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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
On Bye
BUF, DEN
Monday
DET, IND
PIT, SFO
*updated

Prediction: HOU 10, JAX 20

Even with an injury decimated offense, the Texans held off the Dolphins last week and the Jaguars come into this game 3-1 thanks to having a defense that can hold opponents to even fewer points than the Jaguars can score. The Jaguars have allowed fewer points this year than any other team. And only the Saints have scored fewer. This is shaping up to be one low scoring game.

The Texans swept the Jaguars last year, winning 27-7 in Houston and then 13-10 in Jacksonville.

Update: Andre Johnson still has not participated in practices and will miss another week recovering from his knee injury. Jacoby Jones has been limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Jones may play this week but would not be 100% back from this Slight shoulder separation. I am not adding him into the projections but he could still potentially play this week. Ahman Green returned to full practices and is now expected to play. I will add him in and the Texans really want to work on their rushing game so look for Dayne to still have a role. Unfortunately, Green is returning to play against a very good rush defense that is even better at home.

Kris Brown has been limited in practice after injuring his left heel last week but is expected to play. He had the injury in the first half and it did not preclude him from playing last week either.

Houston Texans (3-2)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 KC 20-3 +3 38
2 @CAR 34-21 +6.5 39
3 IND 24-30 + 6 47.5
4 @ATL 16-26 -2.5 39.5
5 MIA 22-19 -5.5 43
6 @JAC   +7 37
7 TEN 21-Oct SUN 1:00 PM
8 @SD 28-Oct SUN 4:05 PM
9 @OAK 4-Nov SUN 4:15 PM
10 BYE - - -
11 NO 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @CLE 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @TEN 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 TB 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 DEN 13-Dec THU 8:15 PM
16 @IND 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 JAC 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
HOU at JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub     200,1
RB Ron Dayne 20 10  
RB Ahman Green 50 20  
TE Owen Daniels   70,1  
WR Andre Davis   60  
WR David Anderson   20  
WR Kevin Walter   40  
PK Kris Brown 1 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Texans made amends for losing to the Falcons by barely nipping the visiting Dolphins last week. Winning without Ahman Green, Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones is getting harder to do and a tough schedule coming up won't maker it any easier. Schaub has been masterful in making what he has work but once the Texans get back all their players, this team will only get better. But four very tough games loom before the week ten bye so staying above .500 will be a big challenge.

Quarterback: Matt Schaub comes off his first game without a passing score but he still had 294 passing yards against the Dolphins and that was without Andre Johnson or Jacoby Jones. Schaub has never had less than 220 yards in a game this year but also has not yet faced a defense like the Jaguars.

David Carr threw for 224 yards and two scores in the home game against the Jaguars last year but later only managed 167 passing yards in Jacksonville.

Running Backs: There is a chance that Ahman Green could return this week and that will be a big boost for a team that has tried to get by with just Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado who have barely been able to break two yards a carry though Dayne did score against the Fins. The rushing game here has never had more than 73 yards by any runner and only scored three times. This has been a concern of the coaching staff but without Green there has been no progress.

I will project for Dayne to start this week but look for updates if Green can play.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson has remained out now for three weeks and it is still likely he will miss one more. I will not include him in the projections until he can practice and show he is ready to play. Jacoby Jones has missed the last two games as well and will be excluded until he is ready which could be this week. Updates as warranted.

In their place Andre Davis has been rock solid with games of 117 yards and one score against the Falcons and 79 yards against the Dolphins. Even Kevin Walter has improved with 77 and 67 yards over the last two weeks. It all points to Schaub and what a difference he has made on this team. In past years it was Andre Johnson or nothing. Now it is just whoever lines up, gets the catches.

Andre Johnson had eight receptions for 106 yards and one score in the home meeting with the Jaguars last year but later only had three catches for 56 yards.

Tight Ends: Owen Daniels was already good for about 50 yards per week and in the last two games has turned in 69 and 96 yards. He has yet to score but has offered rare consistency as a tight end.

Match Against the Defense: That 175 yards turned in by Chris Brown to open the season looks more freakish with every week. The Jaguars have not allowed any runner to exceed 50 yards in the three successive games and held Travis Henry to just 35 yards on 11 carries last Sunday. Ron Dayne? Not pretty,

Schaub faces his toughest test yet and still doesn't have Johnson or Jones. The Jags have only allowed two passing scores this year over four games. In fact, no opponent has scored more than 14 points in any game against them this year. If Schaub can reach 200 passing yards and one score here it will be a success. Just not likely a winning one. Look for another good game by Owen Daniels.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 16 23 13 12 1 9
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 5 9 5 20 1 7

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC 17-7 -2 35
6 HOU   -7 37
7 IND 22-Oct MON 8:30 PM
8 @TB 28-Oct SUN 4:05 PM
9 @NO 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 @TEN 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 SD 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 BUF 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @IND 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CAR 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @PIT 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 OAK 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 30   200,1
RB Fred Taylor 50    
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 50,1 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis   30  
WR Dennis Northcutt   70,1  
WR Ernest Wilford   20  
WR Matt Jones   20  
PK John Carney 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars came within one field goal in the first game from being 4-0 on the season and that all goes directly thanks to a defense that has allowed an NFL low 10 points per game. In the immortal words of Bill Parcells, the Jaguars passing offense "is what it is". That's exactly one score per week and average yardage. The rushing game is where the boost needs to come and last week showed signs that the offseason rust may finally be coming off. And with this defense, it won't take much to win games anyway.

Quarterback: David Garrard is like a robot. He throws for exactly one touchdown every week, usually hangs around the league average 200 yards and still has never thrown an interception this year. He also gets sacked either three or four times every week and adds maybe 20 rushing yards. That's not much for a fantasy team but the lack of any turnovers and steady play keeps the offense going despite having no notable receivers.

Garrard was the starter in week 10 against the visiting Texans and threw for 214 yards and no scores with four interceptions.

Running Backs: While Fred Taylor has not stirred from his 16 or so carries for 60 yards per week, at least Maurice Jones-Drew finally got out of his funk and turned in 82 yards on nine carries last week in Kansas City. He looked like his 2006 self again bursting for a 52 yard touchdown and he added 30 yards on 12 carries. Taylor still has not scored this season and offers consistent though average numbers. At least Jones-Drew looks like he is finally waking up.

Fred Taylor had games of 84 and 63 rushing yards against the Texans last year while Maurice Jones-Drew scored once in each game with almost no rushing yards but had 58 and 56 yards receiving.

Wide Receivers: There has never been any reliable fantasy value in this crew for 2007 though Dennis Northcutt has turned in two efforts over 70 yards and comes off his first score of the year. After catching scores in two straight games with minimal yardage, Reggie Williams was only good for the minimal yardage last week. Matt Jones is back, sort of, but only had two catches. This is a receiver corps without any stars or any fantasy value that you can rely on.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis typically turns in about 40 yards per week on three or four catches but has not scored this season. No real fantasy value here.

Match Against the Defense: The Texans have been good against the run this year but have not faced many top running attacks either. Ronnie Brown had 114 rushing yards and a score against them and Joseph Addai scored twice. Look for an average game from Garrard who is on autopilot and should have one score, of course, that should favor Northcutt. I like the chance that Jones-Drew builds on last week and scores one as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 18 19 17 14 15 22
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 13 12 20 12 27 5


The Huddle
WEEK 6
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
On Bye
BUF, DEN
Monday
DET, IND
PIT, SFO
*updated

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