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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

Prediction: MIN 17, GBP 23

Update: The Vikings are a mess to predict this week since Tarvaris Jackson remains a possibility to play but may be held out because of his concussion. Sidney Rice was limited on Wednesday and held out on Thursday because of his hamstring strain so I am lowering his projections and he may not play. Bobby Wade is expected to start but has been limited in practice with a sore knee and Troy Williamson may end up inactive this week because he left last week because of his grandmother's death and wasn't cleared to leave. He was fined a game check. Just a mess. But hey, look at that Peterson kid run...

On the Packers side, Ryan Grant has been limited in practice because of his concussion but has been cleared to play. Brandon Jackson is expected to play a role this week though. I am not changing his already low projections but be aware that they could be even less with Jackson in the mix.

This is a replay of the game that the Packers won 23-16 in week four in Minnesota. The Vikings are just 1-3 on the road and now make no pretense that they are anything more than Adrian Peterson and his posse of 52 players. The Packers come off an impressive road win in Kansas City and need a win here to stay ahead of the Lions. The only question is can they stop Peterson?

Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
Homefield: Metrodome
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 ATL 24-3 -3 36
2 @DET 17-20 +3 42.5
3 @KC 10-13 +3 33.5
4 GB 16-23 +1 38
5 BYE - - -
6 @CHI 34-31 +5 35.5
7 @DAL 14-24 +9.5 46
8 PHI 16-23 +1 37.5
9 SD 35-17 +7 41
10 @GB   +6.5 40.5
11 OAK 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @NYG 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 DET 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @SF 9-Dec SUN 4:05 PM
15 CHI 17-Dec MON 8:30 PM
16 WAS 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @DEN 30-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
MIN at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Tarvaris Jackson 20   140,1
RB Chester Taylor 30 10  
RB Adrian Peterson 120,1 30  
TE Visanthe Shiancoe   20  
WR Troy Williamson   20  
WR Bobby Wade   40,1  
WR Sidney Rice   20  
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Vikings come off their most exciting win of the year when they unleashed Adrian Peterson and ended up with the all-time greatest rushing yard record in the history of the NFL - pretty heady stuff and remarkable for an offense that really doesn't have anything else going for it. The defense remains one of the best in the league and if Peterson can just come up with a mere 296 rushing yards every week, this team is going places. Sure that is hard to imagine, but so is a rookie rushing against the #7 rush defense in the league and gaining more than anyone ever has.

Quarterback: Meanwhile, back in the passing game the Vikings are hurting for healthy bodies. Tarvaris Jackson suffered a concussion last week and Kelly Holcomb missed the game with a neck injury. That left Brooks Bollinger as the last man standing and he threw for 95 yards and a score because everyone was watching Peterson. The Vikings may try to sign a veteran free agent to help but hope that Jackson can play this week. I will project for the woozy Jackson as the starter but will update as warranted.

Holcomb was the starter in week four when the Packers visited and threw for 258 yards and one score. He was also sacked five times.

Running Backs: Wow. That says it all.

Adrian Peterson rushed for 296 yards on 30 carries to set the all-time single game rushing record and he scored three times. That is not even his first game with 200+ rushing yards and three scores. The certain Rookie of the Year currently is on pace to top 2000 rushing yards. The Vikings even set a franchise record last week with 378 total rushing yards because Chester Taylor ran nine times for 60 yards and a score as well.

Peterson ran for 112 yards on just 12 carries against the Packers this year. Taylor was limited to just eight carries for 40 yards. Chances are high that Peterson will get more than 12 carries this time. And his other game over 200 yards was on the road when he played in Chicago who now feel pretty good about themselves because they limited him to only 224 yards.

Wide Receivers: This time the Vikings will not have Holcomb and Jackson has been deadly this year (in the sense he kills the fantasy value of all wideouts). Bobby Wade was the best wideout in the previous match-up with the Packers, gaining 83 yards on five catches. Sidney Rice also had six catches for 75 yards and a score in that game. If Bollinger plays, the results wouldn't be that much better anyway though defenses are reacting to Peterson so much that the Vikings passing game has to get a bump thanks to play action passes.

