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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
On Bye

Prediction: BUF 17, NYJ 24

This is a replay of when the Bills won 17-14 when the Jets came to Buffalo four weeks ago. Both teams are teetering on the edge but at least the Bills have won two games - both at home. And the only time the Jets have won this year was at home as well. Neither team is a contender this year and the Bills finally gave up on their quarterback of the past. The Jets are still sticking with their quarterback of the present... at least so far.

Update: Chris Baker's back continues to bother him and he has been limited in practice this week. I am removing the score from him and giving it to Cotchery. Baker is not a given to play this week so check on his gametime status if you must use him. Coles has also been limited in practice as he has for weeks now. He is still expected to play.

Buffalo Bills (2-4)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 14-15 +3.5 37
2 @PIT 3-26 +10 37.5
3 @NE 7-38 +16.5 41
4 NYJ 17-14 +3 37.5
5 DAL 24-25 +10 42
6 BYE - - -
7 BAL 19-14 +3 35
8 @NYJ   +3 37
9 CIN 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 @MIA 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 NE 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @JAC 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @WAS 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 MIA 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @CLE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYG 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @PHI 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
BUF at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards     200,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 80,1 20  
TE Robert Royal   20  
WR Lee Evans   70  
WR Josh Reed   30  
WR Roscoe Parrish   40,1  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Two wins in the last three games and just a one point loss to the Cowboys sandwiched in between. And now on the road to face the same team that they beat in week four. The Bills switch to Trent Edwards has gone well in the standings and Lee Evans has been brought back from fantasy obscurity. While the offense has been marginally better, the difference with this team has been the play of the defense but the Bills come off a three game home stand and now hit the road where so far this year they have never lost by less than 23 points. Granted those were in Pittsburgh and New England, but a loss in this game says the Bills really are not all that much better. For the want of two points in a couple of games, these Bills could be 4-2.

Quarterback: So far Trent Edwards had his best game of the year when he threw for 234 yards and one score against the Jets in week four. That was his first start in the NFL and his two successive games did not feature any scores and he did not have more than 176 passing yards. The passing game is still very sluggish outside of Lee Evans, but it wasn't even that good with J.P. Losman as the starter. Realize this one fact - the Bills have thrown for just one touchdown in the first six games.

Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch gained 79 yards on 23 carries and scored once against the Jets earlier this season and it was the only game where he had no receptions. Lynch failed to score against the Cowboys but had scored exactly one touchdown in the other four most recent games including one in New England. Lynch is still looking for his first 100 rushing yard game and gets close almost every week.

Wide Receivers: The nice aspect to the Bills receivers is that you really do not have to worry about anyone besides Lee Evans. He gained 72 yards on six catches in the previous meeting with the Jets and again had 98 yards on five receptions last week against the Ravens. That is about the only decent passing performances by any receiver for the Bills this year and no wide out has recorded a touchdown yet. Roscoe Parrish has stepped up to take over the spot vacated by Peerless Price and has actually decreased his weekly production by becoming a starter. He only had one catch for nine yards last Sunday. What little happens here goes to Evans and it is mainly because there are not many passes thrown. Evans just happens to catch most of his and does something with them.

Tight Ends: The only crowning glory to this group is that they hold the only passing score recorded by the Bills this year and it wasn't even the starting tight end who did it. Michael Gaines scored against the Jets that week but never had more than one catch in any other game. Notable is that the tight ends have been almost completely worthless every week but that week four game against the Jets had both Gaines ( 4-20) and Robert Royal (4-34) get involved. No other game this year has come remotely as close to using the tight ends so much.

Match Against the Defense: This is a rematch game held on the Jets home turf but it's not like the Jets are great in Giants Stadium either. Add in that the Jets are fighting an implosion from all the losses and no one is happy on the team - players or coaches. How that plays into this week is hard to forecast because each successive loss spawns a more emotional response the next week. And realize too that Trent Edwards had his first ever NFL start in the previous game and now has a couple more under his belt.

