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Ease of Schedule 2.0 - Rushing
David Dorey
June 2, 2008
Ease of Schedule 2.0 - Passing

2007 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

16 Best Matchups		16 Worst Matchups
OAK	27.5	NE	10.4
DET	23.8	@DAL	10.3
SEA	20.6	BAL	10.3
@CHI	20.0	MIN	10.3
@ATL	19.9	WAS	10.2
DEN	19.6	JAC	9.6
NYJ	19.0	NO	9.5
SF	18.6	@NE	9.4
MIA	18.4	TEN	9.3
@MIA	18.0	PIT	9.1
HOU	17.2	@SEA	9.0
@KC	17.1	@GB	8.8
STL	16.9	@WAS	8.4
SD	16.6	@MIN	8.1
@NYJ	16.5	@SD	8.0
BUF	16.3	@PIT	7.5

In case you have jumped here instead of going to passing first (and I would not blame you), the Ease of Schedule for rushing considers only rushing numbers (rushing yards and touchdowns scored by running backs). In the past, passing yardage was included and created a less accurate and reliable picture because of the variation between teams on how they throw to their backs ( or don't).

But that is not enough. Another change this year is that no longer are the "good" and "bad" matchups related to a team. They are now related to both team and venue. The reality is that many teams play much differently on the road than they do at home. What this season's improved (2.0) Ease of Schedule has done is to take each NFL defense and consider them as two separate entities. One on the road and the other at home. In some cases, it did not matter - both were great for a team (or really bad). In others, it certainly did. Taking the eight home games and eight road games, each had their highest and lowest games removed to eliminate uncharacteristic extremes. Then the per game average fantasy points allowed were determined from the six remaining home and six remaining road games. From a total set of 64 possibilities (32 defenses both home and away), the best and worst 16 matchups were used.

This is the most accurate picture of defenses from last year and has a direct bearing on rushing numbers allowed. The best match-ups from last year only had five road venues but the worst contained eight including the six absolute worst venues were all road games. This will result in a better EOS and even more so for rushing.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)				Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)				Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
	EOS	Good	Bad		EOS	Good	Bad		EOS	Good	Bad
BUF	7	9	2	ARZ	2	3	1	BUF	2	2	0
DEN	3	7	4	OAK	2	3	1	GB	2	2	0
MIA	3	7	4	BUF	1	2	1	KC	2	2	0
NE	3	7	4	CHI	1	1	0	MIA	2	2	0
NO	3	6	3	JAX	1	2	1	SD	2	2	0
OAK	3	6	3	KC	1	3	2	SF	2	2	0
KC	2	7	5	SD	1	2	1	STL	2	2	0
MIN	1	3	2	SEA	1	2	1	TB	2	2	0
SD	1	4	3	TB	1	1	0	CAR	1	1	0
SF	1	5	4	ATL	0	1	1	DEN	1	1	0
STL	1	5	4	DEN	0	2	2	IND	1	1	0
TB	1	5	4	MIA	0	2	2	JAX	1	1	0
ARZ	0	5	5	MIN	0	1	1	NO	1	1	0
SEA	0	4	4	NE	0	2	2	CLE	0	0	0
TEN	0	4	4	NO	0	2	2	MIN	0	0	0
JAX	-1	3	4	CIN	-1	1	2	NYJ	0	1	1
NYJ	-1	4	5	DET	-1	1	2	PIT	0	0	0
CAR	-2	3	5	HOU	-1	1	2	SEA	0	1	1
CLE	-2	2	4	NYG	-1	1	2	WAS	0	0	0
GB	-2	2	4	PHI	-1	2	3	ARZ	-1	1	2
PIT	-2	2	4	PIT	-1	1	2	ATL	-1	0	1
ATL	-3	2	5	SF	-1	1	2	CIN	-1	0	1
BAL	-4	2	6	WAS	-1	1	2	NE	-1	0	1
DAL	-4	2	6	BAL	-2	0	2	NYG	-1	0	1
NYG	-4	2	6	CAR	-2	0	2	OAK	-1	1	2
PHI	-4	2	6	CLE	-2	0	2	PHI	-1	0	1
WAS	-4	1	5	DAL	-2	0	2	TEN	-1	0	1
CHI	-5	2	7	GB	-2	0	2	CHI	-2	0	2
DET	-5	2	7	NYJ	-2	1	3	DAL	-2	0	2
HOU	-5	2	7	STL	-2	1	3	DET	-2	0	2
IND	-6	2	8	TEN	-2	1	3	HOU	-2	0	2
CIN	-7	1	8	IND	-4	0	4	BAL	-3	0	3

