The Huddle on Facebook Facebook   The Huddle on Twitter Twitter   The Huddle Mobile Mobile Welcome, Guest. You are not logged in.   | Login  |  Help
HOME FANTASY DRAFT KIT IN SEASON ARTICLES NEWS STATS FORUMS TEAMS PLAYERS NFL DRAFT NFL ABOUT myHuddle

FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

The Tri-Draft and the What If?
David Dorey
August 20, 2008
Print this page

Have you ever wondered what the impact of when you draft is? Certainly we all know that drafting at the last minute is probably best, but does it really make that much of a difference whether you draft now, or a month ago? To answer that question, I assembled a league of 12 astute drafters and assigned draft spots and then we held a draft at the first of June. Then, in the middle of July we held a second draft using the exact same people in the exact same draft positions. And then, we wrapped up with a third identical draft here in mid-August. Three drafts, all the same team owner picking from the same draft slot. Did we get mirror image teams? Not hardly.

The only consistency among all three drafts were the first three picks. And even that could change if we held it again thanks to Jackson's holdout. The drafters were told to simply create the best teams that they could and that kept changing. Consider the most recent draft results and where those players were selected in the two previous drafts. I have highlighted in blue players that appear to be cooling and used yellow for those who appear to be getting hotter. It is highly subjective but it was how I saw the drafts changing.

