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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 17

Update: Jerricho Cotchery has missed practices this week with a finger injury that occurred in practice on Monday. I am removing him from the projections and inserting Brad Smith who would take the #3 with Justin McCareins filling in for Cotchery. Laveranues Coles has been limited in practice this week but is expected to play.

Jesse Chatman has been limited in practice but his ankle and neck injuries are improving and both he and HC Cam Cameron expect Chatman to play this week. I am adding him back in and removing Patrick Cobbs but there is a chance that either Cobbs or newly-signed Samkon Gado could have a role as well. The Jets porous rush defense should allow Chatman a decent game even if he does share some carries.

Could this be it? Maybe? The Fins have lost all their games but are doing so with just three point deficits on the scoreboard and the Jets come in at only 2-9 and are 0-5 on the road. I think this is it. Pop the cork on the champagne, Fins fans! This is almost as big as 1972!

The Jets logged their first win of the season, 31-28, when the Dolphins visited in week two.

New York Jets (2-9)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NE 14-38 +6.5 40.5
2 @BAL 13-20 +9.5 33
3 MIA 31-28 +3 35.5
4 @BUF 14-17 -3 37.5
5 @NYG 24-35 +3 41
6 PHI 9-16 +4.5 43.5
7 @CIN 31-38 +5.5 46.5
8 BUF 3-13 -3 37
9 WAS 20-23 +3.5 35.5
10 BYE - - -
11 PIT 19-16 +9.5 40.5
12 @DAL 3-34 +14.5 47
13 @MIA   +1 38.5
14 CLE 9-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
15 @NE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @TEN 23-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
17 KC 30-Dec SUN 8:15 PM
NYJ at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Kellen Clemens     190,1
RB Thomas Jones 50 10  
TE Chris Baker   20  
WR Laveranues Coles   70,1  
WR Brad Smith   30  
WR Jerricho Cotchery 60
WR Justin McCareins   40  
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: Predictably the Jets were routed in Dallas but this week stands as the best chance for one more win for the rest of the season, barring a big upset trap game. Losing Laveranues Coles to a high ankle sprain was more than this offense can take last week and at 2-9, there's not a lot it can take healthy for that matter. True enough, the Jets did beat the Dolphins by three points but the Jets are still winless on the road.

Quarterback: While Kellen Clemens holds promise for the future, he is going through obviously growing pains and comes off his worst start with only 142 yards in Dallas. But at least he hasn't thrown more than one interception in a game in these last three weeks and is trying to work within what the offense has - which is not a lot when Coles is not around. Clemens was a surprise back in week two when he started against the Ravens in Baltimore and turned in 260 yards and one score but he's done much less in each successive game.

Pennington threw for 124 yards and two scores against the visiting Dolphins.

Running Backs: The problem with Thomas Jones, aside from his complete lack of touchdowns this year, is that he has always disappeared in road games. So ar he has recorded three efforts over 100 rushing yards and each came at home. On the road, he has never had more than 67 rushing yards in a game and averages just 17 carries for 49 yards - around 2.9 yards per carry.

Jones gained 110 yards on 25 carries against the visiting Dolphins this season.

Wide Receivers: Laveranues Coles was held out last week because of a high ankle sprain but he has had ten days to recover by the time this game kicks off. I will hold him out as well until he has practiced and appears likely to play. With Coles gone last week, Jerricho Cotchery only managed two catches for 43 yards and Justin McCareins totaled a mere two receptions for 29 yards replacing Coles.

Coles is expected to practice this week and could be ready for this game. I will assume he can play and update if needed.

Coles only had three catches for 30 yards and one score against the Fins this year while Cotchery settled for 54 yards on five receptions.

Tight Ends: These last three weeks with Clemens has been good for Chris Baker. He has been consistently around 35 to 40 yards in each game and scored against the Steelers in week 11. He's been the most common target for Clemens.

Baker only caught one pass for four yards but scored once in the first meeting with the Dolphins.

