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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
Monday
On Bye
HOU, NE
*updated
NYJ, TB

Prediction: BUF 23, MIA 10

Update: Roscoe Parrish has been held out of practice with a thigh bruise but has not been ruled out yet. I am lowering his projections and giving it to Josh Reed who should benefit. In the highly unlikely event you need Parrish this week, check the game time inactives.

These divisional rivals square off for the first time this year but the Bills are on a three game winning streak while the Dolphins have lost their last 11 dating back to last season (and the last team they beat was when they shut out the Patriots - go figure). Forget about what happened in London, the Bills want to be a contender and the Fins just do not have the parts to get a car in the race. It doesn't even hardly look like a car anymore.

In 2006, the Bills swept the Dolphins 16-6 and 21-0.

Buffalo Bills (4-4)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 14-15 +3.5 37
2 @PIT 3-26 +10 37.5
3 @NE 7-38 +16.5 41
4 NYJ 17-14 +3 37.5
5 DAL 24-25 +10 42
6 BYE - - -
7 BAL 19-14 +3 35
8 @NYJ 13-3 +3 37
9 CIN 33-21 +1 43.5
10 @MIA   -3 41
11 NE 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @JAC 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @WAS 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 MIA 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @CLE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYG 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @PHI 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
BUF at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman     220,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 10  
TE Robert Royal   20  
WR Lee Evans   80,1  
WR Josh Reed   70  
WR Roscoe Parrish   20  
PK Rian Lindell 3 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Bills have made a dramatic turn-around this year somewhat hidden by a record that includes losses to DEN (one point), @PIT, @NE and DAL (by one point). With the right schedule, this team could easily have been 6-2 or better. The defense is underrated and while the passing game varies from week to week, at least Lynch has turned into a nice draft pick from last April. The Patriots away on the other side of this week so getting the win here allows the Bills to taste a winning record for at least one week.

Quarterback: With Trent Edwards nursing his injured wrist, J.P. Losman took the much treasured start against the Bengals and had a season high 295 yards and one score with one interception. He has been named the starter again this week and evidently finally remembers to just throw the ball to Lee Evans at every opportunity. If Losman has any sense of timing at all, he will start this week and then let Edwards go against the Patriots and Jaguars.

Losman only threw for 83 yards and one touchdown in Miami but later had 200 yards and three scores in Buffalo in week 15 of last season.

Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch has been impressive as a rookie and while he always had around 70 yards or more each week, he had not topped the 100 rushing yard mark. On Sunday, Lynch took 29 carries against the Bengals and gained 153 yards. He also scored once for the fifth time this year. As if that wasn't enough, Lynch also tossed a halfback option pass to tight end Robert Royal as well. That was the first time a Bills running back had pulled that trick off since 1981. Lynch is now involved in the offense enough that they use him on trick plays.

Wide Receivers: It required a match-up against a horrible secondary, but Losman finally started connecting with Lee Evans and gave him a season high 165 yards on nine catches and one score on Sunday. Over the last two weeks, Evans has 303 receiving yards and two scores. He only had 211 yards over the first six games and never scored. Roscoe Parrish suffered a bruised quadriceps last week but I will project for him and update if he cannot play.

Evans had three receptions for 67 yards and a score in the home game against the Fins last year but later only turned in one catch for four yards in Miami.

Tight Ends: Robert Royal had his first touchdown catch of the year on Sunday but it came from Lynch on a trick play. He a safe bet for two catches and maybe 20 yards in most weeks.

Match Against the Defense: The Dolphins have yet to win a game and each week it is up to the opponent to decide how best to beat them. That should mean a solid game for Lynch this week with nearly 100 yards and one score and even Losman should turn in decent passing yardage against the #31 team against quarterbacks. Look for one score that favors Evans of course. Anything else would be gravy and since this is the Dolphins - there could be much more gravy.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 32 22 25 18 18 13
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 31 21 25 10 29 21

 

Miami Dolphins (0-8)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @WAS 13-16 +3 35
2 DAL 20-37 +3.5 40.5
3 @NYJ 28-31 +3 35.5
4 OAK 17-35 -3.5 40
5 @HOU 19-22 +5.5 43
6 @CLE 31-41 +4 45
7 NE 28-49 +17 51
8 NYG 10-13 +9.5 48
9 BYE - - -
10 BUF   +3 41
11 @PHI 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @PIT 26-Nov MON 8:30 PM
13 NYJ 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @BUF 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 BAL 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @NE 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 CIN 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
MIA vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Cleo Lemon 20   160,1
RB Jesse Chatman 60 10  
TE David Martin   20  
WR Derek Hagan   30  
WR Marty Booker   40  
WR Ted Ginn Jr.   40,1  
PK Jay Feeley 1 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: Nothing like having a bye week to reflect back over the worst half season in the history of the Dolphins. Now that the Fins have lost Trent Green and Ronnie Brown and traded away Chris Chambers, it is the Lemon-Chatman-somebody show that scored ten points in London during the last game. While that may have been a season low for the offense, with all the players back, it may be about as good as it gets in future games this year. The Dolphins are now the team that everyone prays to see on their schedule.

Quarterback: After three games as the starter, Cleo Lemon has produced three scores but two came against Cleveland in the first game and he's been getting worse with every week. The trading of Chris Chambers only makes his continuing low production a likely reality despite the Fins needing to throw in every game. Lemon has been off on his bye week but it wasn't rest that he needs, it's decent receivers.

Running Backs: While Jesse Chatman gained 79 yards on 16 carries in London, that's no measuring stick for what to expect this year. That was his first game of the season with more than seven carries and he's hardly going to offer reliable fantasy production this year. On the plus side, Lemon did use him for three catches so he will have more value in a points per reception league. Patrick Cobbs had just four carries in the previous game but gained 19 yards. His use could increase as the season progresses.

Wide Receivers: In rain-soaked England, the Dolphins did not throw much and only Marty Booker (3-28) and Ted Ginn Jr. (1-21) had any catches but at least Ginn finally had his first NFL touchdown in the first game played without Chris Chambers. Minimal fantasy value here and starter Derek Hagen did not even have a pass thrown to him.

Tight Ends: David Martin missed week eight because of a strained groin but in most weeks Lemon has relied on his for around three catches for 20 yards. Justin Peele had a career best six catches for 42 yards in England when he replaced Martin but it's not likely the start of any trend.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills may have lower rankings for their defense, but the reality is that those were gained going against teams like NE, DAL and PIT. There is no connection between those teams and Miami outside of the interstate road system. The Bills just shut down the Bengals rushing attack and held Thomas Jones twice to less than 70 rushing yards for a more fair comparison. Expect barely7 moderate rushing yardage from Jesse Chatman this week in a game that their opponent really wants to win and that will not take them lightly.

Lemon goes against a secondary that should allow one passing score but likely no more. Only NE, DAL and CIN had more than one passing touchdown against them this year. That could go anywhere but I will tip it towards Ginn just to award it to someone. This game should remind the Dolphins what to expect without any offensive stars for the rest of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 13 7 24 13 15 32
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 25 19 27 18 14 4

The Huddle
WEEK 10
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday night
Monday
On Bye
HOU, NE
*updated
NYJ, TB

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