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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: OAK 7, JAC 27

The Raiders are playing out yet another "not good enough" season and are only 2-5 on the road while the Jaguars come off an impressive win in Pittsburgh and are 5-2 at home. The only chance this is interesting is if the Jags play flat after their big game last week... no... probably not even then.

Oakland Raiders (4-10)
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DET 21-36 -1 39
2 @DEN 20-23 +10 37.5
3 CLE 26-24 +3 40.5
4 @MIA 35-17 +3.5 40
5 BYE - - -
6 @SD 14-28 +9.5 44
7 KC 10-12 -3 37.5
8 @TEN 9-13 +7 41
9 HOU 17-24 -3 41.5
10 CHI 6-17 +3 38.5
11 @MIN 22-29 +5.5 35.5
12 @KC 20-17 +5.5 34.5
13 DEN 34-20 +3 41.5
14 @GB 7-38 +10.5 42
15 IND 14-21 +10.5 45
16 @JAC   +13 40
17 SD 30-Dec SUN 4:15 PM
OAK at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh McCown     150,1
RB Lamont Jordan 30 10  
RB Dominic Rhodes 30 10  
TE Zach Miller   30,1  
WR Jerry Porter   60  
WR Ronald Curry   40  
PK Sebastian Janikowski   1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Raiders followed up their wins over the Chiefs and Broncos with losses against quality teams and the Jaguars will have an even better defense than GB or IND put up. JaMarcus Russell is getting a series per week now and the Raiders just lost Justin Fargas so the only weapon that was working is now gone. The final road game of the year without a decent running back is a likely spot to lay down before the final game at home against the Chargers who the Raiders hope will be resting all their starters.

Quarterback: Josh McCown was named the starter this week and perhaps in 2008 it will not be a weekly guessing game as it has this season. McCown has only started two road games and still never had more than 110 passing yards in either. He has been good for one score in almost every game but he has topped 160 passing yards only once in his last seven starts. He's making Russell look good next year if only be comparison.

Running Backs: And so it ends, not with a bang but with the whimper of Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes playing on the road in Jacksonville. The Raiders have come full circle this year after Justin Fargas injured his MCL last week and will miss the last two games.

Just a bad equation since Jordan had been plodding along and benched and Rhodes never had a decent game to slide back from. The rushing load should be split this week and little if any fantasy value come of it. Fargas has been surprisingly good this year but not nearly good enough to prevent the Raiders from wisely going shopping in the offseason.

Wide Receivers: Ronald Curry comes off his first score in nine games but he rarely ever has more than 40 yards in any game. Jerry Porter has been slightly better in yardage and scored twice in the last three games but there has been no fantasy value here this year worth relying on.

Tight Ends: The progress of rookie Zach Miller has tailed off sharply in the most recent games against good defenses. He as starting to show up with 40 yards per week but only had one catch for around ten yards against both GB and IND. His time will come next year but he has shown at least a bit of promise.

Match Against the Defense: There is a chance that the Jags could be down this week after their big win in Pittsburgh and it's not like the coaches are running through the hallways screaming "THE RAIDERS ARE COMING!". But on the road against a sound defense, there is little chance that it matters regardless. The loss of Fargas should doom the rushing game to minimal impact and no scores.

The Jaguars secondary has given up yards and scores largely because of leading in most games and forcing opponents to throw, Look for the average game here of just one passing score that could end up with Miller since it is a weakness of the Jaguars. But any player on this offense is unreliable in fantasy terms.

Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 21 11 25 25 23 27
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 23 6 13 29 6 4


Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 TEN 10-13 -6.5 37.5
2 ATL 13-7 -10.5 34.5
3 @DEN 23-14 +3 35.5
4 BYE - - -
5 @KC 17-7 -2 35
6 HOU 37-17 -7 37
7 IND 7-29 +3.5 45
8 @TB 24-23 -4 32.5
9 @NO 24-41 +3.5 40
10 @TEN 28-13 +4 35
11 SD 24-17 -3 41
12 BUF 36-14 -7.5 36
13 @IND 25-28 +7 44.5
14 CAR 37-6 +10.5 38
15 @PIT 29-22 +4 39
16 OAK   -13 40
17 @HOU 30-Dec SUN 1:00 PM
JAX vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     170,1
RB Fred Taylor 130,1 10  
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 80,1 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Dennis Northcutt   40  
WR Ernest Wilford   30  
WR Reggie Williams   50,1  
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The win over the Steelers assures the Jags a spot in the playoffs as a wildcard with just one more win which comes this week. The offense has been stellar with a nice balance between rushing and passing and the team has been scoring 24 or more points in each of the last eight games. This could be a spot for a let down but the Raiders are bringing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. No cause for any alarm here.

Quarterback: David Garrard has truly stepped up his play and the Jaguars are starting to peak at just the right time. After being little more than a game manager in the first half of the season, Garrard has scored two or more times in four of the last five games and remained over 230 passing yards in most. His three scores in Pittsburgh was his best of the year going against the premier passing defense no less. After 14 games, the notion that Byron Leftwich ever started over Garrard is hard to fathom. You want error free play? Garrard has scored 16 touchdowns and only thrown two interceptions this year.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor may have been snubbed in the Pro Bowl, but he's enjoying one of the best seasons of his career and has been a huge boon to fantasy owners over the last month with four consecutive 100 rushing yard games and four scores in the last six games. He comes off a season high 147 yards on 25 carries in Pittsburgh as the crowning glory to his season. His success has put a damper on what Maurice Jones-Drew has done in the last month.

Jones-Drew still has maintained his fantasy value in most games and has scored eight times this season but only has two games over 100 rushing yards and less than 55 rushing yards in the four games prior to his 69 yards in Pittsburgh. He's still a definite fantasy start but has lost out on being a stud thanks to Taylor.

Wide Receivers: Reggie Williams has scored eight touchdowns this year but only has 32 catches for 543 yards. He just shows up for a couple of catches most weeks and one of them ends up in the endzone. The passing game here has never been that productive but the Jaguars are scoring so well that the wideouts take turns with touchdowns - except for Williams who has scored in four of the last five games

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has turned into a 30 yard per game sort of tight end but only has two scores on the season. Better than average but not nearly enough to be a fantasy consideration.

Match Against the Defense: The only factor keeping this from being a blow out is how motivated the Jags are to win this game. But they should since it locks down a wild card and lets them rest in week 17. Consider that the road games of the Raiders have allowed at least - and I swear I am not making this up - at least 128 rushing yards to the primary runner of the opponent. very time. This week should be run-run-run and Garrard throwing a score just because he can.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 15 4 16 15 17 14
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 2 31 3 13 13 21

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

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