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Ease of Schedule 2.0 - Passing
David Dorey
June 2, 2008
Ease of Schedule 2.0 - Rushing
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2007 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
16 Best Matchups 16 Worst Matchups
@DET 40.7 ATL 28.5
MIN 39.7 @IND 28.3
@NO 39.2 @KC 27.8
@ATL 38.8 @OAK 27.6
DET 37.7 @NE 27.1
@STL 37.5 DAL 26.8
HOU 37.2 BUF 26.5
NO 37.0 PHI 25.6
@ARI 36.5 NYJ 25.6
@CLE 35.4 @TEN 24.7
JAC 35.3 @JAC 24.2
CIN 35.1 OAK 23.4
ARI 34.2 KC 22.4
@BUF 33.9 @TB 21.8
@BAL 33.5 @PIT 19.4
CLE 33.3 IND 19.4
After producing the Ease of Schedule since 1997, I have finally come to conclusions based on lengthy experience and review. While the natural progression was to continually refine this "strength of schedule" until it because lists for individual positions, the reality proven was that it became less accurate and less reliable.

The bottom line is that so many offense use their ball handlers in vastly different ways from one another so that taking it as granular as reviewing "tight ends" was just wildly inaccurate and eventually even misleading.

The reality is that each team passes and rushes the ball - no matter what team you are talking about. There is a commonality among all teams in those two metrics. So I have returned the Ease of Schedule back to being only for rushing numbers (rushing yards and touchdowns scored by running backs) and passing numbers (all passing yardage and scores thrown by a quarterback).

Every team runs with their running backs so that is a direct correlation. Each team passes but you need to use some wisdom there because Philly throws to running backs, the Chargers throw to their tight end and the Bengals only throw to their wide receivers. So passing "ease" has to be applied to each team as they would use their players.

But that is not enough. In my quest to refine tools to be the most effective and accurate as I can, I constantly review the results and methods for improvement. And the change this year is that no longer are the "good" and "bad" matchups related to a team. They are now related to both team and venue. The reality is that many teams play much differently on the road than they do at home. What this season's improved (2.0) Ease of Schedule has done is to take each NFL defense and consider them as two separate entities. One on the road and the other at home. In some cases, it did not matter - both were great for a team (or really bad). In others, it certainly did. Taking the eight home games and eight road games, each had their highest and lowest games removed to eliminate uncharacteristic extremes. Then the per game average fantasy points allowed were determined from the six remaining home and six remaining road games. From a total set of 64 possibilities (32 defenses both home and away), the best and worst 16 matchups were used.

This is the most accurate picture of defenses from last year - hands down. While regular season EOS will not split them out because of a lack of adequate sample size, the preseason EOS considered venue in addition to the defense - it makes a difference. For passing, this still led to a nice split of eight each of home and road games for both the good and bad matchups. But this is much more accurate than we have been in the past. And more accurate than any other you will find.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  EOS Good Bad   EOS Good Bad   EOS Good Bad
CHI 4 7 3 TEN 3 4 1 CHI 2 2 0
SF 3 6 3 CIN 2 2 0 ATL 1 1 0
DET 2 4 2 DAL 2 3 1 DET 1 2 1
TB 2 5 3 NYG 2 3 1 IND 1 2 1
WAS 2 5 3 SF 2 3 1 MIN 1 2 1
DAL 1 4 3 WAS 2 2 0 OAK 1 1 0
IND 1 5 4 NYJ 1 2 1 PHI 1 1 0
PHI 1 3 2 BAL 0 2 2 STL 1 1 0
TEN 1 6 5 CHI 0 2 2 TB 1 1 0
CIN 0 4 4 DEN 0 2 2 TEN 1 1 0
NYG 0 4 4 DET 0 1 1 ARZ 0 1 1
ATL -1 3 4 IND 0 1 1 BAL 0 0 0
CAR -1 4 5 MIN 0 2 2 BUF 0 0 0
CLE -1 4 5 NO 0 1 1 CAR 0 0 0
JAX -1 4 5 OAK 0 2 2 CIN 0 1 1
MIN -1 5 6 PHI 0 0 0 CLE 0 1 1
OAK -1 4 5 PIT 0 2 2 GB 0 1 1
SEA -1 3 4 SEA 0 1 1 KC 0 0 0
ARZ -2 2 4 TB 0 1 1 MIA 0 1 1
BAL -2 3 5 ATL -1 1 2 NE 0 1 1
NO -2 3 5 BUF -1 2 3 NO 0 1 1
PIT -2 4 6 CLE -1 1 2 SEA 0 1 1
STL -2 2 4 GB -1 2 3 SF 0 1 1
BUF -3 3 6 ARZ -2 0 2 WAS 0 1 1
DEN -3 4 7 JAX -2 1 3 DAL -1 0 1
GB -3 4 7 KC -2 1 3 HOU -1 0 1
HOU -3 4 7 MIA -2 1 3 JAX -1 0 1
KC -3 2 5 NE -2 0 2 NYG -1 0 1
MIA -3 3 6 SD -2 0 2 NYJ -1 0 1
NYJ -3 3 6 STL -2 0 2 PIT -1 1 2
NE -5 1 6 CAR -3 0 3 DEN -2 0 2
SD -8 2 10 HOU -4 0 4 SD -3 0 3