Rounds 1 to 8 AUG JUL JUN
RB Tomlinson, Ladainian 1.01 1.01 1.01
RB Jackson, Steven 1.02 1.02 1.02
RB Peterson, Adrian 1.03 1.03 1.03
RB Addai, Joseph 1.04 1.05 1.05
RB Westbrook, Brian 1.05 1.04 1.04
RB Portis, Clinton 1.06 1.06 1.07
WR Moss, Randy 1.07 1.09 1.08
RB Gore, Frank 1.08 1.08 1.12
RB Lynch, Marshawn 1.09 1.07 2.03
WR Wayne, Reggie 1.10 2.02 1.11
RB Bush, Reggie 1.11 1.11 1.09
WR Owens, Terrell 1.12 2.07 2.02
RB Johnson, Larry 2.01 1.12 1.10
WR Johnson, Andre 2.02 2.11 2.10
QB Brady, Tom 2.03 2.04 2.09
WR Fitzgerald, Larry 2.04 2.05 2.08
RB Barber, Marion 2.05 1.10 1.06
WR Colston, Marques 2.06 3.03 3.02
RB Grant, Ryan 2.07 2.01 2.05
QB Manning, Peyton 2.08 2.09 2.06
WR Edwards, Braylon 2.09 2.08 2.11
RB Jones-Drew, Maurice 2.10 2.10 2.04
WR Williams, Roy 2.11 3.12 3.09
RB McGahee, Willis 2.12 2.03 2.07
WR Johnson, Chad 3.01 3.08 3.06
RB Lewis, Jamal 3.02 3.02 2.01
WR Houshmandzadeh, T.J. 3.03 3.05 3.05
RB Jones, Thomas 3.04 4.04 5.02
WR Smith, Steve 3.05 3.01 3.04
WR Holt, Torry 3.06 3.07 3.12
QB Romo, Tony 3.07 3.10 3.01
WR Boldin, Anquan 3.08 5.02 3.08
WR Holmes, Santonio 3.09 4.01 4.01
RB Brown, Ronnie 3.10 3.09 5.08
WR Johnson, Calvin 3.11 4.05 4.05
WR Welker, Wes 3.12 4.06 3.07
TE Witten, Jason 4.01 4.10 4.04
WR Burress, Plaxico 4.02 3.11 3.10
WR Marshall, Brandon 4.03 4.03 3.11
RB Graham, Earnest 4.04 2.12 3.03
TE Winslow, Kellen 4.05 5.08 4.10
RB Jacobs, Brandon 4.06 2.06 2.12
QB Brees, Drew 4.07 4.11 4.07
WR Jennings, Greg 4.08 5.04 4.08
RB Turner, Michael 4.09 3.04 4.06
RB McFadden, Darren 4.10 4.09 4.09
WR Coles, Laveranues 4.11 6.10 5.03
QB Palmer, Carson 4.12 4.12 5.05
RB White, LenDale 5.01 6.05 7.05
WR White, Roddy 5.02 6.06 6.03
WR Cotchery, Jerricho 5.03 6.04 5.06
TE Gates, Antonio 5.04 4.08 4.03
RB Johnson, Rudi 5.05 5.01 5.11
WR Harrison, Marvin 5.06 7.04 7.06
RB James, Edgerrin 5.07 4.02 4.02
WR Bowe, Dwayne 5.08 5.10 5.10
TE Gonzalez, Tony 5.09 5.09 6.01
WR Evans, Lee 5.10 6.02 5.09
RB Smith, Kevin 5.11 5.11 5.12
RB Maroney, Laurence 5.12 5.07 4.11
RB Forte, Matt 6.01 5.03 7.03
RB Young, Selvin 6.02 6.09 6.07
TE Shockey, Jeremy 6.03 7.01 8.07
QB Roethlisberger, Ben 6.04 7.03 6.04
WR Curtis, Kevin 6.05 7.10 6.05
RB Stewart, Jonathan 6.06 4.07 5.07
RB Parker, Willie 6.07 3.06 4.12
QB Anderson, Derek 6.08 5.05 8.12
WR Chambers, Chris 6.09 6.08 8.08
TE Cooley, Chris 6.10 6.03 6.12
TE Daniels, Owen 6.11 9.11 9.08
WR Driver, Donald 6.12 6.07 5.01
TE Heap, Todd 7.01 5.12 8.02
WR Burleson, Nate 7.02 8.06 8.06
WR Ward, Hines 7.03 6.12 6.06
QB Manning, Eli 7.04 10.08 10.03
TE Clark, Dallas 7.05 7.06 8.09
WR Berrian, Bernard 7.06 7.11 6.09
RB Taylor, Fred 7.07 7.07 7.11
RB Williams, DeAngelo 7.08 8.05 8.05
WR Moss, Santana 7.09 8.07 9.01
RB Mendenhall, Rashard 7.10 7.05 6.08
QB McNabb, Donovan 7.11 5.06 6.02
WR Gonzalez, Anthony 7.12 7.12 8.01
Def Chargers 8.01 8.01 8.03
RB Williams, Ricky 8.02 9.02 9.06
Def Vikings 8.03 7.02 7.02
RB Jones, Julius 8.04 6.01 5.04
QB Cutler, Jay 8.05 7.08 7.08
WR Galloway, Joey 8.06 7.09 7.01
WR Brown, Reggie 8.07 8.11 7.07
WR Gaffney, Jabar 8.08 11.06  
RB Johnson, Chris 8.09 10.03 9.05
QB Hasselbeck, Matt 8.10 9.07 7.10
QB Delhomme, Jake 8.11 9.12 7.12
RB Taylor, Chester 8.12 8.08 10.09
Rounds 9 to 16 AUG JUL JUN
WR Crayton, Patrick 9.01 10.12 9.12
WR Engram, Bobby 9.02 6.11 8.04
Def Bears 9.03 8.10 8.10
QB Favre, Brett 9.04 12.07  
WR Jackson, Vincent 9.05 14.11 11.01
RB Jones, Felix 9.06 9.08 9.07
WR Meachem, Robert 9.07 11.07  
Def Patriots 9.08 11.08 10.01
WR Mason, Derrick 9.09 8.12 9.02
TE Davis, Vernon 9.10 13.10 14.02
RB Torain, Ryan 9.11 9.03 12.01
QB Bulger, Marc 9.12 10.11 6.11
RB Rice, Ray 10.01 15.11 15.08
WR Stallworth, Donte' 10.02 8.09 9.04
RB Bradshaw, Ahmad 10.03 11.11 11.11
Def Cowboys 10.04 14.04 12.02
WR Rice, Sidney 10.05 9.04 12.05
TE Miller, Zach 10.06 14.01 13.02
TE Scheffler, Tony 10.07 14.06 11.1
Def Giants 10.08 12.08 14.06
RB Thomas, Pierre 10.09 12.03 16.03
WR Walker, Javon 10.10 9.10 9.10
QB Garrard, David 10.11 8.02 6.10
QB Rivers, Philip 10.12 11.01 10.08
WR Johnson, Bryant 11.01 10.02 9.11
Def Seahawks 11.02 11.10 9.09
QB Campbell, Jason 11.03 12.05 10.10
Def Ravens 11.04 14.12 14.12
RB Watson, Kenny 11.05 11.05  
QB Rodgers, Aaron 11.06 10.07 10.07
QB Schaub, Matt 11.07 10.06 8.11
RB Norwood, Jerious 11.08 12.12 12.09
RB McAllister, Deuce 11.09 8.03 11.03
QB Leinart, Matt 11.10 12.02 13.08
TE Smith, L.J. 11.11 14.02 13.03
WR Hester, Devin 11.12 15.05  
QB Young, Vince 12.01 10.09 11.04
TE Miller, Heath 12.02 12.04 14.09
PK Folk, Nick 12.03 13.08 13.11
PK Crosby, Mason 12.04 15.02 14.03
WR Bruce, Isaac 12.05 10.01 11.02
WR Robinson, Laurent 12.06 11.03 10.06
Def Packers 12.07 14.07 12.07
RB Jackson, Brandon 12.08    
WR Hackett, D.J. 12.09 13.04 10.11
PK Gostkowski, Stephen 12.10 13.05 13.07
RB Slaton, Steve 12.11 12.11 12.06
RB Fargas, Justin 12.12 9.06 12.04
Def Titans 13.01 16.10  
RB Brown, Chris 13.02 12.06 12.12
RB Morris, Maurice 13.03 12.01 16.01
WR Hardy, James 13.04 15.08 12.10
RB Jordan, Lamont 13.05    
TE Crumpler, Alge 13.06 11.04 13.09
RB Hightower, Tim 13.07 16.11  
QB Edwards, Trent 13.08   15.09
QB Kitna, Jon 13.09 11.12 11.12
RB Green, Ahman 13.10 9.01 10.12
WR Clayton, Mark 13.11 13.06 11.06
WR Ginn Jr., Ted 13.12 16.01 13.04
RB Dunn, Warrick 14.01 10.04 13.10
PK Scobee, Josh 14.02 13.11 15.12
TE Olsen, Greg 14.03 15.07 15.07
TE McMichael, Randy 14.04 11.02 12.11
WR Jackson, Darrell 14.05 13.12 13.01
PK Kaeding, Nate 14.06 13.07 14.05
WR Hagan, Derek 14.07    
TE Lee, Donald 14.08 14.10 14.08
PK Vinatieri, Adam 14.09 14.09 14.04
WR Porter, Jerry 14.10 8.04 7.04
PK Graham, Shayne 14.11 13.09 15.05
WR Muhammad, M. 14.12 13.03  
TE Boss, Kevin 15.01    
RB Jones, Kevin 15.02 14.05  
TE Watson, Ben 15.03   14.01
TE Utecht, Ben 15.04 16.09  
PK Dawson, Phil 15.05    
PK Gould, Robbie 15.06 16.07 15.01
Def Jaguars 15.07 9.09 15.04
PK Rackers, Neil 15.08    
Def Steelers 15.09 15.04 10.05
WR Branch, Deion 15.10 14.03 12.03
Def Colts 15.11 16.02 16.10
TE Keller, Dustin 15.12    
PK Bironas, Rob 16.01 15.03 15.03
QB Jackson, Tarvaris 16.02 16.04 16.06
Def Buccaneers 16.03    
WR Thomas, Devin 16.04   15.10
WR Bennett, Drew 16.05 15.01 11.05
TE Carlson, John 16.06    
RB Perry, Chris 16.07    
WR Taylor, Courtney 16.08    
WR Booker, Marty 16.09    
Def Cardinals 16.10    
RB Booker, Lorenzo 16.11 12.09  
PK Brown, Josh 16.12 15.10 16.09

