FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Nothing has proven so time-honored as the serpentine draft in fantasy football. No doubt the initial drafts were all replications of actual drafts so that each team would have the same draft slot each round. However, that produced an imbalance in leagues since the team drafting first not only had the benefit of grabbing the top rated player in the NFL - a huge advantage by itself - it also assured them 2 of the best 13 players, 3 of the best 25 and so on as the advantage continued on.

Serpentine (AKA "snake") order sought to cure that imbalance by reversing the draft order every other round so that the first team goes last in the second round, first in the third, last in the fourth and so on. It also really changed up drafts since depending on where you were drafting, you could have anywhere from 22 picks down to no other picks happening before you draft. Thus created "the swing" where the first and last teams were going twice in a row before waiting until all other teams had also gone twice.

It has worked greatly. Certainly more fair than "standard" drafting and even allows some interesting tactics and strategies for those drafting on either end since they know at least one of every two players they have will either be someone who has fallen or a guy they had to make a reach to get knowing that they would not be there in 20+ picks. Serpentine is certainly the standard now and almost no leagues use a different method - almost.

What has recently come to light is the use of the third round reversal (AKA 3RR). The problem it is attempting to address is that even with serpentine, the first drafter gets three of the first 25 picks in a 12 team league. The 12th team would only be getting three of the first 36 picks (and then also the 37th pick). Problem is that superstars do not much hang out in the fourth round. Drafting first means getting the super stud running back and then being able to access either a top wideout, tight end or quarterback or a mid-tier running back. In most years there are one or two super-backs (Tomlinson most recently) and drafting him has netted an immediate and distinct advantage. Following that up with, say, a top wideout and top quarterback builds a pretty formidable team that could not exist for the team drafting last. And those initial picks will dictate where you go in later rounds.

So - Third Round Reversal does exactly as it says. Using a serpentine draft order, it reverses the third round so that team #1 gets picks 1.01, 2.12, 3.12, 4.12, 5.01, 6.12, 7.01, etc. (it swaps a 3.01 for a 3.12). Team #12 gets 1.12, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01. 5.12, 6.01, 7.12 (it swaps a 3.12 for a 3.01). It is the same thing as serpentine with that third round repeating the order of the second round. Otherwise - all serpentine.

But what advantage would that really create and what disadvantages does it really cure?

To address this question, several of the Huddle message board veterans held a seven round mock draft using serpentine order and then using the same teams, redid the draft by starting over in the third round and drafting with that round reversed. Let's take a look at the resulting teams for the first and last three teams to draft each round. No change of any significance happens to the teams draft 4th through 9th.

The third round for both drafts:

While there was some variation in the two drafts, they basically held the same third round in each.

Did it decrease the advantage of being in the first three teams drafting?

So as far as an advantage being taken away from the first three drafters, our example doesn't really show that happening. It is impossible to compare the two teams completely because the drafting strategy changed with different players available. Those initial rounds are about deciding when to take a position stud and when to just mine a position before it is gone.

But the 3RR draft is an much about removing the disadvantage to those drafting at the end than hurting the first teams to draft. Let's see what changes 3RR allowed for those 10th, 11th and 12th teams to draft in the first round.

So in the final analysis, what does a Third Round Reversal draft do? The answer is that it does help to take away an advantage of the first three teams and decreases the disadvantage of those teams drafting in the final spots of round one but apparently not dramatically. It is not the magic bullet of fairness and it is a small change overall. The bottom line is that is does accord the later round teams with a better draft spot in the third round - undeniable. And it removes an advantage of the early drafters but in all cases, a draft is more about what the team owners do than jockeying the draft order. No two drafts are alike, not even when the same people do them.

The question is if using 3RR would result in a more fairly balanced league. The answer is yes - in theory. In reality, it is more about what you do with the draft picks you have and strategy will always change depending on the players presented to you.

There is one reality with doing this analysis this year. We are coming off the 2007 season where passing numbers were through the roof all over and running back injuries were significantly higher than usual. Since most people draft by pretending that last year is going to happen all over again (and it never does), drafts are taking far more quarterbacks and wide receivers early than ever before. Figure in most years, that swing pick at the 2.12 and 3.01 usually has no more than three or four wideouts and maybe just one quarterback taken. So in previous years, holding the #1 spot often meant you could easily have top three wideouts and quarterbacks waiting for your second and third pick. This year actually makes 3RR look less effective that it would in other years.

