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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

Prediction: JAC 10, TEN 20

Update: David Garrard is back to practice on a limited basis and has not been ruled out this week. I am not adding him in but he could be a game time decision. Marcedes Lewis has been limited in practice because of a sprained knee. I am removing him from the projections and using George Wrighster who would likely start in any case. Lewis may not play this week.

Chris Brown may not play as he as practiced fully on Wednesday but was limited on Thursday because his ankle was too sore. Add in that Chris Henry has appealed his suspension and will be available and I am adding him into the projections. LenDale White has been limited in practice because of his toe but expects to play without limitation this week.

This is a big game since the Jaguars have now been passed by the Titans who already have a head to head advantage over them. The Titans have won their last three games while the Jaguars come off a thrashing in New Orleans that proved not having a quarterback really does matter in the end. The Titans already won the season opener 13-10 in Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC 17-7 -2 35
6 HOU 37-17 -7 37
7 IND 7-29 +3.5 45
8 @TB 24-23 -4 32.5
9 @NO 24-41 +3.5 40
10 @TEN   +4 35
11 SD 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 BUF 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @IND 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CAR 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @PIT 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 OAK 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Quinn Gray     170
RB Fred Taylor 50    
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 40,1 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis 40
TE George Wrighster   30  
WR Dennis Northcutt   30  
WR Ernest Wilford   20  
WR Reggie Williams   40  
PK John Carney 1 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars were flying high but losing two of the last three have sent them tumbling back in the standings and the loss of OG Chris Naeole will not help the running game since he just landed on injured reserve. The team also has suspended OT Richard Collier for getting arrested on Saturday morning. The most disturbing of all is that the defense has given up an average of 31 points per game over the last three weeks and couple that with Quinn Gray as quarterback and the results are predictable.

Quarterback: There is a chance that David Garrard returns this week from his high ankle sprain but that won't be determined until later in the week. In his place the last two weeks Quinn Gray was horrible against the Buccaneers but did manage to throw for 354 yards and two scores against the Saints who just are not used to having ample trash time to defend in games. Gray did throw three interceptions though and the game was never in doubt. I will project for Gray to start and update if needed.

Garrard passed for 204 yards and one score against the Titans in the season opener.

Running Backs: Just when it appeared that Maurice Jones-Drew was getting back on track after scoring for three straight weeks, the last two games - both on the road - only saw Jones-Drew with a total of 15 carries for 76 yards and no scores. This week is the third straight road game and comes against probably the best defense that Jones-Drew has faced this year. Fred Taylor has been the better runner since he always ends with more than 50 rushing yards each week but he still has yet to score a touchdown this season.

Taylor only gained 16 yards on six carries while Jones-Drew turned in 32 yards on seven runs against the Titans this year. Jones-Drew also had 28 yards on three receptions.

Wide Receivers: Reggie Williams is not only the most productive wideout for the Jaguars, he's also the most inconsistent. He comes off a 128 yard game with one score against the Saints but only had one catch for 17 yards over the two previous games. He has four scores on the season while no other wideout has more than one. But forget about last week - it was his first with more than 41 yards this year.

The best receiver in the previous meeting with the Titans was John Broussard who had a touchdown and just two catches for 55 yards. Dennis Northcutt had 57 yards on four catches but he's only had one catch for 15 yards in the two games started by Gray. That one catch was a touchdown though.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis comes off his best game of the year but that was only 46 yards on three catches and he still has yet to score a touchdown.

Lewis turned in four receptions for 35 yards against the Titans this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars had problems on offense in the season opener against the Titans and that was with a full, healthy crew playing at home. This week look for only moderate rushing numbers split by Jones-Drew and Taylor but a decent chance for one rushing score.

Gray will struggle again this week if he starts and even if Garrard does make it back, that won't likely produce any significant numbers this week. It is unlikely that Chris Brown is going to come up with 175 rushing yards in this game as he did in the opener so this should be a defensive fight with less need to pass by the Jaguars.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 21 11 20 16 26 14
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 5 3 16 6 7 18


Tennessee Titans (6-2)
Homefield: LP Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @JAC 13-10 +6.5 37.5
2 IND 20-22 +7 46
3 @NO 31-14 +4 45
4 BYE - - -
5 ATL 20-13 -8 41
6 @TB 10-13 +2.5 37
7 @HOU 38-36 OFF OFF
8 OAK 13-9 -7 41
9 CAR 20-7 -4 40
10 JAC   -4 35
11 @DEN 19-Nov MON 8:30 PM
12 @CIN 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 HOU 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 SD 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @KC 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYJ 23-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
17 @IND 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
TEN vs JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young 20   120
RB Lendale White 70,1 20  
RB Chris Henry 40 10  
TE Bo Scaife   30  
WR Brandon Jones   20  
WR Eric Moulds   20  
WR Roydell Williams   20  
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Titans are on a three game winning streak and while the Jaguars are playing in their third straight road game, the Titans are having their third home game.

Quarterback: Vince Young continues to struggle greatly in his second season and has not thrown a score since week three. He has never had more than 184 passing yards in any game and his rushing yardage usually ends up around 20 yards per game - rather inconsequential. He scored on a run last week for only the second time this year. Young has just been off on his reads and throws this year and has been saved by a rushing game that has improved and a defense that has been stellar at home this year.

Young only had 78 passing yards against the Jaguars this year but added 22 yards on 11 runs with one touchdown.

Running Backs: LenDale White has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the last three games and has five touchdowns on the year. Chris Henry is facing a four-game suspension for taking a banned substance and while it hasn't been made clear if he is disputing it or when it starts, I will not add him to the projections. Henry was impressive in his first two games but only had three carries for a net three yard loss last week. White has taken over the load here and is helping to win games each week. If Henry takes his suspension now, he can make it back for the final four weeks of the season.

Chris Brown has been out for two games with an ankle sprain but may be back this week for back-up duty. He's not worth relying on yet.

This was the season opener when Brown ran for 175 yards on 19 carries while White only gained 66 yards on 18 runs.

Wide Receivers: With Vince Young as the starter, this unit has been without any fantasy value for over a month now. There have only been two scores thrown to wideouts this year and none since week two of the season. Brandon Jones returned last week after missing three games with a knee injury and had no catches against the Panthers on Sunday.

Tight Ends: The ever-so minor good news in the passing game is that Bo Scaife has been solid over the last month with around 35 yards or so every week. He has only one score on the year and that was five weeks ago.

Match Against the Defense: While Drew Brees threw for 445 yards and three scores against the Jaguars last week, that would almost be equal to the total of Young's last five games combined. Young had very few yards in the season opener against Jags and has shown that it was merely the start of a trend this year.

Where this game gains interest is with the Titans rushing which will be almost entirely LenDale White this week. The Jaguars have not allowed more than 85 yards to any other runner since that first game though six different players have rushed in a score. Look for a moderate to good yardage game from White with one score unless Young scores it himself. I also like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 29 10 28 25 1 7
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 24 15 15 27 12 17

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

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