Week - By - Week

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @SF MIA @WAS @NYJ BUF DAL BYE @CAR @STL SF @SEA NYG @PHI STL MIN @NE
ATL DET @TB KC @CAR @GB CHI BYE @PHI @OAK NO DEN CAR @SD @NO TB @MIN
BAL CIN @HOU CLE @PIT TEN @IND @MIA OAK @CLE BYE @NYG PHI @CIN WAS PIT @DAL
BUF SEA @JAC OAK @STL @ARI BYE SD @MIA NYJ @NE CLE @KC SF MIA @NYJ @DEN
CAR @SD CHI @MIN ATL KC @TB NO ARI BYE @OAK DET @ATL @GB TB DEN @NYG
CHI @IND @CAR TB PHI @DET @ATL MIN BYE DET TEN @GB @STL @MIN JAC NO GB
CIN @BAL TEN @NYG CLE @DAL @NYJ PIT BYE JAC @HOU PHI @PIT BAL @IND WAS @CLE
CLE DAL PIT @BAL @CIN BYE NYG @WAS @JAC BAL DEN @BUF HOU IND @TEN @PHI CIN
DAL @CLE PHI @GB WAS CIN @ARI @STL TB @NYG BYE @WAS SF SEA @PIT NYG BAL
DEN @OAK SD NO @KC TB JAC @NE BYE MIA @CLE @ATL OAK @NYJ KC @CAR BUF
DET @ATL GB @SF BYE CHI @MIN @HOU WAS @CHI JAC @CAR TB TEN MIN @IND NO
GB MIN @DET DAL @TB ATL @SEA IND BYE @TEN @MIN CHI @NO CAR HOU @JAC @CHI
HOU @PIT BAL @TEN @JAC IND MIA DET BYE @MIN CIN @IND @CLE JAC @GB TEN @OAK
IND CHI @MIN JAC BYE @HOU BAL @GB @TEN NE @PIT HOU @SD @CLE CIN DET @JAC
JAC @TEN BUF @IND HOU PIT @DEN BYE CLE @CIN @DET TEN MIN @HOU @CHI GB IND
KC @NE OAK @ATL DEN @CAR BYE TEN @NYJ TB @SD NO BUF @OAK @DEN SD MIA
MIA NYJ @ARI @NE BYE SD @HOU BAL BUF @DEN SEA OAK NE @STL @BUF SF @KC
MIN @GB IND CAR @TEN @NO DET @CHI BYE HOU GB @TB @JAC CHI @DET @ARI ATL
NE KC @NYJ MIA BYE @SF @SD DEN STL @IND BUF NYJ @MIA PIT @SEA @OAK ARI
NO TB @WAS @DEN SF MIN OAK @CAR SD BYE @ATL @KC GB @TB ATL @CHI @DET
NYG WAS @STL CIN BYE SEA @CLE SF @PIT DAL @PHI BAL @ARI @WAS PHI @DAL CAR
NYJ @MIA NE @SD ARI BYE CIN @OAK KC @BUF STL @NE @TEN DEN @SF BUF @SEA
OAK DEN @KC @BUF SD BYE @NO NYJ @BAL ATL CAR @MIA @DEN KC @SD NE HOU
PHI STL @DAL PIT @CHI WAS @SF BYE ATL @SEA NYG @CIN @BAL ARI @NYG CLE @WAS
PIT HOU @CLE @PHI BAL @JAC BYE @CIN NYG @WAS IND SD CIN @NE DAL @BAL @TEN
SD CAR @DEN NYJ @OAK @MIA NE @BUF @NO BYE KC @PIT IND ATL OAK @KC @TB
SEA @BUF SF STL BYE @NYG GB @TB @SF PHI @MIA ARI WAS @DAL NE @STL NYJ
SF ARI @SEA DET @NO NE PHI @NYG SEA BYE @ARI STL @DAL @BUF NYJ @MIA @STL
STL @PHI NYG @SEA BUF BYE @WAS DAL @NE ARI @NYJ @SF CHI MIA @ARI SEA SF
TB @NO ATL @CHI GB @DEN CAR SEA @DAL @KC BYE MIN @DET NO @CAR @ATL SD
TEN JAC @CIN HOU MIN @BAL BYE @KC IND GB @CHI @JAC NYJ @DET CLE @HOU PIT
WAS @NYG NO ARI @DAL @PHI STL CLE @DET PIT BYE DAL @SEA NYG @BAL @CIN PHI

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