Tight Ends: Vishante Shiancoe has a nice vantage point to watch Peterson, but he does little in any given week.

Match Against the Defense: The Vikings are on the road this week and the Packers did limit the Vikes to 152 rushing yards in the first meeting in Minnesota. And there is no way that Peterson will ever meet a defense that underrates him. But that 112 yard effort that Peterson had the last time they met was also the most allowed by the Packers defense this year. Look for a solid game here with one score and 100+ yards, but it shouldn't be nearly so gaudy as last week.

Jackson's passing should get a little bump from Peterson running so well but he is still Tarvaris Jackson. This is an important game for the Packers who will not take it lightly and should put up a decent defense. Do not expect more than one passing score here and even that may not happen if Peterson gets going. The Packers are weak against tight ends but Shiancoe has too little use to be considered.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 30 1 30 28 19 3
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 22 11 3 32 11 5


Green Bay Packers (7-1)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 PHI 16-13 +3 43.5
2 @NYG 35-13 +2.5 38.5
3 SD 31-24 +5 43
4 @MIN 23-16 -1 38
5 CHI 20-27 -3 41
6 WAS 17-14 -3 40.5
7 BYE - - -
8 @DEN 19-13 +3 44
9 @KC 33-22 +2.5 38.5
10 MIN   -6.5 40.5
11 CAR 18-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
12 @DET 22-Nov THU 12:30 PM
13 @DAL 29-Nov THU 8:15 PM
14 OAK 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @STL 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @CHI 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 DET 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
GBP vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre     310,2
RB Ryan Grant 40 20  
RB Vernand Morency 20 30  
TE Donald Lee   60  
WR Donald Driver   80,1  
WR Greg Jennings   90,1  
WR James Jones   30  
PK Mason Crosby 3 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Packers are enjoying a magic year despite having the youngest roster in the league led by the oldest starting quarterback. The win in Denver and Kansas City proved the Packers were hardly just a Lambeau phenomena and with their lone loss to divisional rival Chicago, they cannot afford a loss this week thanks to the pesky Lions. The amazing fact is that of the remaining schedule, the Packers are likely to be favored in every game other than the one in Dallas which is looming as the lighter version of NE-IND.

Quarterback: Going into this season, Brett Favre needed 3800 passing yards to surpass Dan Marino as the all-time leader in that category and basically that represented him repeating his 2006 season. At the midpoint of the season, Favre already has five games over 300 yards and is on a pace to throw for 4800 yards this year. He has topped 300 yards in five of the last six games.

Favre already threw for 344 yards and two scores in Minnesota this year.

Running Backs: After taking over as the starter last week, Ryan Grant only gained 55 yards on 19 carries and suffered a possible concussion in Kansas City. Grant gained 104 yards on 22 carries in Denver to secure the starting job but found the running far tougher against a quality defense like he will be facing this week. HC Mike McCarthy said that he expects that Grant will be fine to play the Vikings on Sunday.

The Packers had virtually no rushing game in the previous meeting with the Vikings and had only 39 rushing yards in total.

Wide Receivers: The scary part of Favre's big passing numbers is that he still doesn't really favor one receiver over another. Donald Driver comes off a solid 99 yard game in Kansas City but only had less than 60 yards in the four previous weeks. Greg Jennings has been great with scoring and had a season high 141 yards last week but also has games of just 20 and 42 yards in the past month. James Jones only managed 32 yards on Sunday but was coming off a 107 yard effort the previous week. This unit gets the job done but swaps out which player will have a big game nearly every week.

Jennings and Jones both scored against the Vikings this year while Driver led the team with seven catches for 58 yards.

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks remains out but Donald Lee has done so well that the Packers re-signed him to a four-year contract extension. He had four catches for 66 yards against the Vikings earlier this season.

Match Against the Defense: The Vikings rushing defense is as dominating as any in the NFL so expect a minimal game here from Grant with no scores. Favre already had a big game against the Vikes earlier this year and their secondary is the weakness that all teams look to exploit. This is Favre at home in a big game - expect big numbers.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 7 24 4 8 5 6
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 4 29 22 16 8

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night
On Bye

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