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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
*Updated

Prediction: MIA 7, NEP 31

Update: Jesse Chatman has been limited in practice but is expected to play in New England where he makes one very bad fantasy start this week, He'll share the load in the best case scenario.

Kyle Brady has been held out of practice with his sprained foot from last weekend and is unlikely to play. Ben Watson has managed limited practice this week but I am not adding him into the projections. He appeared good last week and was a game time scratch.

This may be a mismatch. The Dolphins are coming off their only win of the year while the Pats are shooting for 16-0 and already won 49-28 in Miami during week seven this season. The only thing that has changed is that this is played in New England and the Dolphins are smiling. At least before the game.

Miami Dolphins (1-13)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @WAS 13-16 +3 35
2 DAL 20-37 +3.5 40.5
3 @NYJ 28-31 +3 35.5
4 OAK 17-35 -3.5 40
5 @HOU 19-22 +5.5 43
6 @CLE 31-41 +4 45
7 NE 28-49 +17 51
8 NYG 10-13 +9.5 48
9 BYE - - -
10 BUF 10-13 +3 41
11 @PHI 7-17 +10 40.5
12 @PIT 0-3 +16 35.5
13 NYJ 13-40 -1 38.5
14 @BUF 17-38 +7.5 36.5
15 BAL 22-16 +4 37
16 @NE   +22.5 43.5
17 CIN 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
MIA at NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Cleo Lemon 20,1   160
RB Jesse Chatman 50 10  
RB Lorenzo Booker 10 50  
TE David Martin   10  
WR Derek Hagan   20  
WR Marty Booker   30  
WR Ted Ginn Jr.   30  
PK Jay Feeley   1 XP  
Pregame Notes: Matt Stover should be getting 53 Christmas cards from Miami about now after missing the field goal that could have won THE GAME in overtime. But he missed and then Greg Camarillo entered Miami Dolphin lore with his 64-yard touchdown. It has been a horrific season that only got worse but thanks to the Ravens, nothing else matters in the final two games.

Quarterback: The Dolphins have not named a starter this week but assumedly it will be Cleo Lemon since John Beck never actually threw a score in his four starts and Lemon was just on a winning team last week. Lemon is a dual threat since he has scored as many rushing touchdowns (4) as he has passing scores in his seven games played.

Lemon passed for 236 yards and one interception against the visiting Patriots this year.

Running Backs: The Dolphins rushed for 163 yards against the Pats this year but 76 belonged to Ronnie Brown. Jesse Chatman gained 73 yards and scored once. Chatman would need about 35 carries to get there this week and that is not likely to happen.

Lorenzo Booker is working into the mix now as well and had eight rushes for just 17 yards against the Ravens but turned in six catches for 60 yards. He's had six catches in each of the last three games and should be getting no less work this week since the Dolphins are likely to be in passing situation rather often.

Wide Receivers: Greg Camarillo now has the only non-Chambers 100 yard game when he turned a simple slant into a 64-yard score last week and won the game. Prior to that, Camarillo had only one catch in his two years in the league. Marty Booker returned to the playing field last week and caught eight passes for 88 yards for a season high which is a reflection on how bad the Ravens have become with both starting cornerbacks injured. This remains a motley crew and Booker is gone when the season is over.

No wideout had more than 56 yards against the Pats this year.

Tight Ends: In the only win of the year, in the only game with more than 300 yards since Green left, David Martin had no catches. That's all you need to know.

