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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: KC 13, NYJ 16

Update: Eddie Kennison is already called out for the final game because of his ribs.

Here's the chance for one franchise to get a very needed win to end the year. The Chiefs have lost their last eight games and the Jets have lost their last three and yet have an even worse record than the Chiefs. The only difference here is what is better - winning an actual game or having a small effect on the draft position in April? Ah - both teams are going to have great draft slots anyway and the Chiefs are 2-5 on the road and the Ravens already have their own nine game losing streak so one more still doesn't make them the worst. Just second to worse.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-11)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 3-20 +3 38
2 @CHI 10-20 +12 34.5
3 MIN 13-10 -3 33.5
4 @SD 30-16 +13 38.5
5 JAC 7-17 +2 35
6 CIN 27-20 +3 42
7 @OAK 12-10 +3 37.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 22-33 -2.5 38.5
10 DEN 11-27 -3 37.5
11 @IND 10-13 +15 44
12 OAK 17-20 -5.5 34.5
13 SD 10-24 +3.5 43
14 @DEN 7-41 +6.5 37.5
15 TEN 17-26 +4 34
16 @DET 25-20 +4.5 42.5
17 @NYJ   +6 34
KCC at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Damon Huard     220,1
RB Kolby Smith 50 20  
TE Tony Gonzalez   70,1  
WR Eddie Kennison 20
WR Samie Parker   20  
WR Dwayne Bowe   60  
PK John Carney 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: Herman Edwards second season has gone even worse. Letting Trent Green go was probably the best move but expecting Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle to pick up the slack proved optimistic. Larry Johnson held out until he got his big fat paycheck and then followed the lead of so many others by having a bad year that ended in week nine due to injury. The defense held their own in most games but without a high scoring offense anymore, the results were predictable. The question now is if the Chiefs stick with Edwards or find someone else.

Quarterback: The Chiefs wanted Brodie Croyle to take the starting job during training camp and when that never happened, they stuck with Damon Huard though week nine with decent results. Croyle as the starter only threw four touchdowns over six games along with five interceptions and three lost fumbles. And the losing streak is now up to eight but the Chiefs either have to get Croyle on track or admit they do not have a starter and go get one in the offseason. Croyle injured his hand in Detroit when he tried to tackle a guy returning one of his interceptions for a score and may not play this week. I will project for Huard until Croyle is cleared.

Running Backs: Quite a season for the running backs. Larry Johnson held out, got paid, showed up and bowed out. Priest Holmes showed up, worked out, started two and bowed out. Michael Bennett got shipped to Tampa Bay. And Kolby Smith became the last man standing. Johnson will return next year and given the current state of the team, it could all just repeat again in 2008.

Wide Receivers: The two big changes this year were that Eddie Kennison is done being a decent fantasy option and that Dwayne Bowe has a great draft pick who could have been the Offensive Rookie of the Year were it not for Adrian Peterson. For a rookie wideout on a bad team with questionable quarterbacks, Bowe excelled. He currently has 69 catches for 982 yards and five scores - just 18 yards away from his first 1000 yard season. While no other wideout on this team ever had much more than 50 yards in a game and only scored twice as a group, Bowe has been very impressive. He was one of the draft picks that the Chiefs got very correct.

Imagine this - Bowe was drafted 14 picks after Ted Ginn Jr. and only four picks ahead of Robert Meacham.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez is #2 with 1108 yards and has 92 catches on the season. He had 137 yards last week but that was with Croyle out of most of the game. When Croyle plays, Gonzalez has been less productive.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets have been soft against the run this year though Kolby Smith has hardly been making anyone forget about Larry Johnson. This is a road game as well so expect only moderate numbers from Smith and likely no score.

The Jets secondary has never allowed more than 234 passing yards per opponent for the last eight weeks and only Tom Brady (3) and Derek Anderson (2) managed to throw for more than one score against them. Look for a lower effort this week from Huard and even lower if Croyle plays. I like one score here which would almost have to end up with Gonzalez. The secondary is pretty good for the Jets and Huard connects well with Gonzalez.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 27 32 30 4 30 25
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 29 7 11 27 28


New York Jets (3-12)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NE 14-38 +6.5 40.5
2 @BAL 13-20 +9.5 33
3 MIA 31-28 +3 35.5
4 @BUF 14-17 -3 37.5
5 @NYG 24-35 +3 41
6 PHI 9-16 +4.5 43.5
7 @CIN 31-38 +5.5 46.5
8 BUF 3-13 -3 37
9 WAS 20-23 +3.5 35.5
10 BYE - - -
11 PIT 19-16 +9.5 40.5
12 @DAL 3-34 +14.5 47
13 @MIA 40-13 +1 38.5
14 CLE 18-24 +3.5 47.5
15 @NE 10-20 +24.5 50.5
16 @TEN 6-10 +9 38
17 KC   -6 34
NYJ vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kellen Clemens     180
RB Thomas Jones 80    
RB Leon Washington 30,1 20  
TE Chris Baker   50  
WR Brad Smith   30  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   50  
WR Justin McCareins   30  
PK Mike Nugent 3 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: Like Herman Edwards for the Chiefs, the second season for Eric Mangini has not gone nearly as well as 2006 and with only three wins on the year (and two against the Dolphins), the Jets have very little to bring into next year. The addition of Thomas Jones only managed to kill his career and somehow 15 rushing scores in 2006 turned into only four - and just one by Jones. Opting for Trent Edwards was a needed play for the future but made the team suffer through the natural learning curve. The Jets were rarely blown out in any game but were rarely good enough to pull out a win. A win this week would be a major salve for a season gone bad.

Quarterback: Kellen Clemens missed the last two weeks with rib and shoulder injuries but he is expected back this week though Mangini will purposely be noncommittal about it. In five starts this season, Clemens ha sonly thrown for three scores and has five interceptions but he is learning the NFL game and has shown enough promise that he will be the starter next year as well. Clemens has tried to make do with an offense that features little more than Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery as viable receivers but he's been good enough to warrant these loses in the hopes for future wins.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones just topped 1000 yards on the season but he required 285 carries to reach 1021 yards for an average of only 3.6 yards per carry and he has only scored one touchdown all year long. He is rarely used as a receiver and even has Leon Washington typically look better in his brief work in most games. Washington has scored three times this season but rarely ever has more than five carries in a game.

Wide Receivers: Laveranues Coles was put on injured reserve due to a high ankle sprain and finishes his season with 55 receptions for 646 yards and six touchdowns. Coles played injured in almost every game this year thanks to his ankle problems and a concussion. Jerricho Cotchery started the season with two big games but later saw a big decrease when Edwards became the starter. With Pennington playing last week, Cotchery has a season high eight catches for 152 yards and a score. It was only his second touchdown on the year. Neither Brad Smith nor Justin McCareins ever gained more than about 50 yards in any game. This offense really became little more than Coles and mediocre rushing by Jones.

Tight Ends: Though he only had three scores on the season, Chris Baker has been pretty consistent with around 30 or 40 yards in most games with Croyle as the starter. He's been a great back-up fantasy tight end since he usually has at least three or four fantasy points per week but not enough to warrant being a starter.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs have been softer against the run but Jones has done nothing to promote confidence in him. Expect a decent to good yardage game here by Jones but anything more has always been optimistic.

Clemens faces a very good secondary that can manage to cover the one guy that the Jets have left - Cotchery. Expect an average game here which means sub-200 and no scores.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 23 31 17 21 13 24
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 6 23 12 10 28 29

The Huddle
~ 2007 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

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