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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: BUF 10, JAC 23

The Bills come off their second smacking by the Patriots but had four straight wins prior and the defense has been outstanding whenever the Patriots are not around. They are only 2-2 on the road though and the Jaguars are on a two game winning streak and yet are just 3-2 at home. Both teams are probably better than their records but the home venue here should be enough to lock down a win for the Jags.

The Bills won 27-24 when they hosted the Jaguars during week 12 of last year.

Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 14-15 +3.5 37
2 @PIT 3-26 +10 37.5
3 @NE 7-38 +16.5 41
4 NYJ 17-14 +3 37.5
5 DAL 24-25 +10 42
6 BYE - - -
7 BAL 19-14 +3 35
8 @NYJ 13-3 +3 37
9 CIN 33-21 +1 43.5
10 @MIA 13-10 -3 41
11 NE 10-56 +15.5 46.5
12 @JAC   +7.5 36
13 @WAS 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 MIA 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @CLE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYG 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @PHI 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
BUF at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman     180,1
RB Anthony Thomas 40    
TE Michael Gaines   20  
WR Lee Evans   60  
WR Josh Reed   30,1  
WR Roscoe Parrish   50  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: If the Bills played in the NFC, they'd be viewed far more favorably out of the immense all-encompassing shadow cast by the Patriots in the AFC East. But times could be more difficult until Marshawn Lynch returns and the schedule is less than kind with three road trips in the next month. There's still plenty of improvement that this team can make but the nucleus is forming and even a couple of more losses should not diminish the strides that the team has made this year.

Quarterback: The Bills have already named J.P. Losman as the starter again this week and while he has hardly been a passing machine, he has scored once in three of his last four games. The yardage has remained safely below 200 yards in all but one game but Losman is the better choice going against a solid Jags secondary this week.

Losman only had 169 yards and no scores against the Jaguars last season.

Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch was a pre-game scratch last week because of his severely sprained ankle and he may miss this week as well. In his place, Anthony Thomas took the start against the Patriots and predictably got crushed by gaining only 31 yards on 11 carries. There was a reason why the Bills spent their first round pick on Lynch and Thomas should show it again this week.

I am assuming that Lynch remains out but will update if warranted.

Wide Receivers: The Bills have precious little passing or scoring anyway and the wideouts here rarely matter outside of Lee Evans who has a few good games this year. He has only scored twice though and those came against the soft defenses of the Bengals and Jets. Other than those two games which are getting smaller in the rear view mirror, Evans typically contributes 50 to 70 receiving yards in most games. Roscoe Parrish scored his first touchdown of the year last week but it came on his only catch in the game.

Evans had five receptions for 58 yards against the Jags last year.

Tight Ends: Doesn't matter if it is Michael Gaines or Robert Royal, you have a one in 16 chance of starting either when they have a touchdown and there won't be more than about 30 yards involved if that.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars will give up a rushing score on occasion but there is never much yardage involved, particularly at home. Add in that Thomas may be the starter and that's more than enough to skip on starting a Bills running back this week.

Losman faces a secondary that has given up one passing score in almost every game but once has an opponent thrown for two. Expect sub-200 yardage this week and one score that should end up with a player other than Evans who will be blanketed. Since Parrish just scored, I will give it to Reed but it could go anywhere.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 31 25 27 26 27 21
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 22 13 14 28 12 6


Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC 17-7 -2 35
6 HOU 37-17 -7 37
7 IND 7-29 +3.5 45
8 @TB 24-23 -4 32.5
9 @NO 24-41 +3.5 40
10 @TEN 28-13 +4 35
11 SD 24-17 -3 41
12 BUF   -7.5 36
13 @IND 2-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
14 CAR 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 @PIT 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 OAK 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     180,1
RB Fred Taylor 80 10  
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,1 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Dennis Northcutt   50,1  
WR Ernest Wilford   50  
WR Reggie Williams   20  
PK J Josh Scobee 3 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars have David Garrard back and are only one game behind the Colts with a chance to tie them in week 13. That'll be a chore with a game in Pittsburgh remaining but the Jags are healthy again and the defense has been top notch at least in home games. And particularly against lesser teams like the Bills this week. The biggest problem here is to not overlook the Bills and get caught in a trap game.

Quarterback: After missing three games with a high ankle sprain, David Garrard was none the worst for the layoff when he tossed two touchdowns against the Chargers and had no turnovers or sacks. He's been good for at least one score in every game he has completed this year but usually hangs in around the 200 yard mark in most games.

Garrard threw for 132 yards and two scores in Buffalo last year.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor remains a solid back with around 60 to 80 rushing yards in most weeks and yet he only has one score on the season. Maurice Jones-Drew has six scores on the year and four came in home games. He has topped 100 rushing yards twice and completes the 1-2 punch with Taylor.

Jones-Drew ran for 78 yards and a score on just seven carries in Buffalo last year and added five catches for 47 yards.. Taylor gained 101 yards on 22 rushes.

Wide Receivers: The wideouts here are a rather unproductive set thanks to a good rushing game and defense but Reggie Williams easily leads all wide receivers with six scores on the season. Problem is that each time he has a big game, it is sandwiched between games with less than 20 yards. He is the closest thing to a reliable receiver for the Jaguars but that only means he is decent about every other week. Ernest Wilford and Dennis Northcutt are the equivalent of productive tight ends.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis comes off his first score of the year and while he has been almost invisible lately, that coincides with the absence of Garrard. For the first half of the year, Lewis was turning in around 30 yards in most games.

Marcedes Lewis had just one catch for one yard in Buffalo last year but it was for a touchdown.

Match Against the Defense: No doubt the rushing game will be getting ample opportunities this week against one of the softer rush defenses - particularly when the Bills are on the road. Expect a very solid game and a score by Jones-Drew and at least nice yardage if not a score for Taylor as well. This definitely has the look of a big game for the duo.

Figure Garrard for his average game with one score because the defense and rushing game should rule this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 5 22 15 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 26 24 27 19 13 5

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

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