Match Against the Defense: The Dolphins are on the road and playing without Ronnie Brown this time. The Patriots still care since they want to secure the perfect season and that should see the Fins struggle as they have in all games this year. After three "lower scoring" efforts for the Patriots, they will look to win this game early and could allow the Fins to have some trash time at the end but it would be a major success if they score more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 24 14 28 20 28 29
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 11 10 4 14 2 1

 

New England Patriots (14-0)
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NYJ 38-14 -6.5 40.5
2 SD 38-14 -3 47
3 BUF 38-7 -16.5 41
4 @CIN 34-13 -7.5 54
5 CLE 34-17 -15.5 48
6 @DAL 48-27 -5 52.5
7 @MIA 49-28 -17 51
8 WAS 52-7 -16 48
9 @IND 24-20 -5.5 56.5
10 BYE - - -
11 @BUF 56-10 -15.5 46.5
12 PHI 31-28 -22.5 50.5
13 @BAL 27-24 -20.5 51.5
14 PIT 34-13 -10.5 51
15 NYJ 20-10 -24.5 50.5
16 MIA   -22.5 43
17 @NYG 29-Dec SAT 8:15 PM
NEP vs. MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady     280,3
RB Laurence Maroney 70,1 10  
WR Randy Moss   80,2  
WR Donte Stallworth   40  
WR Jabar Gaffney   50  
WR Wes Welker   90,1  
PK Stephen Gostkowski 1 FG 4 XP  

Pregame Notes: The much anticipated reunion with the Jets was a disappointment thanks to inclement weather that held the game score down and even prompted the Patriots to actually run the ball. Yes, as in hand off multiple times and not throw it over and over. The current forecast is for possible rain but temperatures will be above freezing and more importantly, the wind is expected to be light. Could change but the Patriots delivered many fantasy teams to the playoffs and left them hanging last week. The Patriots are only two wins away from the first sweep since 1972 and the Fins won't be a problem. What could matter is next week in New York but there is a good chance that the Giants won't care about the game if they have locked up the wildcard this week.

Quarterback: After astronomic, often obscene yards and scores this year, Tom Brady comes off a 140 yard effort with no scores and one interceptions. That is like Tiger Woods shooting a 125 for 18 holes in a major tournament. It just doesn't happen. At least until now. After a season full of games with at least three scores, Brady only has three scores in three of the last four games. He also stands at 45 touchdowns on the season which leaves him four short of the record set by Peyton Manning with two games left to play - and just this week is at home. He would need five scores to set a new record and that could be a tall order even against the Dolphins. Brady remains the #1 passer in yardage as well but only has 4235 yards and appears likely to not challenge Marino's single season record of 5084 yards.

Brady passed for 354 yards and six scores in the first meeting with the Dolphins. He could use a repeat of that but the weather is likely to be a factor this week to some degree.

Running Backs: The Pats elected to run the ball last week in the blustery, wet conditions and Laurence Maroney responded with a season high 26 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown. That was only his third score on the season and the only time since week three that he has ran more than 15 times in a game. The work was good to see since the Patriots are likely to play in more bad weather games in the playoffs but Maroney only averaged right at four yards per carry against the Jets. Maroney currently has only 152 carries for 633 yards on the season.

While the Pats rushed for 84 yards in Miami, no runner had more than 31 yards.

Wide Receivers: Randy Moss managed to catch five passes for 79 yards last week but he did not score and currently his 19 touchdowns are three short of Jerry Rice's single season record. He too could fall short of setting a new record but has two games to score three times which is certainly possible. Wes Welker has also fallen off his productive pace from earlier in the season and only had three catches for 30 yards last week and only 18 yards in Baltimore in week 13.

Moss turned just four catches into 122 yards and two scores in Miami while Wes Welker beat up on his old team with nine receptions for 132 yards and two scores. Even Donte Stallworth had 51 yards and a touchdown in that game..

Tight Ends: Benjamin Watson missed the rematch with the Jets due to an ankle injury. Kyle Brady also left the Jets game with an ankle injury so I am not projecting for a Patriots tight end this week. I will update if warranted but of course it will be only unreliable information that comes out unless they practice fully this week.

Match Against the Defense: The Patriots crushed the Dolphins in the last meeting but that was in retribution to losing in Miami last year. The two questions here are what will the weather be like (appears to be okay) and how badly do the Patriots want to chase records with Brady and Moss? I am shooting for some where in the middle but may update later in the week especially if the weather turns worse.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 1 12 1 13 2 3
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 26 27 20 6 29 19

The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
*Updated

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