the progress stay on track.

The Chiefs only passed for 181 yards and one score against the Jags last year.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson - the real Larry Johnson - finally showed up last week when he ran for 123 yards on 25 carries and added three catches for 25 yards. Granted that rushing total was inflated by a 37-yard run late in the game but the fact is that he finally had a long run this year and the Chiefs fed him the ball 25 times. Johnson still has not scored this year but his week four totals were nearly as much as his first three games combined.

Johnson ran 33 times for 138 yards and three scores when the Jaguars came to town in week 17 last year.

Wide Receivers: The rookie Dwayne Bowe has served notice that he is the rookie wideout that should have been drafted first - not Calvin Johnson and certainly not Tedd Ginn Jr.. Bowe set a Chiefs rookie record when he caught eight passes for 164 yards and a score against the Chargers on Sunday. Bowe was so dominating that no other wideout had a catch and Huard only threw one incompletion to Jeff Webb or there would be no evidence that any other wide receiver besides Bowe even played last week. That gives Bowe an amazing three straight games with a touchdown - the only other receiving score this year for the Chiefs went to Gonzalez. Bowe has been almost unstoppable and he is only going to get better as the year progresses. No doubt he will command far more attention from the secondary now, but the Chiefs got this draft pick right.

Kennison had 144 yards on six receptions and one score against the Jaguars last season.

Tight Ends: When Tony Gonzalez caught a touchdown last week, he tied Shannon Sharpe for the most touchdowns (62) caught by an NFL tight end ever. These last two weeks have seen Gonzalez turn in a total of 12 catches for 167 yards and that came against the defenses of the Vikings and Chargers.

Gonzalez only had two catches for 21 yards against the visiting Jags in 2006.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars come off their bye week after crushing the Broncos in Denver during week three. But they were not nearly as successful in their first two games when the Titans ripped them for 241 rushing yards and even the Falcons gained 80 yards on just 22 carries. Look for the reinvigorated Johnson to run well here and top the 100 yard mark again this week with his first 2007 touchdown as well.

Huard faces a defense that statistically has been great but that has only faced Young, Harrington and Cutler so far. Expect moderate numbers here from him with one score that should favor Gonzalez the most. If Bowe can get his fourth straight score in this game, then time to start considering him as a contender for Rookie of the Year.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 30 22 8 20 8
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 1 9 1 3 1 5

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