Figure Lynch for his standard one touchdown and around 70 or 80 rushing yards. Edwards had a career best 234 yards in the last game and that prized passing score. Since the Jets have never failed to give away at least one passing touchdown, look for at least that one that could go anywhere since it will likely be one of the few passes caught by the player in the game. But this will be the first road game for Edwards as a starter, so do not expect too much here.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 32 25 32 26 30 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 22 31 23 21 22 20


New York Jets (1-5)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NE 14-38 +6.5 40.5
2 @BAL 13-20 +9.5 33
3 MIA 31-28 +3 35.5
4 @BUF 14-17 -3 37.5
5 @NYG 24-35 +3 41
6 PHI 9-16 +4.5 43.5
7 @CIN 31-38 +5.5 46.5
8 BUF   -3 37
9 WAS 4-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
10 BYE - - -
11 PIT 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @DAL 22-Nov THU 4:15 PM
13 @MIA 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CLE 9-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
15 @NE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @TEN 23-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
17 KC 30-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
NYJ vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington     240,2
RB Thomas Jones 100,1 10  
TE Chris Baker   20  
WR Laveranues Coles   80,1  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   70,1  
WR Brad Smith   30  
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Tough time for the Jets who had only the one home win over the Fins to prevent an 0-6 start to the season. HC Eric Mangini has proceeded well into the anger phase of the seven stages of death and it almost seems like the defense allows just enough scoring to secure the loss no matter how many points the Jets score. Quite simply this is the best shot for a win for the rest of the year. A loss this week spells complete and total disaster for a franchise that has a tough schedule left to play. The most amazing part of the Jets is that the Patriots would even bother to film their defensive signals on the sideline. They must have been making a bloopers film.

Quarterback: Chad Pennington is doing everything he can to save his starting job and comes off an impressive (statistically) performance over the Bengals (like who doesn't?) when he ended with 272 yards and three scores and he only had one interception though it sort of was returned for the game-winning margin for the Bengals. Pennington had stumbled lately until finally going against the ghost secondary in Cincinnati. But he did throw for 291 yards and one score against the Bills a few weeks ago with two interceptions.

By comparison, Kellen Clemens had one start and threw for 260 yards and one score in Baltimore. That translates to like 500 yards against the Bengals.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones only gained 35 yards on 12 carries against the Bills in week four while Leon Washington scored once and gained 24 yards on just four carries with 38 yards on eight catches. Jones comes off a bad game against the Bengals with only 67 yards on 19 carries but he consistently plays better at home where he has his only two games over 100 rushing yards this year. He also has yet to actually score a touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Laveranues Coles had eight receptions for 65 yards and a score against the Jets this year while Jerricho Cotchery turned in eight catches for 107 yards. Coles comes off his best game of the year (of course) when he had 133 yards and two scores against the Bengals but that was his only game over 89 yards this season. Cotchery has twice topped 100 yards but his best effort came when Clemens was the quarterback. Back at home this week should give Pennington plenty of reasons to want to continue to play well and keep Clemens on the bench. That definitely favors Coles.

Tight Ends: Chris Baker has never had more than 29 yards in any home game this year and only had 24 yards on three catches in the meeting in Buffalo this year.

Match Against the Defense: This is like a make or break game. Not in the sense that it has any bearing on the standings but HC Mangini is fighting the loss of his team figuratively and possibly literally. This is a home game and the best chance for the Jets to notch a win. Jones did little in the first meeting but never runs well on the road. I like him to not only get close to 100 rushing yards here but to also score his first rushing touchdown of the year. He has topped 100 yards twice this year in the two most recent home games.

Pennington's passing will depend on what Jones can or cannot do. Since it looks like this is a decent spot for a good game from Jones, expect Pennington's numbers to be only moderate here but with two passing scores that should favor Coles and a tight end.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 18 32 7 24 21 25
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 26 22 27 23 24 4

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
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