Week - By - Week

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
ARI	@SF	MIA	@WAS	@NYJ	BUF	DAL	BYE	@CAR	@STL	SF	@SEA	NYG	@PHI	STL	MIN	@NE
ATL	DET	@TB	KC	@CAR	@GB	CHI	BYE	@PHI	@OAK	NO	DEN	CAR	@SD	@NO	TB	@MIN
BAL	CIN	@HOU	CLE	@PIT	TEN	@IND	@MIA	OAK	@CLE	BYE	@NYG	PHI	@CIN	WAS	PIT	@DAL
BUF	SEA	@JAC	OAK	@STL	@ARI	BYE	SD	@MIA	NYJ	@NE	CLE	@KC	SF	MIA	@NYJ	@DEN
CAR	@SD	CHI	@MIN	ATL	KC	@TB	NO	ARI	BYE	@OAK	DET	@ATL	@GB	TB	DEN	@NYG
CHI	@IND	@CAR	TB	PHI	@DET	@ATL	MIN	BYE	DET	TEN	@GB	@STL	@MIN	JAC	NO	GB
CIN	@BAL	TEN	@NYG	CLE	@DAL	@NYJ	PIT	BYE	JAC	@HOU	PHI	@PIT	BAL	@IND	WAS	@CLE
CLE	DAL	PIT	@BAL	@CIN	BYE	NYG	@WAS	@JAC	BAL	DEN	@BUF	HOU	IND	@TEN	@PHI	CIN
DAL	@CLE	PHI	@GB	WAS	CIN	@ARI	@STL	TB	@NYG	BYE	@WAS	SF	SEA	@PIT	NYG	BAL
DEN	@OAK	SD	NO	@KC	TB	JAC	@NE	BYE	MIA	@CLE	@ATL	OAK	@NYJ	KC	@CAR	BUF
DET	@ATL	GB	@SF	BYE	CHI	@MIN	@HOU	WAS	@CHI	JAC	@CAR	TB	TEN	MIN	@IND	NO
GB	MIN	@DET	DAL	@TB	ATL	@SEA	IND	BYE	@TEN	@MIN	CHI	@NO	CAR	HOU	@JAC	@CHI
HOU	@PIT	BAL	@TEN	@JAC	IND	MIA	DET	BYE	@MIN	CIN	@IND	@CLE	JAC	@GB	TEN	@OAK
IND	CHI	@MIN	JAC	BYE	@HOU	BAL	@GB	@TEN	NE	@PIT	HOU	@SD	@CLE	CIN	DET	@JAC
JAC	@TEN	BUF	@IND	HOU	PIT	@DEN	BYE	CLE	@CIN	@DET	TEN	MIN	@HOU	@CHI	GB	IND
KC	@NE	OAK	@ATL	DEN	@CAR	BYE	TEN	@NYJ	TB	@SD	NO	BUF	@OAK	@DEN	SD	MIA
MIA	NYJ	@ARI	@NE	BYE	SD	@HOU	BAL	BUF	@DEN	SEA	OAK	NE	@STL	@BUF	SF	@KC
MIN	@GB	IND	CAR	@TEN	@NO	DET	@CHI	BYE	HOU	GB	@TB	@JAC	CHI	@DET	@ARI	ATL
NE	KC	@NYJ	MIA	BYE	@SF	@SD	DEN	STL	@IND	BUF	NYJ	@MIA	PIT	@SEA	@OAK	ARI
NO	TB	@WAS	@DEN	SF	MIN	OAK	@CAR	SD	BYE	@ATL	@KC	GB	@TB	ATL	@CHI	@DET
NYG	WAS	@STL	CIN	BYE	SEA	@CLE	SF	@PIT	DAL	@PHI	BAL	@ARI	@WAS	PHI	@DAL	CAR
NYJ	@MIA	NE	@SD	ARI	BYE	CIN	@OAK	KC	@BUF	STL	@NE	@TEN	DEN	@SF	BUF	@SEA
OAK	DEN	@KC	@BUF	SD	BYE	@NO	NYJ	@BAL	ATL	CAR	@MIA	@DEN	KC	@SD	NE	HOU
PHI	STL	@DAL	PIT	@CHI	WAS	@SF	BYE	ATL	@SEA	NYG	@CIN	@BAL	ARI	@NYG	CLE	@WAS
PIT	HOU	@CLE	@PHI	BAL	@JAC	BYE	@CIN	NYG	@WAS	IND	SD	CIN	@NE	DAL	@BAL	@TEN
SD	CAR	@DEN	NYJ	@OAK	@MIA	NE	@BUF	@NO	BYE	KC	@PIT	IND	ATL	OAK	@KC	@TB
SEA	@BUF	SF	STL	BYE	@NYG	GB	@TB	@SF	PHI	@MIA	ARI	WAS	@DAL	NE	@STL	NYJ
SF	ARI	@SEA	DET	@NO	NE	PHI	@NYG	SEA	BYE	@ARI	STL	@DAL	@BUF	NYJ	@MIA	@STL
STL	@PHI	NYG	@SEA	BUF	BYE	@WAS	DAL	@NE	ARI	@NYJ	@SF	CHI	MIA	@ARI	SEA	SF
TB	@NO	ATL	@CHI	GB	@DEN	CAR	SEA	@DAL	@KC	BYE	MIN	@DET	NO	@CAR	@ATL	SD
TEN	JAC	@CIN	HOU	MIN	@BAL	BYE	@KC	IND	GB	@CHI	@JAC	NYJ	@DET	CLE	@HOU	PIT
WAS	@NYG	NO	ARI	@DAL	@PHI	STL	CLE	@DET	PIT	BYE	DAL	@SEA	NYG	@BAL	@CIN	PHI