Notice that there were 13 players that were drafted for the first time ever during the August draft. That's a full round's worth pf players that no one wanted in either of the two initial drafts. And likewise, those two previous drafts had their own unique players with 17 players drafted in July but not August. And 12 players were drafted in June only. That all totals up to an astounding 41 players who were not drafted in at least one of the drafts.

Drafted in July, Not August JUL JUN
RB Morris, Sammy 9.05 12.08
WR Wilford, Ernest 10.05 15.02
WR Williams, Reggie 10.10 10.02
RB Peterson, Adrian CHI 11.09 10.04
QB Russell, JaMarcus 12.10 15.11
WR Curry, Ronald 13.01 11.09
WR Gage, Justin 13.02 9.03
RB Pittman, Michael 14.08 13.05
RB Charles, Jamaal 15.06 13.06
RB Foster, De'shaun 15.09  
PK Reed, Jeff 15.12 16.07
QB Warner, Kurt 16.03 16.05
WR Williams, Demetrius 16.05  
Def Bills 16.06 16.08
WR Battle, Arnaz 16.08  
PK Stover, Matt 16.12  
Drafted only in June JUN
RB Benson, Cedric 7.09
RB Betts, Ladell 11.07
RB Jackson, Fred 11.08
WR Patten, David 13.12
WR Williams, Roydell 14.07
RB Bell, Tatum 14.10
RB Bush, Michael 14.11
RB Duckett, T.J. 15.06
RB Williams, Carnell 16.02
WR Avery, Donnie 16.04
PK Tynes, Lawrence 16.11
RB Rhodes, Dominic 16.12
     
     
     
     

The case for waiting on holding your draft is never hard to make anyway and this shows the dramatic change that occurs for the same set of people with the same draft pick over three drafts held a month apart from each other. The only reason to hold a draft earlier - other than you have too many of them to wait until the end - is that the earlier drafts usually favor the most prepared drafters. This was done by a dozen very good drafters - easily above average - and yet had all this change.

It would be interesting to hold one more right before the season but the results would not doubt be every bit as dramatic in the changes made. But this has shown how dynamic conventional wisdom is and how much people change over the weeks of the summer. 29 players only were taken once overall. Either wait on your draft - or have fun in free agency.

   >You must be a Huddle Member to continue reading this article or feature.
Already a Member?  Log In Below:
Username:
Password:
Remember me?

Forgot your password?

Become a Huddle Member today.

Join or Renew Now!

Want to know more?
Member Benefits (In other words, why join?)

 

Related Articles

Average Draft Position (ADP) Tool
Picking Players That Score a Lot of Points
The Attack of the Two-Headed Fantasy QB
Ultimate RBBC Review
a d v e r t i s e m e n t