My recommendation? If you have a longtime local league - give 3RR a try. It is a complication in the draft - albeit small - and it is almost impossible to really judge if the results are materially big enough to warrant making the change. But 3RR can be an interesting twist for leagues that have been around for many years and I am all for making fantasy football more fair and more interesting. The results may not be quite as big as it may seem on first blush, but there are at least small benefits to making the change. So while drafts are all about the drafters and what they do, I would recommend you have your long-time league consider it. The change will not hurt your league, could make it more fair and overall make the draft a little more interesting.

Hey - if nothing else , it will offer a moment of levity when the guy with the first pick gets out-voted on something.

COMMENTS (page 2 of 2)

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Michael

Posted Jul 15, 2009 6:23pm EDT

I have been running a league for 20 years. I have had a different approach to the draft. I run a serpintine draft but do a complete reorder every odd round. Round 2 is the opposite of round 1, then I redo the 3rd round completely. It is a whole new draft order. Then round 4 is the opposite of round 3. Round 5 is a redraft. What do you think of this?

Bruce

Posted Aug 12, 2008 8:08am EDT

We use a draft grid that averages out the first 8 rounds as evenly as possible. Ex: Rd 1 pick 1, Rd 2 pick 20, Rd 3 pick 27, Rd 4 pick 34, Rd 5 pick 44, Rd 6 pick 56 and so on. This draft grid has been studied and modified by everyone in the league and we would NEVER use a Snake draft again. Snake draft was a 90's thing. I do agree Auction is the Best

Smitty

Posted Aug 9, 2008 11:30am EDT

There is no argument, totally hands down, that auction is the truest and fairest draft style! It takes the draft cheatsheet mentality out of it. The guys that are better prepared, typically have better teams. There is nothing worse than being at a serpentine draft and everyone has the same cheat sheet and as someone is selected the majority of guys yell out what # the guy is on their cheat sheet. This is weak! Guys don't have to do much preparation to luck themselves into an okay team.

Auction puts a little more strategy into it. The first player thrown out for auction could be the rookie TE, RB, WR or QB that you know will be a stud that the rest of your guys never heard of. They won't bid on him because he's too far down on their cheat sheet. The flip side to this is the drunk guy at the end of the serpentine draft selects this guys and steals your sleeper because you had to wait for your turn. If you want LT and Westbrook, they're yours if you are willing to pay for them. You can have a full game plan and if you don't get LT you can guarantee that the owner that got LT paid more than you were willing to pay by bidding the price up. There are many strategies in auction and we could argue then til we're blue in the face about spending early and grabbing studs versus having a solid team across the board with no holes. Either way you can have an impact on EVERY player in the draft if you so choose to place a bid on him. This helps make up for the guy who drafts #6 and religiously takes a player 3 rounds too early and your buddy who is sitting 7th keeps getting a gift with a player that should be off the board but rather he is still there for him.

Not every league has the mentality to switch to auction. It takes an open mind and some owners to step forward and push for it. It took a couple of years to get my established league to go for it. Just like the keeper league idea, you need to plant the seed at this years draft and see if you can vote on it. Tell everyone how well it works in other leagues. I recommend sitting in on an auction draft and bringing some of your league mates to show them how true of a draft the auction style is. It will take time make the change but it is soooo worth it.

If you can't get your guys to switch to an auction from serpentine, why do you think that those afraid of change will go for this 3RR???

Crackerjack

Posted Aug 7, 2008 4:50pm EDT

My league, like Wild Bill, draws for draft position every 2 rounds. It really makes the draft more interesting and tends to create predraft trades.

Geo

Posted Aug 6, 2008 2:57pm EDT

Just like Dave, the guys in my 12 team league hate change. They're terrified of it. We should have implemented the keeper rule 2 years ago. Our point system is such that we are already in a QB friendly league. In the first 15 picks last year 5 QB's were drafted. That's right, FIVE! So, don't be surprised if your league panics & does the same this year.

blips

Posted Aug 6, 2008 1:24pm EDT

Is this really needed? My question is how many 1-4 positions win championships as opposed to 8-12? I really don't know but my guess is it is pretty even.

Wild Bill

Posted Aug 6, 2008 12:00pm EDT

Our league has always gone a step farther, we draw for new draft position every 2 rounds.

David Bugay

Posted Aug 6, 2008 7:25am EDT

Anthony, I would love to, but some of my owners are too enamored with what works now and say "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"!

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