COMMENTS (page 1 of 2)

matt

Posted Oct 2, 2008 12:33pm EDT

when is the updated passing and rushing ease of schedule coming out?

amz

Posted Aug 27, 2008 11:07am EDT

I think a great addition to this report would be total offense and defense EOS with turnover stats. Also someone needs to do a preseason offensive line ranking report! It all starts with the big guys up front!

Posted Aug 26, 2008 11:24am EDT

I have been a huddle member for 3 years and I have always found the ease of schedule charts very useful. I commend David on his work, and I really like the change you made this year to only include rushing yardage for running backs. However, I wonder if the change you made to add home or away splits improves the table or makes it less useful. I can't help but think that dividing home and away games makes them less useful because it halves the sample size for each matchup (each matchup is now based on 8 games instead of 16). And I don't really see how some of this makes intuitive sense. Are the Saints actually better against the run when they are on the road than when they are at home? I guess they were last year, when you look at the 8 games on the road versus the 8 games at home, but with such a small sample size, and with no reasonable explanation, it makes me think this is just a statistical anomaly and has no predictive weight.

Dave, can you post the rest of 2007 fantasy points allowed per game for the middle 32 matchups that were not in the top 16 or bottom 16. That way, we can combine the numbers for each team if we want, or separate them as you did.

I also would love the raw data for each team (i.e. how many fantasy points they gave up each week of the 2007 to each position). Is that accessible anywhere on thehuddle.com?

Keep up the good work!

Larry

Posted Aug 23, 2008 9:50am EDT

LIke the chart buts its useless for the draft. Cant print directly and unless you have a color printer. The colors [beep] . Use different colors - shades of gray best for us laser printer guys... :)

McGinn

Posted Aug 20, 2008 11:23pm EDT

Dave, You sound like a woman and must drive your league CRAZY. If you cant read the chart (and there are many) ask your wives.

Dave

Posted Aug 18, 2008 4:05am EDT

For those of us guys who are color blind (and there are many) can you switch the colors to something other than red/green? Maybe b lue yellow or some other contrasting color? Just a suggestion.

Thanks!

David Dorey

Posted Aug 16, 2008 9:07pm EDT

There is nothing to update. It is created based upon the performances of teams last year - weighted and diced up as I mentioned in the article. I will come out with a new EOS about week 3 or 4 of the season when we have data to use from 2008, but there is nothing to update until the teams play this year.

DEBO

Posted Aug 16, 2008 8:19pm EDT

Please update!!!! It would help alot..This is to old, but it is (very) helpful.$.

Pelchy

Posted Aug 14, 2008 10:33am EDT

DMD...I can help you reduce the hours coloring the cells (if its in a spreadsheet which I think it must be). I am a spreadsheet guru...

matt

Posted Aug 13, 2008 12:05pm EDT

will there be any updating to the ease of schedule for the pass and rush before the season starts

DMD

Posted Jun 4, 2008 11:10pm EDT

Yeah, nothing like taking an hour or two coloring in table cells. But it does present itself nicer in a graphical way to see the strings of green or red.

Brentastic

Posted Jun 4, 2008 10:55pm EDT

DMD - Glad to see you brought back the full color-coded schedule grid for all 32 teams!

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	Ease of Schedule 2.0 Passing
	Fantasy Mock Draft #1
	2008 NFL Draft Fantasy Review
	2008 NFL Draft Team Report Cards

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