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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

Prediction: KCC 20, OAK 21

The Chiefs have won three of their last four games to help salvage their season and the defense has yet to allow more than 20 points in any game. The Raiders come off a thumping in San Diego just when it looked like they were turning the corner. This should be a very competitive game that is defined by which team stops the run the best.

The Chiefs swept the Raiders last year, winning 17-13 at home and later 20-9 in Oakland.

Update: No changes are being made to the projections but Josh McCown no longer is wearing a protective boot and was at practice this week though he did not participate in team drills. Lamont Jordan is doing extra stretching exercises each day to help loosen up his back but has practiced fully and should be good to go this week. Dominic Rhodes will get some playing time this week but the same was said last Sunday and he never played. He will definitely work this week but how much remains to be seen. Jordan is a safe start this week but we will finally see how much Rhodes will cut into his action.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 3-20 +3 38
2 @CHI 10-20 +12 34.5
3 MIN 13-10 -3 33.5
4 @SD 30-16 +13 38.5
5 JAC 7-17 +2 35
6 CIN 27-20 +3 42
7 @OAK   +3 37.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 DEN 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 @IND 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 OAK 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 SD 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @DEN 9-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
15 TEN 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @DET 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @NYJ 30-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
KCC at OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Damon Huard     190,1
RB Larry Johnson 110,1 20  
TE Tony Gonzalez   60,1  
WR Jeff Webb   40  
WR Samie Parker   20  
WR Dwayne Bowe   50  
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Nice win over the Bengals last week keeps the Chiefs in the thick of the AFC West hunt and now they hit the road where they are only 1-2 this year - but the lone win was huge in San Diego. Larry Johnson is running better (or at least getting more carries) and the passing game under Huard has risen from horrible to average. Add in a defense that has been about average and the Chiefs have returned to the same place they already were last year.

Quarterback: Damon Huard had thrown for two scores in two of the last three games and had over 260 passing yards in those match-ups. He's improved in almost all measures except for one. Huard has been sacked nine times in the last three games including five times against the Bengals. The receivers are the same as years past with Gonzalez and one wideout that matters. That's changed to Dwayne Bowe now

The Chiefs never threw for more than 148 yards against the Raiders last year.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson comes off his second 100 yard game of the year when he gained 119 yards against the Bengals and scored once. That did require 31 carries though and still keeps Johnson at just above a three yard per carry average. The Chiefs also traded off Michael Bennett to the Buccaneers in exchange for a conditional draft pick next year but that should have no effect on this offense anyway.

What is a new development as well is Priest Holmes practicing and potentially returning to the playing field. I won't project for him and he may not be anything more than the same" two carry per game" relief player that Bennett was. And should they need him to do more, there's certainly no guarantee that he can remain healthy anyway.

Larry Johnson tore up the Raiders for 154 yards and two scores at home and later 135 yards and one score in Oakland.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe comes off a quiet week with only four catches for 46 yards and much of that has to do with the success of the rushing game. Bowe already has three scores this year and had been above 70 yards per game for the three prior weeks. Jeff Webb surprisingly showed up last week with seven catches for 78 yards which is almost exactly the total of his previous five games this year. If big things are going to happen at all from this group, it will almost always come from Bowe.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez started the season with low numbers but has increased his production every week. The last two games both came in with eight or more catches and over 100 yards. Against the Bengals, Gonzalez scored twice. Huard has settled down and made better use of Gonzalez as the season progresses.

Gonzalez only played in the away game against the Raiders last year and had five catches for 67 yards.

Match Against the Defense: The Raiders rush defense has really fallen on hard times in the most recent games with three different runners gaining over 125 rushing yards against them. Tomlinson ripped them apart last week but Ronnie Brown and Travis Henry shredded them as well. Johnson is running better and has been very successful against the Raiders in past games. It will require a lot of carries, but look for Johnson to approach the century mark here.

Huard faces a secondary that has been solid recently but then again has not played against top tier quarterbacks. Expect no more than one passing score from Huard here and only moderate yardage. The Chiefs secondary should keep the Raiders from passing much so this game looks more like a simple war of the running backs.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 21 32 25 4 25 11
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 18 30 15 18 22 27


Oakland Raiders (2-3)
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DET 21-36 -1 39
2 @DEN 20-23 +10 37.5
3 CLE 26-24 +3 40.5
4 @MIA 35-17 +3.5 40
5 BYE - - -
6 @SD 14-28 +9.5 44
7 KC   -3 37.5
8 @TEN 28-Oct SUN 1:00 PM
9 HOU 4-Nov SUN 4:15 PM
10 CHI 11-Nov SUN 4:15 PM
11 @MIN 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @KC 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 DEN 2-Dec SUN 4:05 PM
14 @GB 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 IND 16-Dec SUN 4:05 PM
16 @JAC 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 SD 30-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
OAK vs KCC Rush Catch Pass
QB Daunte Culpepper 10,1   200,1
RB Lamont Jordan 90,1 50  
TE Zach Miller   20  
WR Jerry Porter   40  
WR Ronald Curry   60,1  
WR Mike Williams   20  
PK Sebastian Janikowski   3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Raiders came off their bye week and went into San Diego where Tomlinson just mowed them over. But in the AFC West, only one game separates the best and the worst so the Raiders also remain in contention for the division and a win here will help draw them even with these Chiefs. Lamont Jordan is back at least in spirit but Josh McCown has remained out with his lingering foot injury. The world is still waiting to see JaMarcus Russell but the Raiders are in no hurry to roll him out yet since the divisional race is still tight.

Quarterback: After his magical five touchdown game against the Dolphins, Daunte Culpepper started his second game and only produced one score against two interceptions against the Chargers on Sunday. He threw for 230 yards but the game had him playing from behind most of the way and the return of Lamont Jordan did little to spark the team. Culpepper will likely start this week as well against a very good secondary.

Running Backs: Lamont Jordan was able to suit up and play last week despite his back injury but he only gained 42 yards on 18 carries and added six catches for 46 yards to prop up his fantasy value. So far Jordan had two big games against the bad rush defenses of CLE and DEN but hasn't been nearly so effective in other games. The addition of the receptions last week helped but he had only caught three passes over the three previous games. He makes a great receiver but is not used consistently. The solid secondary of the Chiefs this week should force Culpepper into relying on Jordan again.

Dominic Rhodes is back and dressed for the game but never played, much to his publicly expressed dissatisfaction. HC Lane Kiffen said it had more to do with the Raiders falling behind and using certain offensive packages that did not include him. Until Rhodes gets appreciable playing time - or any for that matter - there's no sense in projecting for him.

Wide Receivers: The wide receivers broke their trend. Prior to last week, Jerry Porter would have the best games on the road and Ronald Curry would do his damage in home games. Instead, Curry turned in six catches for 73 yards while Porter only had three receptions for 28 yards. Going against solid corners this week won't make either of them an attractive option.

Tight Ends: Culpepper's second start finally had him use the tight ends and Zach Miller came away with his first NFL touchdown even if he only had three catches for 17 yards.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs biggest weakness is against the run and each of the three road games for them allowed opponents to rush for over 100 yards. Look for a good effort here by Jordan if he can remain healthy that is accompanied by decent receiving yardage.

The Chiefs secondary is highly ranked and has only allowed five passing scores this year with two coming from Carson Palmer. The tight ends have had more success though none have scored including Gates. Look for a decent game by Curry that should not become big regardless of game situation. Culpepper could throw for one score here but anything more would be a surprise. That has to favor Curry.

Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 8 5 21 25 28 14
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 3 17 8 7 17 22

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

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