In an ideal fantasy draft, we all want to get players that outperform their draft position, or at least live up to it. For instance, if you are drafting 5th you want to draft a player in the first round that finishes in the top 5 for fantasy points. Actually since the first 5 picks of most any draft will be running backs, at worst you want to get one that is going to rank in the top 5 at the position. Drafting players that fall below their expected level drag your team down, and can lead to a soul crushing state of depression by mid-season. And who among us needs that?
So rather than tell you who I think you should draft, I am going to try to help you avoid the landmines. These picks are based on PPR flex leagues, and the general area in which the players are being drafted. The point here is not necessarily to predict only “busts” but picking out guys that I think are overvalued in relation to their draft position. In some cases I offer alternatives I prefer. Whether draft or auction leagues, the guys who get value generally win and those who overpay tend to lose. And we hate that.
This is my 4th year penning this article, and in that time I have hit on about 75% of my anti-picks. So while some of these may seem outlandish to you, I regret to inform you that most of them are correct.
However, in some cases of course I am completely wrong. When I make a mistake it tends to be a nasty one and I stepped in a big pile of nasty last year with Randy Moss. After that and the ensuing public humiliation, I considered taking less risks with this list, but how much fun would that be? Let’s dive right in with a first rounder as usual.
Tom Brady
The first one is so easy it is almost like cheating. Yeah, I know, he is coming off the greatest season by a quarterback ever. But therein lies the problem. Has there been a quarterback in the history of quarterbacks that followed up a huge year with another huge year? No. And every one of them looked just as rock solid as Brady looks to you right now.
I’m not going to tell you that Brady will be a huge bust this season. That would be a ludicrous statement. But you will probably have to take him with your first round pick if you want him. And in my opinion, if you are taking a quarterback that high in the draft he damn well better be numero uno at the position by a fair margin. Statistically, that is unlikely to be the case. While I agree that having one of the top quarterbacks is probably a bit more important in fantasy leagues right now than it has been in the recent past, I just don’t see enough of a difference between Brady and Manning, Romo, and Brees to take that first round leap at QB.
I’m not telling you not to draft Brady, but I just think you are bucking heavy odds if you expect a repeat of last year’s remarkable performance. Brady’s previous season high TD total was 28.
One final thought. Would it be out of the realm of possibility for Belichick to zig when everyone thinks they have figured out his zag?
Eli Manning
After his uncharacteristic performance during the Giants unlikely playoff run, Eli is sure to get plenty of interest in fantasy circles this year. He is being drafted as a starter by those poor wretches that wait until 9 or 10 quarterbacks are off the board. That is probably a mistake. There is little doubt that Eli’s impressive playoff run will give him some much needed confidence, but should that give you the confidence to go into battle with him as you fantasy starter? I don’t think so.
Granted, the pickings are slim when you get down to the part of the draft where Eli is being taken. But if I were in such a position I would probably roll the dice with someone like Delhomme or Schaub instead. If you are waiting that long in the draft to take a quarterback wouldn’t you rather have some serious upside?
Manning is not a horrible pick. He is a perfect pick if you just want someone you can plug into your lineup every week that will likely play all 16 games. Eli is not an injury risk like Delhomme or Schaub. But he probably doesn’t have Schaub’s upside either. Despite the fact that some will tag him as an upside player this season I expect Manning to plug along about the same, maybe a bit better than he has in the past. And that will probably disappoint owners that draft him expecting more.
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