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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

Prediction: KC 0, IND 24

Update: Marvin Harrison, yet again, is a gametime decision. I am not adding him into the projections but he is not yet ruled out this week and may get some playing time. He has not practiced this week so far, so the chances appear very small he will have much of a role if he even plays.

The Chiefs come off a three game losing streak and head to Indianapolis where the Colts are licking their wounds from the loss to the Chargers that gives them a - gasp - losing streak. Both teams have injury problems but only one was good in the first place.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 3-20 +3 38
2 @CHI 10-20 +12 34.5
3 MIN 13-10 -3 33.5
4 @SD 30-16 +13 38.5
5 JAC 7-17 +2 35
6 CIN 27-20 +3 42
7 @OAK 12-10 +3 37.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 22-33 -2.5 38.5
10 DEN 11-27 -3 37.5
11 @IND   +15 44
12 OAK 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 SD 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @DEN 9-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
15 TEN 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @DET 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @NYJ 30-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
KCC at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Brodie Croyle     140
RB Priest Holmes 50    
TE Tony Gonzalez   40  
WR Eddie Kennison   30  
WR Samie Parker   20  
WR Dwayne Bowe   40  
PK Dave Rayner nah    
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs are switching to Brodie Croyle this week and HC Herman Edwards said he was planning on it even without the neck injury to Huard. He also said that he realized Croyle would make mistakes which all reads like he knows the Chiefs will lose this week anyway so why not throw Croyle into the fire? Priest Holmes is back as starter but so far doesn't make anyone forget about Larry Johnson as happened when those roles were reversed.

Quarterback: The future is now with the Chiefs since Brodie Croyle takes over as the starter this week. He was supposed to win the job in training camp and failed greatly but now there is no other option and the Chiefs might as well see what he has. He did complete 17 of 30 passes for 162 yards against the Broncos last week and was sacked only twice. At least Dwight Freeney is out this week.

Running Backs:Priest Holmes redux went against the soft Denver rushing defense last week but only gained 65 yards on 20 carries and looked suspiciously like a one-time stud who turned 34 and wanted to play football again after missing two seasons. Kolby Smith was mentioned as deserving a significant role as well but evidently significant means two rushes for two yards in Edwards world. Holmes had his longest run of 11 yards and looked like he was running in mud on most plays. This may not be pretty this week.

Wide Receivers: Eddie Kennison returned for his first catch of the year but ended with just 34 yards on three receptions while the rookie Dwayne Bowe gained 105 yards on nine catches that said getting Dre Bly was not going to be magic for the Broncos. Bowe missed most of the previous week with a hamstring issue. He's better now. He just has to get used to Croyle who completed four passes to him for only 27 yards.

Tight Ends: Croyle only completed two passes for nine yards to Tony Gonzalez though he did throw a total of eight passes at him. Unfortunately for Gonzo owners, last week was his worst of the year and may not improve much with Croyle as the starter even though he still throws most passes his way.

Match Against the Defense: The Colts are plenty banged up and Dwight Freeney is expected to miss this week (and probably three after that) but the Chiefs with Croyle and Holmes in Indianapolis where the Colts are stewing after two losses is just not where the team wants to be this week. No opposing runner has rushed in a touchdown in Indy this year and most have less than 50 rushing yards. Expect little from Holmes this week.

Croyle draws a bad straw to be a first time starter. Without Freeney playing, Croyle may not get bashed as often but then again - maybe he will. The secondary for the Colts has held most opponents well below 200 passing yards this year and Croyle will be doing well enough to get 150. This could be a shutout.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 30 27 5 26 16
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 2 9 1 9 3 13


Indianapolis Colts (7-2)
Homefield: RCA Dome
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NO 41-10 -6 51.5
2 @TEN 22-20 -7 46
3 @HOU 30-24 -6 47.5
4 DEN 38-20 -10 46.5
5 TB 33-14 -9 45
6 BYE - - -
7 @JAC 29-7 -3.5 45
8 @CAR 31-7 -6.5 45
9 NE 20-24 +5.5 56.5
10 @SD 21-23 -3.5 49
11 KC   -15 44
12 @ATL 22-Nov THU 8:15 PM
13 JAC 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @BAL 9-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
15 @OAK 16-Dec SUN 4:05 PM
16 HOU 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 TEN 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
IND vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     250,2
RB Joseph Addai 120, 1 10  
TE Dallas Clark   50,1  
WR Aaron Moorehead   30  
WR Reggie Wayne   100,1  
WR Craphonso Thorpe   30  
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Wow. Nothing like giving up 14 points to Darren Sproles in a game where the Colts did not even have enough healthy players to dress the permitted 45. Still it all came down to a simple field goal and even that did not work. Bad mojo abounded in week 10 and this Sunday is a chance to get a win without all the drama of the last two weeks. Losing Dwight Freeney for the next month because of a foot injury certainly ideal, but the schedule won't have an opponent with a decent passing game until maybe week 16 against Houston anyway.

Quarterback: With Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez all out last week, Peyton Manning looked like a five-star chef working in McDonalds when the school bus pulls into the parking lot.. He still managed to gain 328 passing yards and score twice anyway and has scored in every game this year. He should get back some of the wounded help this week but at home against these Chiefs he could still cook a mean Quarter Pounder with much less.

Running Backs: Joseph Addai comes off his worst game of the year with only 56 yards on 22 carries on the rain slicked Qualcomm field. He lost his footing all too often and last week was surreal anyway. Addai has never gained less than 112 rushing yards in a home game this year and usually scores once. Kenton Keith only shows up for four carries each week now that Addai is healthy. The biggest concern for this game is that the Colts get a healthy lead and just let Keith take the load later in the game.

Wide Receivers: HC Tony Dungy said that Marvin Harrison could have played last week were it a playoff game and he said the same thing the previous week against the Patriots. The reality is that Harrison hasn't had a meaningful game since week three and most are wondering just how bruised is that knee anyway? I will count him out this week until it is clear that he will play.

Reggie Wayne may be the last man standing but that still has produced nice numbers this year. He comes off a ten catch, 140 yard game in San Diego with one score and he's already scored six times this year and had four games over 100 yards. He is averaging 96 yards per week and is on track for over 1500 yards on the season.

Aaron Moorehead has replaced Harrison so far and done very little. He had only four catches for 39 yards as the starter in week ten while Craphonso Thorpe turned in five receptions for 51 yards from the slot.

Tight Ends: The Colts elected to hold Dallas Clark out last week to recover from his concussion and Bryan Fletcher replaced him with a career best eight catches for 55 yards. I will project for Clark to return this week since his concussion wasn't reported to be that severe.

Match Against the Defense: This is a game that will largely be played by game situation and less about the matchups of strengths and weaknesses. The Colts should run against the Chiefs well if only because of a large number of carries. Addai could have a very nice game here if they do not pull him for Keith eventually.

Manning is a solid two score, 250 yard passer at home so expect that much but likely not a lot more. The Chiefs offense looks like it will be struggling and the Colts will elect to use the run more this week. I really love both Clark and Wayne to get scores this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 6 2 13 3 6 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 9 14 14 11 22 29

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

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