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The 2008 Ultimate RBBC Review
John Tuvey / David Dorey
July 15, 2008

Each summer fantasy fanatics pore over depth charts and cheat sheets to determine which running backs they most want and in the back of their mind always looms the fear of that four letter word (acronym actually but stick with me here) - RBBC. The old running-back-by-committee which takes your perfectly good starting runner and has him trot off the field so another back can get the fantasy points (preferably not your opponent's).

The reality with runners sharing carries is twofold really. Running backs split the load because that is the offensive scheme employed or because there simply is no known "best" runner for the team. In many cases, the lack of that dominant runner is not yet known due to injury or the team has a new set of runners. No coach yanks a hot player from a game just to satisfy a game plan. They will use what works and what wins. For some teams, that means more than one runner.

Every team will, given the option, use their running backs to win the game. There is simply far lesser risk handing the ball off than executing a pass play; the old Woody Hayes adage that "only three things can happen when you put the ball in the air, and two of them are bad" still holds true and doesn't even take into account the potential for a quarterback sack. If a team is ahead on the scoreboard, they want to run the clock out. Passing often kills the clock, running usually doesn't. This is why running backs are the most consistent and productive fantasy scorers. Beyond Coach-speak, reporters stretching a story or the endless speculation or mind games, remember this single truth:

The best players play. Guaranteed. Period. It's about winning.

This time of the season is rife with speculation and innuendo. Let's look at facts, changes and best probability. The greatest factor on a RBBC situation is if that offense is designed to use "specialists". Just because the #1 RB for a team is not yet know does not necessarily mean the team will take 16 games to make a choice if they prefer a primary back instead of RBBC.

The statistics you will see show who the primary ball carrier was for each team in each game last year. The stats are computed by each game played and which runner had the most carries in that game. Sum it up and you get how many games each player was the primary ball carrier for his team and the averages of all runs and catches of all team rushers in that game. Reviewing this from a per game perspective is much more accurate than merely doing math to total season numbers. For our purposes, I am defining a team to be RBBC if the lead carrier does not receive at least 75% of the rushing plays considering all runners used in a game, including fullbacks.

Let's take a look at what we are likely to see with how running backs are used this season:

Team By Team Review of 2006 and 2007 Primary Carrier Stats and How they Apply to 2008

Arizona Cardinals   % of All RBs in Gm Avg. Rushing Receiving
Gms Plays Runs Rcvs Plays Att Yards TD Catches Yards TDs
2006 James, Edgerrin 16 82% 90% 93% 25 21 72 0.4 2 14 0.0
2007 James, Edgerrin 16 76% 88% 38% 23 20 76 0.4 2 13 0.0

Since the Cardinals opted not to address their need for a backup/heir to Edge until taking Tim Hightower in the fifth round, all signs point to another heavy workload for James. With continued improvement along the offensive line, Edge’s productivity—which has certainly declined from his Indy days but is still relatively consistent—should hold steady. Hightower, assuming he can leapfrog the under whelming combo of Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington during training camp, could see maybe a half dozen carries if Ken Whisenhunt wants to keep him fresh. However, for the most part Hightower is insurance and the vast majority of the touches will belong to James.

Atlanta Falcons   % of All RBs in Gm Avg. Rushing Receiving
Gms Plays Runs Rcvs Plays Att Yards TD Catches Yards TDs
2006 Dunn, Warrick 15 68% 74% 66% 20 18 73 0.3 1 10 0.1
  Griffith, Justin 1 38% 40% 43% 13 12 57 1.0 1 8 0.0
2007 Dunn, Warrick 14 63% 65% 57% 19 15 49 0.3 3 16 0.0
  Norwood, Jerious 2 45% 44% 47% 10 8 47 0.0 1 29 0.0

It’s a new back (Michael Turner) and a new coaching staff, so take the numbers above with a grain of salt. But here’s a stat to chew on: during Mike Mularkey’s tenure as an OC for the Steelers and Dolphins and as Buffalo’s head coach, when his lead backs played 16 games they handled 80 percent of the team’s carries. In other words, so long as Turner stays healthy, Norwood will be a bit part in this offense once again.

Baltimore Ravens   % of All RBs in Gm Avg. Rushing Receiving
Gms Plays Runs Rcvs Plays Att Yards TD Catches Yards TDs
2006 Lewis, Jamal 16 69% 79% 76% 21 20 71 0.6 1 7 0.0
2007 McGahee, Willis 14 85% 83% 58% 24 21 86 0.5 3 17 0.1
  Anderson, Mike 1 89% 38% 33% 9 8 44 0.0 1 10 0.0
  Smith, Musa 1 52% 48% 63% 25 22 83 1.0 3 8 0.0

There may be a game this season where Cam Cameron uses rookie Ray Rice like he did Michael Turner in San Diego, and it will send McGahee owners into a tizzy while burning up your league’s waiver wires. But there’s nothing to suggest Cameron will use Rice as extensively as, say, the Jaguars use Maurice Jones-Drew. In fact, when Cam was the Chargers’ OC, LaDainian Tomlinson accounted for almost 82 percent of the team’s running back rushing attempts.

Buffalo Bills   % of All RBs in Gm Avg. Rushing Receiving
Gms Plays Runs Rcvs Plays Att Yards TD Catches Yards TDs
2006 McGahee, Willis 12 86% 90% 91% 22 20 71 0.4 2 13 0.0
  Thomas, Anthony 4 79% 83% 78% 23 21 76 0.3 3 16 0.0
2007 Lynch, Marshawn 13 78% 82% 59% 24 22 86 0.5 1 14 0.0
  Thomas, Anthony 2 68% 74% 56% 20 13 39 0.0 6 30 0.5
  Jackson, Fred 1 73% 89% 100% 22 16 82 0.0 4 69 0.0

The totals on the board are correct, and barring injury or another hit-and-run it’s indicative of what Bills’ opponents will see this season: a heavy dose of Lynch. Fred Jackson is becoming a trendy pick, but that’s only because Marshawn’s off-the-field exploits have made the insurance a must-buy.

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