Match Against the Defense: Thomas Jones had one of his few decent games this year in the previous matchup with the Dolphins but on the road he has been far worse in every outing. Expect only moderate rushing yards here and his non-scoring streak to remain intact.

Clemens is the starter this time around and faces a secondary that has been as good as no scores allowed and as bad as six passing touchdowns given up. But Clemens has never had more than one score in a game so far and this week may be short for the Fins, but they know this is their one ticket out of hell. Coles is the most likely to score because no one else hardly ever scores for the Jets.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 23 32 15 18 24 25
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 24 21 15 4 21 9


Miami Dolphins (0-11)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @WAS 13-16 +3 35
2 DAL 20-37 +3.5 40.5
3 @NYJ 28-31 +3 35.5
4 OAK 17-35 -3.5 40
5 @HOU 19-22 +5.5 43
6 @CLE 31-41 +4 45
7 NE 28-49 +17 51
8 NYG 10-13 +9.5 48
9 BYE - - -
10 BUF 10-13 +3 41
11 @PHI 7-17 +10 40.5
12 @PIT 0-3 +16 35.5
13 NYJ   -1 38.5
14 @BUF 9-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
15 BAL 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @NE 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 CIN 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
MIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB John Beck     180,1
RB Jesse Chatman 80,1 10  
RB Patrick Cobbs 70,1 20
TE David Martin   30  
WR Derek Hagan   20  
WR Marty Booker   50  
WR Ted Ginn Jr.   50,1  
PK Jay Feeley 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: If nothing else, the Dolphins have the glory of being the only team that has held their opponent to only three points and lost (at least since post WWII). That's pretty hard to do but in the slopfest of Pittsburgh, it required the entire game to get there. Ricky Williams came in last week and looked grea... oops. Gone again. Jesse Chatman was hurt and Patrick Cobbs is currently the last man standing. But the Fins are playing opponents close, just not quite close enough. For the want of four points in games, the Fins could be 6-5 right now. This is the week that the bad mojo ends. And if it doesn't, hey - the Ravens come to town in week 15.

Quarterback: With two starts under his belt, John Beck hasn't exactly set the passing game back on track but this will be his first week playing in a home game after trips to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh which would test any quarterback, let alone a rookie on a very bad team. Beck is still looking for his first NFL touchdown and should get it here.

Trent Green was still the starter in week three and threw for 318 yards and a score in New York.

Running Backs: Jesse Chatman has a neck injury and may not play this week and the return of Ricky Williams looked like a potentially good thing but after six carries he too was injured in Pittsburgh and is considered day-to-day with a pectoral injury. That leaves the rookie Patrick Cobbs as the only sure thing this week though Lorenzo Booker could be called up as well. I will assume that Cobb is the starter until either Williams or Chatman appear likely to play.

Ronnie Brown was still the starter in week three and ran for 112 yards and scored two touchdowns against the Jets. He added 99 receiving yards on six catches and score via a pass in that game as well.

Wide Receivers: The anemic passing numbers here have erased any fantasy value but Ted Ginn has taken over the starting split end and has a few moments of promise each week and Marty Booker now supplies a possession role akin to tight ends on most teams.

Chris Chambers was still the starter in week three and had 101 yards against the Jets. Booker turned in 60 yards on five receptions.

Tight Ends: With only two games played with Beck, David Martin hasn't done much but did have two catches for 35 yards in Pittsburgh which was better than most weeks.

Martin caught three passes for 31 yards in the previous game against the Jets.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets are horrible against the run this year and whomever ends up as the Miami starting tailback this week should have at least decent numbers. Expect Cobbs or whoever ends up there to score once and turn in at least moderate yardage. This could be a nice bounce back game for RIcky Williams if he can get back on the field.

Beck has done little in his two starts but is back at home for the first time and faces a secondary that has allowed all but on opponent to score a touchdown via the pass (the Skins had 196 rushing yards in that game). Look for the second score of his career in this game taking over the spot that Chambers used to rip up the Jets the first time.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 22 14 29 16 30 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 10 31 17 19 29 20

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday night

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