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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: MIA 6, BUF 20

Update: Marshawn Lynch has returned to limited practice but has been taking a majority of the first team reps. It appears that he will be able to play this week at least on a limited basis but would share the load with Fred Jackson if he plays. I am adding Lynch into the projections.

Just to make the Dolphins woes even worse, Marty Booker has been held out of practice because of his knee on Thursday and may not play. I am removing him from the projections. Also, Jesse Chatman has not practiced this week because of his ankle and is in jeopardy of being inactive this week. I am removing him from the projections and adding in Samkon Gado but since Lorenzo Booker would likely be involved as well, no Miami running back is an attractive play this week.

The Fins are obviously struggling but only lost 10-13 just four weeks ago when they hosted the Bills who are 3-3 at home. Ah forget it. I could try to paint this like a competitive, "anyone can win" game but I am not going to insult your intelligence.

Miami Dolphins (0-12)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @WAS 13-16 +3 35
2 DAL 20-37 +3.5 40.5
3 @NYJ 28-31 +3 35.5
4 OAK 17-35 -3.5 40
5 @HOU 19-22 +5.5 43
6 @CLE 31-41 +4 45
7 NE 28-49 +17 51
8 NYG 10-13 +9.5 48
9 BYE - - -
10 BUF 10-13 +3 41
11 @PHI 7-17 +10 40.5
12 @PIT 0-3 +16 35.5
13 NYJ 13-40 -1 38.5
14 @BUF   +7.5 36.5
15 BAL 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 @NE 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 CIN 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
MIA at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB John Beck     160
RB Jesse Chatman 50
RB Samkon Gado 50    
TE David Martin   20  
WR Derek Hagan   30  
WR Marty Booker   50  
WR Ted Ginn Jr.   40  
PK Jay Feeley 2 FG    
Pregame Notes: Wow. The Dolphins were favored in only their second game this year and had the perfect path out of losing hell with the Jets visiting and yet they ended with the worst loss of the season. Worse than when they played the Patriots? Or the Cowboys? How do you do that? That loss not only let the air out of the tires, it set the entire car on fire. Say hello to 0-16. And by now, the Dolphins honestly deserve that historic distinction. The additional problem now is that Dolphins players are being called at home by psychics wanting to patch them through to some dead relative.

Quarterback: The John Beck era has started painfully and after three games, he has yet to throw a touchdown or top 177 passing yards. The biggest fear here is that they are doing a major disservice to his career by plopping him behind center on such a monumentally bad team. He may never recover from this. It's like getting on the job training as Custer's scout at the Little Bighorn. "Wow, that's a lot of dang indians."

Lemon was the starter in week 10 and only had 131 passing yards against the visiting Bills.

Running Backs: Jesse Chatman is still bothered by his sprained ankle and only had 26 yards on 11 carries last week after gaining just 17 yards on the 11 carries the previous game. The only time this year he has turned in a decent game was a month ago against the Bills when he gained 124 yards on 27 carries. Otherwise, he has never had more than 73 rushing yards in a game. The Fins tried to use Samkon Gado but he only had two yards on two carries. They even broke the wrapper on Lorenzo Booker who only had one run for six yards but did managed to catch six passes for 63 yards. Wonder why that just occurred to them?

I am only going to project for Chatman but watch to see if Booker has action for the second week in a row.

Wide Receivers: How many touchdowns have the Miami wideouts scored since week two? Anyone? Anyone? Buzzzzzz.! The answer is just one in week eight. On the plus side, there is a three way tie for top scorer between Derek Hagen, Ted Ginn and Marty Booker who all have one touchdown this year.

No Miami wideout had more than 29 yards against the Bills in the first meeting.

Tight Ends: At around 20 yards per game, David Martin is comparatively productive in this offense. Not so much compared to any other.

Martin caught four passes for 34 yards versus the Bills this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills are better and at home this time and the Fins are worse and on the road. That's a bad equation and no reason to expect an improvement, especially since the Bills need a win to remain in any hope of a wildcard. The Bills are softer against the run but Chatman is banged up.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 26 16 31 16 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 25 24 26 18 22 4


Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 14-15 +3.5 37
2 @PIT 3-26 +10 37.5
3 @NE 7-38 +16.5 41
4 NYJ 17-14 +3 37.5
5 DAL 24-25 +10 42
6 BYE - - -
7 BAL 19-14 +3 35
8 @NYJ 13-3 +3 37
9 CIN 33-21 +1 43.5
10 @MIA 13-10 -3 41
11 NE 10-56 +15.5 46.5
12 @JAC 14-36 +7.5 36
13 @WAS 17-16 +5.5 37
14 MIA   -7.5 36.5
15 @CLE 16-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
16 NYG 23-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
17 @PHI 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
BUF vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards     180
RB Fred Jackson 50,1 40  
RB Marshawn Lynch 50    
TE Robert Royal   10  
WR Lee Evans   50  
WR Josh Reed   60  
WR Roscoe Parrish   20  
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Bills certainly know how to ruin a tribute to the slain Sean Taylor. Their improbable win in Washington comes after being thrashed by the Patriots and Jaguars and keeps them in at least possible contention for the final wildcard in the AFC that will need a win here and in Cleveland next week before facing off against the Giants and Eagles. That may be a tall order but the two previous losses came with Marshawn Lynch out and he may be returning soon.

Quarterback: The move to Trent Edwards may be a necessary step to getting him into the flow of the NFL but so far six games played have only resulted in one touchdown pass and that was in his first start back in week four. Edwards had a surprising 257 yards in Washington and finally did not throw an interception. He hasn't done much to get wins, but he hasn't been a negative either.

Losman passed for 157 yards and no scores in Miami this season.

Running Backs: There is speculation that Marshawn Lynch could play this week after missing the last three weeks with a bad ankle. But even if he does, he would be limited in the game and besides, it is just the Dolphins coming to town. Why not give him another week to heal and use Fred Jackson again? All Jackson did in his first start was to gain 82 yards on 16 carries on the road in Washington and add on four catches for 69 yards. Makes sense to use Jackson for one more week.

Another notable is that Lynch was an accomplished receiver out of college and yet in just one start, Jackson had more passes thrown to him (6) and catches (4) than Lynch had in any of his nine games. I will assume one more week for Jackson.

Lynch gained 61 yards on 19 carries and scored once in Miami.

Wide Receivers: The Trent Edwards era has done little for the wideouts though Josh Reed chugs along with around 50 or 60 yards per game. Lee Evans has not scored since week nine and had topped out at 65 yards and been as bad as just 19 yards two weeks ago in Jacksonville. Even Roscoe Parrish has had more yards than Evans in these last three weeks.

Evans was the lead receiver in the previous meeting with the Dolphins and caught four passes for 65 yards.

Tight Ends: No reliable fantasy value in Robert Royal regardless of the quarterback.

Match Against the Defense: The previous meeting had the Bills barely nipping the Dolphins but I would expect the Fins to be rather dispirited after last week and on the road against a motivated Bills team. Look for a nice game here by Jackson with one score - if Thomas Jones can score against the Fins then anyone can.

Edwards has a chance here for one score but opponents of the Fins either run wild or they bomb them with the pass. Since there is no reason to expect Edwards to turn in a big game here, look for a minimal effort while the Bills let the Fins beat themselves. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 32 24 26 29 25 24
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 23 27 18 3 29 14

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
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