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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

Prediction: SD 17, JAX 23

Beating the Colts helped erase the memory of what Peterson did in Minnesota but the Chargers are only 1-3 in road games this year and the Jaguars are just 2-2 at home. This is a big game for both franchises since they are currently favorites to reach the playoffs. Coin flip game here that should go down to the wire.

San Diego Chargers (5-4)
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 CHI 14-3 -5.5 42.5
2 @NE 14-38 +3 47
3 @GB 24-31 -5 43
4 KC 16-30 -13 38.5
5 @DEN 41-3 -1 43
6 OAK 28-14 -9.5 44
7 BYE - - -
8 HOU 35-10 -11 45
9 @MIN 17-35 -7 41
10 IND 23-21 +3.5 49
11 @JAC   +3 41
12 BAL 25-Nov SUN 4:15 PM
13 @KC 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 @TEN 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 DET 16-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
16 DEN 24-Dec MON 8:00 PM
17 @OAK 30-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
SDC at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers     220,1
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 70,1 30  
TE Antonio Gates   80,1  
WR Vincent Jackson   30  
WR Legedu Naanee   20  
WR Chris Chambers   50  
PK Nate Kaeding 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: No doubt Darren Sproles got the game ball last week with his two return touchdowns and the win kept the Chargers with a one game lead in the AFC West over Denver. There's still plenty of football left to play and the rematches with each divisional foe remain but the passing game here is not going to a help staying on top. The defense has wavered between bad to almost good but the passing game has just taken a nose dive over the last month.

Quarterback: Phillip Rivers has no middle ground. He either throws for two or three scores in a game or he has little yardage and no touchdowns. Oddly enough, three of four games with scores came in road efforts and produced his best passing numbers. That gives this week some hope in a fantasy sense but Rivers has been more consistent with interceptions (10) than he has scoring. He has also lost five fumbles this year and over the last four games has remained with less than 200 passing yards each week. Rivers is not done struggling this year.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson is currently tied for #1 in the NFL with eight rushing scores but he has only topped 100 rushing yards twice this year and his worst efforts have always been on the road where four games have only seen him average 53 rushing yards per game and score only one rushing touchdown. His receiving yardage tends to rise away from San Diego but still he has been much less productive on the road this year. His best road game was just 67 rushing yards against the Vikings.

Wide Receivers: Chris Chambers cooled down last week with only two catches for 17 yards in a game the Chargers hoped they could win without passing. Now the wideout picture is as muddled as ever because Chambers is joined by Vincent Jackson and the rookie Legedu Naanee. Buster Davis hasn't played since week six and even Kassim Osgood shows up on the rare occasion. Throw in Malcolm Floyd in the background and the low passing numbers and numerous receivers means that the wideouts here have no reliable fantasy value - not even Chambers.

Tight Ends: Not only has Antonio Gates been vastly underused in the last two games with a total of just four catches for 36 yards, he is about to be passed by Kellen Winslow as the most productive fantasy tight end. Last week was no barometer in a surreal game during bad weather but Gates has rarely gone a couple of games with such minimal fantasy numbers. Ask any Gates owner for confirmation on this.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars at home have been very tough to run against though they will give up the odd rushing touchdown. Tomlinson should score once here but settled for yet another road game with lesser yardage. Adding in receiving yardage should give him a decent game but a big effort is unlikely.

Rivers needs to step up to win this game but he has been a flop for the last four games and the Jags at home have only given up two passing scores this year. Expect better than average yardage here but only one score that almost has to go to Gates. Tight ends have been productive against them this year and Gates needs a good game.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 26 5 32 4 30 2
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 11 16 26 14 11


Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC 17-7 -2 35
6 HOU 37-17 -7 37
7 IND 7-29 +3.5 45
8 @TB 24-23 -4 32.5
9 @NO 24-41 +3.5 40
10 @TEN 28-13 +4 35
11 SD   -3 41
12 BUF 25-Nov SUN 1:00 PM
13 @IND 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CAR 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @PIT 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 OAK 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 20   210,1
RB Fred Taylor 60 10  
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 80,1 40  
TE Marcedes Lewis   30,1  
WR Dennis Northcutt   60  
WR Ernest Wilford   30  
WR Reggie Williams   20  
PK John Carney 3 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Titans helped sooth the pain from the loss in New Orleans and the Jaguars are only one game behind the Colts with a week 13 opportunity to known them down the final peg. There is an outside chance that Josh Scobee could also return this week after missing almost the entire season with a quad injury and the Jags hope to get David Garrard back as well from his high ankle sprain.

Quarterback: According to HC Jack del Rio, David Garrard could have played last week against the Titans but the team decided to give him one more week of rest. Garrard has been solid with one passing score each week until the injury in week seven and also added a rushing ability that the team lost when they shifted to Quinn Gray. The Jags went 2-1 with Gray at the helm but Garrard is a welcome addition back.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor finally broke his season-long drought with a touchdown in Tennessee last week but he still plods along with around 50 or 60 rushing yards each week. Maurice Jones-Drew comes off his second 100+ yard rushing effort of the year and had a season high 19 carries to get there against the Titans. He scored his fifth touchdown on the year and comes back home after a very tough three game road trek that say his rushing numbers nose-dive with Gray as the quarterback.

Even Greg Jones scored last week but he is a nonfactor for carries and yardage. The Jags roll him out on short yardage carries at the goal line on occasion. He only has two scores on the year.

Wide Receivers: Other than Reggie Williams who had a freak big game of 128 yards and a score in New Orleans, the rest of the wideouts here would definitely welcome back Garrard. Dennis Northcutt has a total of two catches for 19 yards over the three weeks without Garrard though one was for a score. This unit does well enough to post marginal numbers with Garrard as the quarterback. Quinn killed even that level of mediocrity.

Tight Ends: When Garrard plays, Marcedes Lewis typically turns in around 30 yards in most weeks though he has never scored this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Chargers are giving up 4.7 yards per carry to running backs this year but only around four yards ignoring that monster game by Peterson. But the Jags bring one of the top rushing offenses into this game and on the road is where the Chargers have been much softer against the run. Look for healthy numbers from Taylor and Jones-Drew with one score but nothing too big here unless the game situation greatly favors the Jaguars.

The Chargers pass defense is also not as good as the ranking may suggest since games against Sage Rosenfels and the Minnesota duo of Jackson and Bollinger brought the average down. Garrard is not likely to have a big game because he never does, but he should maintain his scoring streak with at least one touchdown and that should favor either Northcutt or Lewis the most.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 21 4 22 17 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 20 19 25 29 6 22

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

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