FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Have you ever wondered what the impact of when you draft is? Certainly we all know that drafting at the last minute is probably best, but does it really make that much of a difference whether you draft now, or a month ago? To answer that question, I assembled a league of 12 astute drafters and assigned draft spots and then we held a draft at the first of June. Then, in the middle of July we held a second draft using the exact same people in the exact same draft positions. And then, we wrapped up with a third identical draft here in mid-August. Three drafts, all the same team owner picking from the same draft slot. Did we get mirror image teams? Not hardly.

The only consistency among all three drafts were the first three picks. And even that could change if we held it again thanks to Jackson's holdout. The drafters were told to simply create the best teams that they could and that kept changing. Consider the most recent draft results and where those players were selected in the two previous drafts. I have highlighted in blue players that appear to be cooling and used yellow for those who appear to be getting hotter. It is highly subjective but it was how I saw the drafts changing.

Notice that there were 13 players that were drafted for the first time ever during the August draft. That's a full round's worth pf players that no one wanted in either of the two initial drafts. And likewise, those two previous drafts had their own unique players with 17 players drafted in July but not August. And 12 players were drafted in June only. That all totals up to an astounding 41 players who were not drafted in at least one of the drafts.

The case for waiting on holding your draft is never hard to make anyway and this shows the dramatic change that occurs for the same set of people with the same draft pick over three drafts held a month apart from each other. The only reason to hold a draft earlier - other than you have too many of them to wait until the end - is that the earlier drafts usually favor the most prepared drafters. This was done by a dozen very good drafters - easily above average - and yet had all this change.

It would be interesting to hold one more right before the season but the results would not doubt be every bit as dramatic in the changes made. But this has shown how dynamic conventional wisdom is and how much people change over the weeks of the summer. 29 players only were taken once overall. Either wait on your draft - or have fun in free agency.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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Coach

Posted Aug 20, 2008 4:19pm EDT

How do you explain Garrard dropping from the 6th round to the 10th? Did I miss something?

OMG

Posted Aug 20, 2008 2:07pm EDT

Earnest Graham makes me laugh. Why are people so down on him? I don't see him being out performed by a host of crap running backs being taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Reggie Bush?....MJD?....and even Frank Gore? I will wager a six of Pabst (bottles--of course) that Graham has more Fantasy value than Gore this year. Who wants a piece?

Dominate

Posted Aug 20, 2008 1:58pm EDT

I actually read a book that said you should draft as early as possible (within reason like begging of August) so you could use the waiver wire to grab several players after the draft as they come out of the woodwork.

RJ

Posted Aug 20, 2008 6:58am EDT

This is an interesting article, particularly with Game 3 of the preseason approach - historically the game where we get to see the closest approximation of the starting lineups for Week 1. With that in mind, at what stage would you be starting to take serious looks at the guys who are apparently warming up fast (Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, Ray Rice) but still more than likely Free Agents. Or starting to jettison guys who don't seem to be showing up as had been hoped (Ronald Curry, Randy McMichael, Vince Young)?

Basically, with this information taken into account, and with Game 3 approaching - in Leagues where the draft has already taken place, at what stage in the preseason should you start acting on it?

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