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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

Prediction: ATL 7, CAR 17

Update: Jerious Norwood has not practiced so far this week because of his sprained ankle and I am removing him from the projections. He has not been ruled out but at best he will be limited this week and Warrick Dunn will have a heavier workload. Artose Pinner would likely replace Norwood if needed, but the Falcons would stil just rely more heavily on Dunn. Alge Crumpler has been limited in practice and looks like a game-time decision. There is no reason to add him into the projections.

Vinny Testaverde has practiced both times this week and is not on the injury report. I am adding him back into the projections and removing Matt Moore which has a domino effect.

The Falcons finally recorded their second win of the season and hit the road where they are 0-4 on the season. The Panthers have lost their last two games and are a remarkable 0-3 at home and yet 4-1 on the road. No matter the records, the Falcons are just not ready for back-to-back wins quite yet.

The Panthers beat the Falcons 27-20 in Atlanta back in week three.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
Homefield: Georgia Dome
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @MIN 3-24 +3 36
2 @JAC 7-13 +11 34.5
3 CAR 20-27 +4 37.5
4 HOU 26-16 +2.5 39.5
5 @TEN 13-20 +8 41
6 NYG 10-31 +4.5 43
7 @NO 16-22 +9 43
8 BYE - - -
9 SF 20-16 -3 37
10 @CAR   +4.5 36.5
11 TB 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 IND 22-Nov THU 8:15 PM
13 @STL 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 NO 10-Dec MON 8:30 PM
15 @TB 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @ARI 23-Dec SUN 4:05 PM
17 SEA 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
ATL at CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington     170,1
RB Warrick Dunn 70 20  
RB Jerious Norwood 30 20
WR Joe Horn   20  
WR Michael Jenkins   30,1  
WR Roddy White   70  
PK Morten Andersen   1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The passing game has devolved into just pitch and catch with Roddy White but the rushing game has shown life when at home against a weaker defense. The Panthers have their problems but are not quite Falcons bad yet and the upcoming schedule does no favors here with home games against the Bucs and Colts on the horizon. Now that the Saints have it back together, the Falcons may have seen their final win for the year.

Quarterback: No changes here other than Joey Harrington has shown remarkable consistency by never throwing a touchdown in the last four games and now struggling to get past the 150 yard mark in a game. On the plus side he never throws more than one interception per game. That's it for his positives. Once Byron Leftwich is healthy from his ankle surgery, Harrington will again step down until Byron is again injured.

Harrington threw for 361 yards and two scores in the week three meeting with the Panthers. That seems like a lifetime ago.

Running Backs: Warrick Dunn comes off a monster game (relative term) when he gained 100 yards on 27 carries and scored a touchdown against the 49ers. That was his first effort over 62 yards this season and only his second score. Jerious Norwood had his standard six carries for 39 yards but sprained his ankle. He is expected to be okay to play this week.. In five of the last six games, Norwood had exactly six carries and ended up with around six yards per carry each time. That would suggest if Dunn had six carries last week he would have gained around 21 yards and 27 carries for Norwood would produce around 160 yards. Consider it allergic to success.

Dunn only gained 55 yards and Norwood had 32 rushing yards in the first meeting with the Panthers.

Wide Receivers: Roddy White has gained 585 yards which puts him on target for a 1000 yard season for an Atlanta Falcon wide receiver. White has remained over 55 yards every week and has two efforts over 100 already. Michael Jenkins shows up about once every four weeks. This passing attack is really the same as when Vick was on board outside of White.

Roddy White gained 127 yards and scored once in the week three game against the Panthers while Michael Jenkins had six catches for 76 yards.

Tight Ends: Alge Crumpler hasn't played since week six thanks to a knee sprain and he may not make it back this week. He has been nearly invisible even when healthy so the fantasy value is gone here as well.

Crumpler gained 63 yards on six catches and scored once in the first meeting with the Panthers. He hasn't totaled 63 yards since that week.

Match Against the Defense: The Falcons offense has been on a slide since that week three game and on the road they have only averaged around nine points. Look for one touchdown in this game that has to favor White or Jenkins but for lower numbers all around.

Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 27 25 21 22 16 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 11 18 12 7 19 7


Carolina Panthers (4-4)
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @STL 27-13 -1 42
2 HOU 21-34 -6.5 39
3 @ATL 27-20 -4 37.5
4 TB 7-20 -3 39
5 @NO 16-13 +4 43
6 @ARI 25-10 +6 38.5
7 BYE - - -
8 IND 7-31 +6.5 45
9 @TEN 7-20 +4 40
10 ATL   -4.5 36.5
11 @GB 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 NO 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 SF 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @JAC 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 SEA 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 DAL 22-Dec SAT 8:15 PM
17 @TB 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
CAR at ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore 150,1
QB Vinny Testaverde     210,1
RB DeShaun Foster 110,1 20  
RB DeAngelo Williams 40 20  
TE Jeff King   30  
WR Steve Smith   80,1  
WR Keary Colbert   20  
WR Drew Carter   20  
PK John Kasay 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Panthers offensive woes can be directly correlated to the loss of Jake Delhomme and it ends up that David Carr really is just David Carr. With only one score in each of the last two weeks, the Panthers are looking to add a new quarterback and that can only help. The schedule is pretty kind with Atlanta this week but after this only the week 13 match-up with the 49ers looks like a safe win. This week may be as good as it gets for the offense for the rest of the year.

Quarterback: The Panthers lost Vinnie Testaverde to an Achilles injury and David Carr has never had more than 150 passing yards or one score in any game. Carr suffered a concussion last week and may not play which would make Matt Moore the starter. Knowing this, the Panthers are feverishly interviewing quarterbacks this week including Chris Weinke and Doug Johnson. I will project for Moore to start for now but that will likely change.

Carr and Jake Delhomme both played in the first game in Atlanta and combined for only 165 yards and two touchdowns.

Running Backs: DeShaun Foster has been locked around 17 carries for 60 yards for the last five weeks though he has scored three times including twice against the Falcons. For reasons unknown, Foster always goes off when he plays the Falcons and almost never against any other team. His 122 yards on 20 carries in Atlanta this year was just more of the same. Over the last three years, Foster has topped 100 rushing yards only six times and four of those were against the Falcons. In 2005, he only had two big games - both against the Falcons. Last year - 102 yards in Atlanta. He just hates the Falcons for some reason and cannot excel against any other team.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith owners are easy to spot. They are the guys who have torn off their shirts and are beating their chests while wailing. If it isn't Delhomme or Testaverde as the quarterback, Smith has never had more than 47 yards in any game and has a total of just 33 yards over the last two weeks. There are other receivers here, but none with even that much fantasy value.

Steve Smith was held to just one catch for 10 yards in Atlanta this year.

Tight Ends: While Jeff King caught ten passes for 82 yards against the Colts, he was back to his old two catches for 14 yards last week. Carr even kills the tight ends.

King snared four passes for 56 yards and a score in Atlanta this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Panthers have big quarterback problems now but at least Foster is always reliable to have a good game against the Falcons. Look for a rare 100+ yard game with one score. And who ever the quarterback ends up to be, he could throw a score here but that is hard to rely on. I am projecting for a defensive score in this game as well. Atlanta on the road is always a good game for Foster - nothing else here is reliable.

Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 22 17 18 20 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 10 28 7 17 17 20

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

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