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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 9
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
Monday
On Bye
CHI, MIA
*updated
NYG, STL

Prediction: CIN 24, BUF 20

The Bengals stumble into this game after their most recent defeat and bring an 0-3 road record to Buffalo where the Bills are 2-1 with only the one point loss to the Cowboys to prevent a perfect stretch. This is a coin flip game that depends on how well the Bills can pass against how few mistakes that the Bengals make.

Update: Kenny Watson was held to limited practice on Wednesday but he was back on Thursday and is expected to play. Rudi Johnson also went through full practices this week and will finally get back on the field but will share the load with Watson and even Dede Dorsey according to HC Marvin Lewis. I am adding Rudi Johnson to the projections but remember he will not be carrying a full load this week.

Chad Johnson has a sore ankle and was held from practice on Thursday like last week but he is expected to start without limitation.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5)
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 BAL 27-20 +3 40.5
2 @CLE 45-51 -7 41.5
3 @SEA 21-24 +3 50
4 NE 13-34 +7.5 54
5 BYE - - -
6 @KC 20-27 -3 42
7 NYJ 38-31 -5.5 46.5
8 PIT 13-24 +3.5 48.5
9 @BUF   -1 43.5
10 @BAL 11-Nov SUN 4:05 PM
11 ARI 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 TEN 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @PIT 2-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
14 STL 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @SF 15-Dec SAT 8:15 PM
16 CLE 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @MIA 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
CIN at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer     300,2
RB Kenny Watson 40,1 30  
RB Rudi Johnson 50    
TE Reggie Kelly   10  
WR Chad Johnson   110,1  
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh   80,1  
WR Glenn Holt   40  
PK Shayne Graham 1 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: Tough times in Cincinnati with the Bengals only winning once in the last six games and the defense second only to Miami in points allowed per game (30.1). The schedule has been no friend to the Bengals this year but that still doesn't fully explain why the passing game has decreased to little more than one scoring pass to Houshmandzadeh per week and Rudi Johnson's balky hamstring allowing Kenny Watson to rediscover his career.

Quarterback: While Carson Palmer has thrown for a score in each game this year, since his week two explosion for six scores he has only posted a single score in four of the last five games. Starting in week three, he only has six touchdowns against seven interceptions and his three games over 300 passing yards have been balanced by four games with 230 yards or less. Even in the lone win during these six bad weeks only had him throwing for 226 yards and one score against the Jets. One interesting note though -his three big games with 320+ passing yards all came in the three road games.

Running Backs: Rudi Johnson has effectively missed the last four games with a nagging hamstring injury and he never practiced last week. That should mean that Kenny Watson gets yet another start. This is not a negative to the Bengals though with Watson playing very well these last two weeks. He gained 88 yards against the Steelers rush defense and added five catches for 26 yards. The previous week against the Jets, he had a career game with 130 yards and three touchdowns. He makes a very nice starter again this week.

Wide Receivers: Amazingly, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has now strung together seven straight games with a score and has nine touchdowns on the season. He still trails Chad Johnson slightly in yardage but only because Johnson had the 209 yard effort back in week two. Johnson has not scored since that game but at least his two best efforts have come in road games this year. Then again, the same is true for Houshmandzadeh as well. At some point, Houshmandzadeh will fail to score a touchdown but he's been the most consistent fantasy receiver of any this year.

Tight Ends: Reggie Kelly gets his one catch per game... usually.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills biggest weakness this year has been against the run with most opponents getting a very healthy showing from their running game. Expect a score and close to 100 yards here from Watson this week.

Palmer always posts better numbers in road games and the Bill should be no exception to that rule since they have already allowed four opponents to post 290+ passing yards. Look for a couple of scores here and over 300 yards. This should be a place for Chad Johnson to finally have another big game and, of course, for Houshmandzadeh to get yet another score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 5 21 2 32 12 18
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 25 21 28 19 18 3

 

Buffalo Bills (3-4)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 14-15 +3.5 37
2 @PIT 3-26 +10 37.5
3 @NE 7-38 +16.5 41
4 NYJ 17-14 +3 37.5
5 DAL 24-25 +10 42
6 BYE - - -
7 BAL 19-14 +3 35
8 @NYJ 13-3 +3 37
9 CIN   +1 43.5
10 @MIA 11-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
11 NE 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @JAC 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @WAS 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 MIA 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @CLE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYG 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @PHI 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
BUF vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman     210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 100,1 20  
TE Robert Royal   20  
WR Lee Evans   80,1  
WR Josh Reed   30  
WR Roscoe Parrish   50  
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Bills have not been favored in any games this year and yet are 3-4 and only the Dallas loss by one point prevented them from reaching a four game winning streak. Last week, the Bills finally opted to start Trent Edwards and give up on J.P. Losman only to see Edwards leave the game injured and have Losman come in and win the game. Now there's a confusing situation. The Bills have done well over the last month but now are facing a much tougher stretch to the season that will prove a much bigger challenge with the Pats coming to town and road trips to Jacksonville and Washington on the slate. But a win here says the Bills are turning around and doing it largely thanks to an improved defense.

Quarterback: Trent Edwards had only thrown for 130 yards and one interception before injuring his wrist last week and HC Dick Jauron said that it will be later in the week before he decides on a starter for this game. I will assume that J.P. Losman gets the start until the situation is clearer and will update if needed. Losman did thrown for 113 yards and went 3 for 5 on his passing but one was an 85 yard touchdown catch and run with Lee Evans. That was the only time Losman has been successful with him this year and it was only one play where defenders took each other out. As a starter this year, Losman still has not had more than 154 passing yards in any game.

Running Backs: Seven weeks into his NFL career and Marshawn Lynch is still searching for his first game over 100 rushing yards even though he usually posts around 80 yards in every game and has scored four times this season. Lynch has been on almost auto-pilot this year gaining roughly the same yardage every week regardless what the game situation has been.

Wide Receivers: Lee Evans was impressive scoring that 85 yard touchdown last week and that is the first time he has scored this year. That is the first touchdown by any wideout for the Bills. That was also only the second passing score thrown this entire season by the Bills. Evans has fared better with Edwards as the quarterback though the touchdown was thrown by Losman. If anything happens for the Bills via the pass, it will be to Evans but that doesn't happen in most weeks and never has happened before with Losman as the starter.

Tight Ends: Just minimal yardage and a couple of catches per week by Robert Royal. There is no fantasy value with the Bills passing game outside of Evans and certainly not with the tight ends.

Match Against the Defense: Here comes the chance for the Bills to finally post a decent showing by the offense. The Bengals are bad in every facet of defense and if Lynch is ever going to get over the 100 yard hump this year, this is the game. Expect good yardage and a score here from the rookie.

Losman gets a big present if he starts against the Bengals since they have allowed 18 touchdowns over the last six games and never less than two per week. That is pretty heady stuff for a team that only has a total of two scores on the year. Expect eventually that Evans gets a score here but anything else would be so new, so completely untried that it is not predictable.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 32 26 29 27 29 6
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 30 24 32 28 28 17

The Huddle
WEEK 9
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
Monday
On Bye
CHI, MIA
*updated
NYG, STL

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